Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 265

March 25, 202117 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 25, 2021, 7:36 PM CDT for 17 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 25, 2021, 7:36 PM CDT (00:36 UTC)
Expired
Mar 25, 2021, 9:00 PM CDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 51

Counties Bedford County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Davidson County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Moore County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Warren County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2021-03-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 290 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2021-03-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 657 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
290 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-73 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
615 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
85 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
657 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
631 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.0
Supercell composite
7.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

677 
ACUS11 KWNS 260037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260036 
TNZ000-260200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Areas affected...Middle TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...

Valid 260036Z - 260200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues.

SUMMARY...Some increase in the tornado and damaging wind threat is
possible this evening across middle Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in storm intensity has been noted with
storms approaching middle TN this evening, with a cell showing
midlevel rotation across Wayne County as of 0030Z, and other
convection increasing near and to the southwest of Nashville. Very
strong midlevel flow/deep-layer shear will continue to support the
potential for organized storms. The tornado threat with the Wayne
County cell, and any other supercell that can evolve over the next
1-2 hours, may increase as it moves into a region where low-level
flow is less veered (compared to areas further west) and effective
helicity values are more favorable, as noted on the 00Z BNA sounding
and recent VWP data from KOHX. Otherwise, the damaging wind threat
may increase with more linear convective elements, as low/midlevel
flow continues to increase across the region through the evening.

..Dean.. 03/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35278788 36478666 36508617 36328575 35768557 35308574
            35288676 35248746 35278788

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 25, 7:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFranklin, Giles, Lawrence, Lincoln, Wayne30 min
Mar 25, 7:57 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCFranklin, Giles, Lawrence, Lincoln, Moore, Wayne3 hr
Mar 25, 9:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Bledsoe, Cannon, Clay, Coffee, Cumberland and 18 more83 min
Mar 25, 9:26 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Bledsoe, Bradley, Campbell, Cumberland, Fentress and 14 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.