Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1890
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 24, 2021, 3:28 PM CDT for 16 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 24, 2021, 3:28 PM CDT (20:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 24, 2021, 5:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 531
Counties Bates County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Daviess County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Henry County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1036 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -73 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1015 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 368 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 374 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 7.7
The text
As transmitted.
189
ACUS11 KWNS 242028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242028
MOZ000-242200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1890
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
Areas affected...Portions of western MO
Concerning...Tornado Watch 531...
Valid 242028Z - 242200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 531 continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat, including the potential for a
few tornadoes, should focus across parts of western Missouri through
5 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms is moving over northwestern MO
and the Kansas City metro as of 2020Z. One tornado was reported
earlier with this convection, and the latest VWP from KEAX shows
rapidly strengthening winds in the 0-1 km layer, with nearly 200
m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH present. 20Z mesoanalysis shows 1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear, which is more than
sufficient for supercells. Tornadoes will remain possible with this
convection in the short term, especially along/near a surface warm
front which extends from a surface low near the KS/MO border across
northern/central MO. Large hail and damaging winds will also be a
concern with any sustained supercell. These storms will move
eastward across parts of western MO over the next hour or two, and
should pose the greatest severe threat across Tornado Watch 531
through 5 PM CDT.
..Gleason.. 10/24/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38119457 39319423 39819432 40179436 40159336 39979302
39239297 38419328 37919350 37789416 37869455 38119457SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 9:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll and 26 more | 3 hr |
| Oct 23, 9:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll and 24 more | 7 hr |
| Oct 24, 2:13 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Audrain, Boone, Buchanan, Caldwell, Callaway and 24 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 24, 12:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Audrain, Barry, Barton, Benton, Boone, Callaway and 60 more | 3 hr |
| Oct 24, 2:06 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Andrew, Audrain, Barry, Barton, Bates and 83 more | 9 hr |
| Oct 24, 3:50 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Audrain, Callaway, Cole, Franklin, Gasconade, Lincoln and 8 more | 85 min |
| Oct 24, 5:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis | 3 hr |
| Oct 24, 5:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Benton, Boone, Callaway, Camden and 41 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 24, 5:44 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Madison, Mississippi and 8 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.