Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 721
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2021, 1:00 PM CDT for 18 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 24, 2021, 1:00 PM CDT (18:00 UTC)
- Expired
- May 24, 2021, 3:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
Counties Finney County, KS, Gove County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Ness County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -227 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 650 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 185 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 138 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
174
ACUS11 KWNS 241800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241800
KSZ000-COZ000-242000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0721
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021
Areas affected...portions of western KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 241800Z - 242000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1-2
hours. A watch will likely be needed by 19-20z. Some tornado
potential along with damaging gusts and large hail is expected.
DISCUSSION...A broad cumulus field near the KS/CO border into much
of western KS has begun to deepen in the vicinity of the surface low
and near a remnant outflow boundary extending west to east across
west-central KS. Latest visible satellite imagery has shows at least
one failed attempt at convective initiation, and surface
observations in comparison to regional forecast soundings indicate
convective temperatures have been reached near and south of the
outflow boundary/surface low. Moderate instability is already
evident across the region, aided by low to mid 60s F surface
dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Given little to no
inhibition, thunderstorms are likely to develop in the next 1-2
hours.
Sufficient effective shear will support organized storms capable of
large hail and damaging gusts. Some increased tornado potential is
possible near the surface low and outflow boundary, where low level
vorticity is maximized and surface dewpoints have climbed into the
64-65 F range. Steepening low level lapse rates and increasing
moisture is aiding in quite a bit of low level instability, with 0-3
km MLCAPE greater than 125 J/kg present. This may increase tornado
potential in a narrow corridor near the surface low and along the
outflow boundary. With time, storms may grow upscale into a forward
propagating bow moving eastward across western KS toward evening.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/24/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 38619983 38019989 37789999 37470053 37330105 37270173
37450201 37650226 37890229 38700219 39350154 39540108
39420051 39120004 38619983SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 7:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Morton | 118 min |
| May 23, 7:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Sherman | 67 min |
| May 23, 8:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Logan and 7 more | 5 hr |
| May 23, 9:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan, Sherman and 2 more | 2 hr |
| May 24, 1:29 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Finney, Gove, Graham, Grant and 18 more | 9 hr |
| May 24, 3:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gove, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan, Thomas | 63 min |
| May 24, 5:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Decatur, Finney, Gove, Grant, Hamilton, Kearny and 7 more | 113 min |
| May 24, 6:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Decatur, Norton | 36 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.