Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 497
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 3, 2021, 1:24 PM MDT for Lea County, New Mexico; 18 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 3, 2021, 1:24 PM MDT (19:24 UTC)
- Expired
- May 3, 2021, 3:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
Counties Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Garza County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kent County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3894 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -59 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 130 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
255
ACUS11 KWNS 031925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031924
TXZ000-NMZ000-032130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021
Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico and west Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 031924Z - 032130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely in the coming hours
across far southeast New Mexico and into west Texas. Damaging winds
and hail (potentially large hail) will be the primary hazards. A
severe thunderstorm watch is likely.
DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery shows a growing cluster of
agitated cumulus along a stalled cold front northwest of Hobbs, NM
eastward towards Brownsfield, TX. Convective initiation may begin
within this cluster in the next 1-2 hours as MLCIN continues to
decrease amid daytime heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing.
MLCAPE values are slowly increasing to near 1000 J/kg, but will
likely continue to increase through the late afternoon to near 2000
J/kg. 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear will support organized
convection, and the orientation of the deep-layer shear vectors into
the cooler air mass to the north should support discrete cells.
Storms are expected to propagate to the east along the frontal
boundary into west TX. Mid-level lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km,
coupled with strong deep-layer shear, will support a hail threat,
and a few instances of large hail are possible across west TX in the
more unstable air mass. Low-level lapse rates near 8 C/km will also
help support a damaging wind threat. A severe thunderstorm watch is
likely in the coming hours to address this concern.
..Moore/Grams.. 05/03/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32830419 33620390 33710297 33390204 33250097 33170023
32729966 32189981 31870030 31920165 32180310 32520389
32830419SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 11:44 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colfax, De Baca, Guadalupe, Harding, Lincoln, Los Alamos and 6 more | 2 hr |
| May 3, 2:15 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chaves, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Roosevelt | 6 hr |
| May 3, 2:14 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Dallas, Delta and 24 more | 2 hr |
| May 3, 2:48 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Coryell and 27 more | 7 hr |
| May 3, 4:12 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Borden, Cochran, Dawson, Gaines, Garza, Lynn and 3 more | 93 min |
| May 3, 4:55 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bosque, Cooke, Denton, Grayson, Johnson, Somervell and 1 more | 95 min |
| May 3, 4:56 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Frio, La Salle, Medina | 94 min |
| May 3, 5:19 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Callahan, Eastland, Fisher, Haskell, Jack, Jones and 8 more | 116 min |
| May 3, 5:36 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Callahan, Eastland, Fisher, Haskell, Jack, Jones and 8 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.