Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 534

October 24, 202126 counties in Arkansas; Dunklin County, Pemiscot County, Missouri; 4 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 24, 2021, 10:34 PM CDT for 26 counties in Arkansas; Dunklin County, Pemiscot County, Missouri; 4 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 24, 2021, 10:34 PM CDT (03:34 UTC)
Expired
Oct 25, 2021, 2:14 AM CDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 32 counties

Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Cross County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Perry County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Dyer County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Obion County, TN

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

4 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 24, 11:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGarland, Saline21 min
Oct 24, 11:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLawrence, Randolph40 min
Oct 25, 12:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGClay, Greene40 min
Oct 25, 1:18 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGClay2 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2021-10-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1375 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2021-10-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 168 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1375 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1184 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
168 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
289 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.4
Supercell composite
10.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

390 
WWUS20 KWNS 250331
SEL4  
SPC WW 250331
ARZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-250900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and Northeast Arkansas
  Missouri Bootheel
  West Tennessee

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1035 PM
  until 400 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across Arkansas will progress
eastward through the watch area.  Storms may intensify, with a risk
of damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and hail.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles southwest of Little Rock AR to
45 miles northeast of Walnut Ridge AR. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 532...WW 533...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 24, 9:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Franklin and 23 more87 min
Oct 25, 4:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyd, Carter, Greenup, Lawrence119 min
Oct 24, 8:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Iron, Madison, Perry and 4 more118 min
Oct 24, 10:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Iron, Madison and 9 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2021Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2021Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.