Mesoscale Discussion 422

Issued

Apr 24, 2021, 11:05 AM CDT (16:05 UTC)

Expired

Apr 24, 2021, 12:30 PM CDT

In force

85 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Tornado watch 106

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108Apr 24, 1:15 PM CDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 109Apr 24, 3:00 PM CDT

737 
ACUS11 KWNS 241606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241605 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-241730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0422
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 106...

Valid 241605Z - 241730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 106 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for all severe hazards will persist across
northwest Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia for the next
several hours.

DISCUSSION...A west-east mesoscale convective system stretches
across portions of the northwest Florida Panhandle into southern
Georgia. To the south of this thunderstorm complex, warm, moist air
continues to stream northward off the Gulf of Mexico. This has
contributed to an increase in mixed-layer CAPE across the region on
the order of 400-600 J/kg the past two hours. Recent radar imagery
suggests this instability increase is being realized as evidenced by
an increase in thunderstorm updraft intensity and lightning activity
over the last hour. Strongly veering-with-height wind profiles
across the region have resulted in effective deep-layer shear on the
order of 60 knots per recent KTLH VAD data. The combination of
instability and deep-layer shear will maintain a severe threat for
at least the next few hours. Strong 0-1 kilometer shear values
around 40-50 knots and significant veering-with-height wind profiles
in the 0-3 kilometer layer resulting in 0-3 kilometer storm-relative
helicity values on the order of 500-700 m2/s2 suggest that a risk
for embedded meso-vortices will be possible with this MCS.

Additional Florida Panhandle counties may need to be eventually
added to Tornado Watch #106 as the ongoing MCS continues to slowly
move south into this afternoon.

..Marsh.. 04/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30618710 31038610 31338363 31548238 31128233 30728260
            30478327 30318440 30438580 30618710

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.