Alert archive / Kentucky / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 51

March 25, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 25, 2021, 3:48 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 25, 2021, 3:48 PM CDT (20:48 UTC)
Expired
Mar 25, 2021, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 123 counties

Alexander County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Martin County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Scott County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Washington County, IN, Allen County, KY, Ballard County, KY, Barren County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Larue County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Logan County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Warren County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bedford County, TN, Benton County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Chester County, TN, Clay County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Decatur County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Macon County, TN, Madison County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Perry County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, Weakley County, TN, White County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
70%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
60%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
60%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

36 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 25, 4:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXDavidson, Maury, Williamson29 min
Mar 25, 4:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXDavidson, Sumner, Williamson, Wilson37 min
Mar 25, 4:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXRobertson, Sumner25 min
Mar 25, 4:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAllen, Barren, Simpson, Warren46 min
Mar 25, 5:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXHickman, Humphreys, Perry30 min
Mar 25, 5:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBarren, Edmonson, Hart, Warren36 min
Mar 25, 5:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKHardin, Larue, Nelson24 min
Mar 25, 5:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGHardeman, McNairy49 min
Mar 25, 6:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBullitt, Hardin, Larue, Nelson, Spencer31 min
Mar 25, 6:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGChester, Decatur, Hardin, Henderson, McNairy46 min
Mar 25, 6:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHGibson, Posey, Vanderburgh, Warrick47 min
Mar 25, 6:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGDecatur, Hardin, McNairy62 min
Mar 25, 6:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKHenry, Oldham, Shelby37 min
Mar 25, 6:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Logan, Simpson, Warren35 min
Mar 25, 6:49 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGHardin30 min
Mar 25, 7:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXHickman, Lewis, Maury, Williamson26 min
Mar 25, 7:04 PM CDTTornado WarningOHXLewis, Perry, Wayne41 min
Mar 25, 7:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningINDDaviess, Greene, Martin45 min
Mar 25, 7:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXHickman, Lewis, Maury, Williamson9 min
Mar 25, 7:36 PM CDTTornado WarningOHXLawrence, Lewis, Maury, Wayne39 min
Mar 25, 7:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXDavidson, Williamson38 min
Mar 25, 8:08 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKButler, Grayson, Ohio37 min
Mar 25, 8:13 PM CDTTornado WarningOHXDavidson, DeKalb, Rutherford, Smith, Williamson, Wilson32 min
Mar 25, 8:35 PM CDTTornado WarningOHXBedford, Marshall, Maury, Rutherford, Williamson25 min
Mar 25, 8:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXBedford, Giles, Marshall, Maury, Rutherford34 min
Mar 25, 8:41 PM CDTTornado WarningOHXSmith, Trousdale, Wilson34 min
Mar 25, 8:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningINDBrown, Jackson, Lawrence, Monroe43 min
Mar 25, 8:49 PM CDTTornado WarningOHXRutherford26 min
Mar 25, 9:01 PM CDTTornado WarningOHXJackson, Macon, Smith14 min
Mar 25, 9:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXCannon, DeKalb, Rutherford, Smith, Wilson36 min
Mar 25, 9:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKGrayson, Hardin, Hart, Larue33 min
Mar 25, 9:21 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKGrayson, Hardin, Larue24 min
Mar 25, 9:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXDeKalb, Putnam, White35 min
Mar 25, 9:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKHardin, Hart, Larue, Nelson33 min
Mar 25, 9:45 PM CDTTornado WarningLMKHardin, Larue, Nelson30 min
Mar 25, 10:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBoyle, Green, Larue, Marion, Mercer, Nelson and 2 more29 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2021-03-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 60 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2021-03-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 168 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
60 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-88 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
753 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
168 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
113 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

077 
WWUS20 KWNS 252045
SEL1  
SPC WW 252045
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-260400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 51
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Illinois
  Southern Indiana
  Western and Central Kentucky
  Southeast Missouri
  Northeast Mississippi
  Western and Middle Tennessee

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon
from southern Illinois southward into west Tennessee and track
across the watch area.  Rapidly strengthening winds aloft will
increase the risk of damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles north of Evansville IN to 90
miles south southwest of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 50...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 25, 2:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 15 more117 min
Mar 25, 5:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Barren, Breckinridge, Butler, Caldwell, Calloway and 23 more83 min
Mar 25, 9:02 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFranklin, Giles, Lawrence, Lincoln, Marion, Moore and 1 more118 min
Mar 25, 10:12 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFranklin, Giles, Lincoln, Marion, Moore3 hr
Mar 25, 11:26 AM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCFranklin, Giles, Lawrence, Lincoln, Moore, Wayne9 hr
Mar 25, 2:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Benton, Cannon, Cheatham, Chester, Davidson and 16 more2 hr
Mar 25, 4:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBledsoe, Blount, Bradley, Hamilton, Loudon, McMinn and 5 more119 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2021Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2021Tornado Watches in Indiana, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.