Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 492

May 3, 202112 counties in New Mexico; 5 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 3, 2021, 11:44 AM MDT for 12 counties in New Mexico; 5 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 3, 2021, 11:44 AM MDT (17:44 UTC)
Expired: May 3, 2021, 1:45 PM MDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 5%

Counties Colfax County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Los Alamos County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Union County, NM, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Moore County, TX, Oldham County, TX

The radar

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3212 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -63 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -37 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

681 
ACUS11 KWNS 031744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031744 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-031945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031744Z - 031945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible through
mid-afternoon and may pose an isolated hail threat. A watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across northeast NM
within an upslope flow regime against the southern Rockies and
across the western TX/OK Panhandles within a region of weak
isentropic lift over a stalling cold frontal zone. This convection
is being supported by elevated instability rooted above 700 mb with
MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg common across the region. Strong
upper-level flow in the vicinity of a synoptic wave over the Four
Corners is supporting 30-45 knots of effective bulk shear, which
will support some storm organization. Discrete to storm clusters
appear likely and will favor a hail threat with any stronger updraft
pulses. Storm motions northward into the cooler air mass will limit
the severe wind potential, and storm interactions may limit storm
longevity. The isolated, and potentially short duration, of this
threat precludes a watch issuance, though a more robust severe
threat is still expected to develop further south along the frontal
boundary across west TX later this afternoon.

..Moore/Grams.. 05/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   34340370 34020465 33460508 33290516 33100542 33150568
            33550586 34130593 34490606 35310647 35810636 36410601
            36700527 36510366 36730282 36670239 36170180 35480183
            34930228 34800304 34340370

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 3, 1:24 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lea	2 hr
May 3, 2:15 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Chaves, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Roosevelt	6 hr
May 3, 2:14 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Dallas, Delta and 24 more	2 hr
May 3, 2:48 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bell, Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Coryell and 27 more	7 hr
May 3, 4:12 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Borden, Cochran, Dawson, Gaines, Garza, Lynn and 3 more	93 min
May 3, 4:55 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bosque, Cooke, Denton, Grayson, Johnson, Somervell and 1 more	95 min
May 3, 4:56 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Frio, La Salle, Medina	94 min
May 3, 5:19 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Callahan, Eastland, Fisher, Haskell, Jack, Jones and 8 more	116 min
May 3, 5:36 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Callahan, Eastland, Fisher, Haskell, Jack, Jones and 8 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.