Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 502

May 3, 20219 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 3, 2021, 5:12 PM CDT for 9 counties in Texas. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 3, 2021, 5:12 PM CDT (22:12 UTC)
Expired: May 3, 2021, 6:45 PM CDT
In force: 93 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe thunderstorm watch 132

Counties Borden County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Garza County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3894 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 130 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

434 
ACUS11 KWNS 032212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032212 
TXZ000-NMZ000-032345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NM into west TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132...

Valid 032212Z - 032345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132
continues.

SUMMARY...The environment remains favorable large hail as storms
move eastward this afternoon. Some of the hail may be very large (2+
inches in diameter) in west Texas. Isolated severe wind gusts may
also occur.

DISCUSSION...A severe supercell in Terry County TX with a pronounced
TBSS per KLBB radar will likely remain capable of producing large to
perhaps very large hail in the short term as it moves eastward
towards Lynn County. Other convection has also developed along and
north of a cold front across parts of southeastern NM and west TX.
Even though this activity will likely remain slightly elevated in a
post-frontal regime, adequate low-level moisture behind the front,
moderate mid-level flow, and a long, straight hodograph in forecast
soundings through the mid/upper levels will likely continue to
support organized severe storms. The greatest threat for large hail
will likely focus across parts of west TX in association with the
ongoing severe supercell. The airmass downstream is characterized by
1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and the presence of somewhat steepened
mid-level lapse rates. Large to very large (1 to 2+ inch) hail
should remain the primary severe threat in the short term. But, with
steep low-level lapse rates also present just behind the cold front,
isolated severe wind gusts may also occur.

..Gleason.. 05/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33600394 33620244 33430114 32960076 32510073 32480178
            33040368 33400415 33600394

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 3, 12:44 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hartley, Moore, Oldham	2 hr
May 3, 2:24 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Borden, Cochran, Dawson, Fisher, Gaines and 12 more	2 hr
May 3, 3:14 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Dallas, Delta and 24 more	2 hr
May 3, 3:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Andrews, Borden, Cochran, Crosby, Dawson, Gaines and 12 more	6 hr
May 3, 3:48 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bell, Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Coryell and 27 more	7 hr
May 3, 5:55 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bosque, Cooke, Denton, Grayson, Johnson, Somervell and 1 more	95 min
May 3, 5:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Frio, La Salle, Medina	94 min
May 3, 6:19 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Callahan, Eastland, Fisher, Haskell, Jack, Jones and 8 more	116 min
May 3, 6:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Callahan, Eastland, Fisher, Haskell, Jack, Jones and 8 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.