Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 246
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 24, 2021, 9:25 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 65 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 24, 2021, 9:25 PM CDT (02:25 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 24, 2021, 10:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 65 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 67 counties
Baldwin County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Washington County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Ascension Parish, LA, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Grant Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, LaSalle Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Rapides Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Marion County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Warren County, MS, Wayne County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS
The nearest sounding before it
Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 2.4 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 109 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -186 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 681 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 281 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 382 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 7.0
The text
As transmitted.
032
ACUS11 KWNS 250226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250225
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-250330-
Mesoscale Discussion 0246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021
Areas affected...southern/central Louisiana into southern
Mississippi and southwestern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 250225Z - 250330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe storm may develop within a warm
advection regime across the region tonight. A WW issuance is not
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms have maintained
themselves over the past several hours within a broad warm-advection
regime just north of a front near the coast. The frontal zone
itself separates an unstable and weakly capped regime with 400-600
m2/s2 0-3km SRH noted via the wind profiler at KLIX recently. Most
of the convection is slightly elevated atop the warm frontal zone,
though recent indications are that a couple of cells have acquired
right-moving characteristics. Storms that can move right of the
mean storm motion vector may pose a risk for hail and damaging wind
gusts, though their slightly elevated nature may limit a more robust
tornado threat. As low-level wind fields increase to around 60
knots, the warm frontal regime and isolated severe risk should
gradually shift northward toward the I-20 and U.S. 82 corridors over
the next few hours.
..Cook/Grams.. 03/25/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31779261 32239214 32459161 32419011 32158844 31138731
30368718 29968771 29918952 29949088 30169206 30539256
31249254 31779261SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 9:02 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Cleburne, Colbert, Cullman and 21 more | 118 min |
| Mar 25, 10:12 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bibb, Blount, Colbert, Cullman, DeKalb, Etowah and 22 more | 3 hr |
| Mar 25, 10:58 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colbert, Fayette, Franklin, Lamar, Lawrence, Marion and 2 more | 3 hr |
| Mar 25, 11:26 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Autauga, Bibb, Blount, Calhoun, Chambers, Cherokee and 39 more | 9 hr |
| Mar 25, 12:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bibb, Calhoun, Clay, Cleburne, Shelby, Talladega | 2 hr |
| Mar 25, 1:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colbert, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Lamar, Lawrence and 4 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 25, 3:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bibb, Chilton, Choctaw, Dallas, Greene, Hale and 8 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 25, 4:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bibb, Chilton, Coosa, Perry, Shelby, Talladega | 60 min |
| Mar 25, 5:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Randolph | 60 min |
| Mar 25, 11:00 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, Livingston, Orleans, Saint Charles and 6 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 25, 2:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcorn | 2 hr |
| Mar 25, 3:48 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alcorn | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.