Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 722
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2021, 3:07 PM CDT for 44 counties in Texas. It was in force for 113 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 24, 2021, 3:07 PM CDT (20:07 UTC)
- Expired
- May 24, 2021, 5:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 113 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 44 counties
Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Borden County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Garza County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Moore County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Wheeler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 491 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -250 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1035 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 42 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 136 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
519
ACUS11 KWNS 242008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242007
TXZ000-NMZ000-242200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021
Areas affected...TX Panhandle/South Plains and portions of eastern
NM
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 242007Z - 242200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon and become more widespread this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary risks. Trends are
being monitored for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch prior to 21-22z.
DISCUSSION...Moderate/pockets of strong MLCAPE has developed across
the Texas Panhandle/adjacent South Plains this afternoon, to the
east of a dryline near the TX/NM border. The supplemental 19z
Amarillo sounding sampled steepening mid-level lapse rates but also
a notable cap. Current expectations are for at least scattered
thunderstorms to develop by 21-22z along the front/dryline as
continued heating helps remove CINH. Although generally weak
southwesterly mid-level flow exists over the region, effective shear
of around 20-25 kts will be sufficient for intense multicell
structures and perhaps transient supercells given the degree of
instability. Large hail and damaging gusts will be possible
initially, along with at least some risk for a brief tornado for a
storm along the dryline. Upscale growth into a quasi-linear complex
with time should result in an increase in the severe wind potential,
with a continued large hail risk with the strongest convective
elements.
Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch
prior to 21-22z.
..Bunting/Guyer.. 05/24/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35140294 36120290 36410214 36430107 36310061 35880024
34570010 33420012 32940070 32600125 32510195 32550253
32690289 32970319 34760298 35140294SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 7:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hartley, Oldham, Sherman | 118 min |
| May 24, 3:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Armstrong, Bailey, Borden, Briscoe, Carson and 34 more | 7 hr |
| May 24, 6:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Crosby, Dawson and 14 more | 91 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.