Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1886

October 23, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 23, 2021, 9:14 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 23, 2021, 9:14 PM CDT (02:14 UTC)
Expired
Oct 23, 2021, 11:45 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
60%
All 59 counties

Appanoose County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Lee County, IA, Page County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Adams County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clark County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Marion County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Seward County, NE

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 194 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-10-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-10-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 339 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
616 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
339 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
493 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

112 
ACUS11 KWNS 240214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240214 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1886
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0914 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Areas affected...far northeast Kansas and southeast
Nebraska...northern Missouri...far western Illinois and southern
Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 240214Z - 240445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to develop around 03Z over
northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska, and persist eastward across
northern Missouri and into western Illinois. Large hail is possible
with the strongest cells.

DISCUSSION...A warm front will gradually lift north across eastern
KS and MO tonight, with increasing lift as a 50-60 kt low-level jet
develops. Theta-e advection is forecast to be maximized over
southeast NE into northern MO, and moistening just off the surface
should eventually lift the capping inversion seen on 00Z soundings
between 850 and 700 mb.

Temperatures aloft become cooler with northern extent, with 500 mb
values of -12 to -13 C expected over the MCD area. Forecast
soundings suggest instability will be sufficient to produce hail, in
combination with 40-50 kt effective deep-layer shear.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39399238 39459562 39579678 39989727 40029737 40889735
            40889167 40689115 40469091 39599098 39389123 39399238

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 24, 2:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Greene2 hr
Oct 24, 12:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Jersey3 hr
Oct 24, 2:06 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Brown, Calhoun, Greene, Jersey, Pike9 hr
Oct 24, 5:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Clark and 39 more3 hr
Oct 24, 5:44 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Bond, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Clark and 47 more7 hr
Oct 23, 9:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Appanoose, Clarke, Davis, Decatur, Fremont and 7 more7 hr
Oct 24, 3:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBates, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass, Daviess, Grundy and 10 more92 min
Oct 24, 3:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Callaway, Cole, Franklin, Gasconade, Lincoln and 8 more85 min
Oct 24, 5:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Audrain, Benton, Boone, Callaway, Camden and 41 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.