Alert archive / Alabama / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 416

April 24, 20218 counties in Alabama; 6 counties in Florida; 8 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 24, 2021, 1:00 AM CDT for 8 counties in Alabama; 6 counties in Florida; 8 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 24, 2021, 1:00 AM CDT (06:00 UTC)
Expired
Apr 24, 2021, 3:30 AM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch
80%
All 22 counties

Baldwin County, AL, Coffee County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Washington County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Forrest County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Perry County, MS, Stone County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2021-04-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2021-04-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 156 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
873 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
156 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
263 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

767 
ACUS11 KWNS 240600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240600 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-240830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

Areas affected...southern Mississippi and Alabama into the Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 240600Z - 240830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will evolve eastward out of Louisiana into southern
Mississippi next few hours, with a severe threat developing into
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle later tonight. Damaging gusts and
a couple tornadoes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms currently exist from southern LA
into southern MS, with a few cells now extending east of WW 104 near
the MS/AL border. This zone is near a convectively enhanced warm
front which is expected to lift north across far southern AL and the
FL Panhandle after 08-09Z.

Subtle midlevel height falls will occur tonight across the region,
as a shortwave trough continues east across the Arklatex. Ahead of
this feature, southerly 850 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will
persist, aiding theta-e advection and possibly stalling the
southward progress of the rain-cooled air. This may setup a
favorable zone for storms to ride along the front, as Bunkers
motions veer to 240 or 250 degrees tonight. As dewpoints rise into
the 68-70 F range, effective SRH will also increase, providing a
favorable environment for supercells, and/or organized bows capable
of damaging winds with 65 kt effective deep-layer shear.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 04/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30188857 30118945 30388968 30648955 30888930 31358931
            31478930 31578782 31618608 31508578 31308560 30898549
            30478559 30178592 30238628 30298677 30218731 30168807
            30188857

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 24, 1:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington, Escambia, Geneva and 2 more3 hr
Apr 24, 1:23 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Escambia, Mobile and 2 more8 hr
Apr 24, 3:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Mobile, Washington116 min
Apr 24, 4:26 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCConecuh, Covington, Escambia, Monroe, Washington2 hr
Apr 24, 5:22 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCCoffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston9 hr
Apr 24, 7:29 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston91 min
Apr 24, 12:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Escambia, Marengo and 4 more2 hr
Apr 24, 1:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAutauga, Baldwin, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Choctaw and 23 more8 hr
Apr 24, 1:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, Colbert and 22 more113 min
Apr 24, 3:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Clarke, Coffee and 19 more95 min
Apr 24, 4:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBibb, Blount, Calhoun, Chambers, Cherokee, Chilton and 15 more4 hr
Apr 24, 5:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Bullock, Coffee, Dale, Henry, Houston and 1 more94 min
Apr 24, 6:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Chambers, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, Coosa and 6 more2 hr
Apr 24, 9:10 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNassau95 min
Apr 24, 9:35 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaker, Columbia, Duval, Hamilton, Nassau, Suwannee7 hr
Apr 24, 11:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Gadsden, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon and 4 more85 min
Apr 24, 3:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDuval, Nassau85 min
Apr 23, 8:30 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Amite, Claiborne, Copiah, Covington, Forrest and 15 more8 hr
Apr 23, 10:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAmite, Forrest, George, Hancock, Lamar, Marion and 6 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.