Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 533

October 24, 202153 counties in Illinois; 4 counties in Kentucky; 14 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 24, 2021, 5:44 PM CDT for 53 counties in Illinois; 4 counties in Kentucky; 14 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 24, 2021, 5:44 PM CDT (22:44 UTC)
Expired
Oct 25, 2021, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 71 counties

Alexander County, IL, Bond County, IL, Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Mason County, IL, Menard County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Perry County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Richland County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Saline County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Union County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Washington County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Madison County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Perry County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
70%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
50%
Ten or more severe wind reports
80%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

43 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 24, 5:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXCass, Menard, Morgan, Sangamon, Scott49 min
Oct 24, 6:06 PM CDTTornado WarningILXCass, Morgan, Scott24 min
Oct 24, 6:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXChampaign, McLean, Vermilion34 min
Oct 24, 6:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatILXCass, Mason, Menard, Morgan, Sangamon, Tazewell62 min
Oct 24, 6:37 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningILXCass, Morgan, Scott3 hr
Oct 24, 6:38 PM CDTTornado WarningILXMenard, Sangamon26 min
Oct 24, 7:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXDeWitt, Logan, McLean, Macon, Menard, Sangamon and 1 more41 min
Oct 24, 7:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXMonroe51 min
Oct 24, 7:48 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXIron, Madison, Reynolds, Saint Francois27 min
Oct 24, 8:03 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXMonroe, Randolph42 min
Oct 24, 8:09 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXSainte Genevieve, Saint Francois40 min
Oct 24, 8:10 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXIron, Madison, Reynolds50 min
Oct 24, 8:23 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXIron, Madison, Reynolds52 min
Oct 24, 8:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXMonroe, Randolph, Saint Clair48 min
Oct 24, 8:34 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatLSXRandolph41 min
Oct 24, 8:42 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedPAHPerry48 min
Oct 24, 8:48 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatLSXMadison, Saint Francois27 min
Oct 24, 9:00 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXClinton, Randolph, Saint Clair, Washington45 min
Oct 24, 9:03 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatPAHPerry57 min
Oct 24, 9:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXMonroe, Saint Clair54 min
Oct 24, 9:08 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatLSXRandolph40 min
Oct 24, 9:11 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXIron, Madison49 min
Oct 24, 9:12 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLSXIron, Madison4 hr
Oct 24, 9:15 PM CDTTornado Warning EmergencyTornado observedCatastrophic damage threatLSXRandolph19 min
Oct 24, 9:33 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXSaint Clair30 min
Oct 24, 9:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Perry57 min
Oct 24, 9:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHJackson48 min
Oct 24, 9:48 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXBond, Clinton, Madison42 min
Oct 24, 9:57 PM CDTTornado WarningILXChristian, Macon, Shelby21 min
Oct 24, 9:58 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXMarion, Washington16 min
Oct 24, 10:01 PM CDTTornado WarningPAHJefferson6 min
Oct 24, 10:05 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningPAHPerry6 hr
Oct 24, 10:12 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLSXMadison4 hr
Oct 24, 10:12 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningPAHBollinger6 hr
Oct 24, 10:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXClinton, Fayette, Marion62 min
Oct 24, 10:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXFayette, Marion26 min
Oct 24, 10:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHBollinger, Cape Girardeau51 min
Oct 24, 10:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXClay, Effingham33 min
Oct 24, 11:13 PM CDTTornado WarningPAHCape Girardeau18 min
Oct 24, 11:20 PM CDTTornado WarningPAHBollinger, Cape Girardeau25 min
Oct 24, 11:34 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningPAHJackson6 hr
Oct 24, 11:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHAlexander, Union38 min
Oct 24, 11:41 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningPAHBollinger3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 335 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-10-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-10-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 120 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
972 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
120 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
162 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

505 
WWUS20 KWNS 242241
SEL3  
SPC WW 242241
ILZ000-MOZ000-250600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
545 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and Southern Illinois
  Southeast Missouri

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 545 PM
  until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop eastward across Missouri into
Illinois this evening, with strong winds aloft increasing the risk
of severe storm activity.  Damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and
large hail will be possible across this region.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Champaign IL to
20 miles southeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 531...WW 532...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 23, 9:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Hancock3 hr
Oct 24, 2:13 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Greene2 hr
Oct 24, 12:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Jersey3 hr
Oct 24, 2:06 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Brown, Calhoun, Greene, Jersey, Pike9 hr
Oct 24, 5:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Clark and 39 more3 hr
Oct 23, 9:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll and 24 more7 hr
Oct 24, 3:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBates, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass, Daviess, Grundy and 10 more92 min
Oct 24, 3:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Callaway, Cole, Franklin, Gasconade, Lincoln and 8 more85 min
Oct 24, 5:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Audrain, Benton, Boone, Callaway, Camden and 41 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2021Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2021Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.