Mesoscale Discussion 251

Issued

Mar 25, 2021, 9:02 AM CDT (14:02 UTC)

Expired

Mar 25, 2021, 11:00 AM CDT

In force

118 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Northeast Alabama radar (KHTX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

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• Tornado Watch 50Mar 25, 11:25 AM CDT

516 
ACUS11 KWNS 251402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251402 
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-251600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0902 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...northern Alabama...far
southern Tennessee and far northwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251402Z - 251600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will pose a hail and wind risk
through the late morning hours across the northern AL region. The
severe potential will increase during the early afternoon and into
the evening hours as additional surface-based storms develop.

DISCUSSION...Mid-morning regional radar shows a swath of elevated
convection ongoing from northeastern MS into northern AL associated
with a zone of strong warm air advection between 850-700 mb along
the synoptic warm front. Morning observed and forecast soundings
indicate these storms are mostly elevated and deep-layer flow
oriented along the axis of initiation suggest a clustered storm mode
may continue in the near-term. Although this convection is on the
fringes of the better instability (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE with higher
values to the south/southwest), deep-layer shear is very favorable
for organized convection with 60-70 knots of effective bulk shear.
While storm interactions may limit the coverage of severe convection
for the next couple of hours, a few strong to severe storms are
possible and will primarily pose a wind/hail risk for the next 1-2
hours.

The severe potential is expected to increase across this region by
mid-day and through the afternoon/evening hours. Partly cloudy skies
and a northward flux of upper 60s/low70s dewpoints behind this
early-morning convection will allow for diurnal
heating/destabilization that will support surface-based convection
(and a higher severe threat). Although a watch is not anticipated in
the near-term, a watch will be needed later today.

..Moore/Hart.. 03/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34858858 35198808 35428725 35478606 35248530 34898495
            34308486 33898520 33488547 33198649 33138789 33318854
            33758876 34238884 34858858

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.