Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1895

October 24, 202111 counties in Illinois; 10 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 24, 2021, 8:17 PM CDT for 11 counties in Illinois; 10 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 24, 2021, 8:17 PM CDT (01:17 UTC)
Expired
Oct 24, 2021, 10:15 PM CDT
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 533
All 21 counties

Clinton County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Marion County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Perry County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Union County, IL, Washington County, IL, Bollinger County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, Perry County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Wayne County, MO

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 290 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2021-10-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2021-10-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 371 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-286 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
585 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
64 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
371 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
467 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

314 
ACUS11 KWNS 250117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250117 
ILZ000-MOZ000-250315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1895
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0817 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Areas affected...southeast Missouri into southern Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 533...

Valid 250117Z - 250315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 533 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest tornado threat is currently over southeastern
Missouri, and is expected to shift into southern Illinois.

DISCUSSION...A trio of supercells currently extends from Ste.
Genevieve into Reynolds County MO, with strong mesocyclones noted on
radar. Storm mode appears complex with substantial precipitation
ahead of the circulations. 

These storms are currently near the instability axis, with MLCAPE
around 1500 J/kg. Dewpoints rapidly decrease toward the Wabash/Lower
Ohio Valleys, but favorable instability should remain in place
toward the MS River and into parts of southern Illinois. Here, 0-1
SRH exceeds 300 m2/s2, which is quite favorable for tornadoes and
supercells producing damaging wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 10/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37028960 36829059 36949122 37239123 37709065 38149057
            38519017 38808910 38698864 38398841 37688907 37028960

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 24, 10:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Bond, Champaign, Christian, Clay, Clinton and 31 more2 hr
Oct 24, 10:34 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCDunklin, Pemiscot4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.