Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1626

August 28, 202117 counties in Minnesota; 14 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 28, 2021, 5:42 AM CDT for 17 counties in Minnesota; 14 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 28, 2021, 5:42 AM CDT (10:42 UTC)
Expired
Aug 28, 2021, 7:45 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 466
All 31 counties

Benton County, MN, Big Stone County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Grant County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Pope County, MN, Renville County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Brown County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Grant County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Potter County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Spink County, SD, Walworth County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-08-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 650 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-08-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 74 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
650 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-128 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1212 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
74 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
186 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
4.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

420 
ACUS11 KWNS 281042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281042 
MNZ000-SDZ000-281245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1626
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota and western/central
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466...

Valid 281042Z - 281245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across
northeast South Dakota over the next couple of hours. Strong to
severe storms will likely approach the Minnesota state line
necessitating the issuance of a new weather watch.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Aberdeen shows a
well-developed supercell just to the southeast of Aberdeen. The
storm is located on the western end of an east-to-west corridor of
moderate instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg
along this corridor with effective shear near 50 kt.  This combined
with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km will continue to be
favorable for supercells with large hail. In spite of a low-level
temperature inversion, a few strong to severe wind gusts will also
be possible.

Further to the west, a short line segment with embedded rotating
storms is located near Mobridge. The storms will move eastward along
a gradient of moderate instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE
near 1500 J/kg. This combined with strong effective shear will be
favorable for continued hail threat. A potential for isolated strong
gusts will also be possible.

The storms and the associated severe threat will likely continue
beyond the current watch expiration time. A new weather will likely
be needed beyond 13Z.

..Broyles.. 08/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44989389 45419387 45769402 45969446 46049500 45989565
            45889662 45839863 45839961 45580019 45240024 44960006
            44769943 44829772 44729672 44499576 44449520 44579433
            44989389

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 27, 9:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFillmore, Houston93 min
Aug 28, 2:17 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Stevens, Swift, Traverse2 hr
Aug 28, 2:32 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBig Stone, Traverse5 hr
Aug 28, 7:08 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBig Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant, Kandiyohi, Lac qui Parle and 13 more5 hr
Aug 28, 9:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnoka, Benton, Chisago, Douglas, Grant, Isanti and 12 more2 hr
Aug 28, 10:34 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAitkin, Anoka, Benton, Carlton, Carver, Chisago and 14 more4 hr
Aug 28, 1:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnoka, Chisago, Isanti, Kanabec, Pine2 hr
Aug 28, 2:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMurray, Nobles, Pipestone, Rock3 hr
Aug 28, 3:44 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCottonwood, Jackson, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Nobles and 2 more5 hr
Aug 28, 3:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCottonwood, Jackson, Murray, Nobles, Rock7 hr
Aug 28, 5:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlue Earth, Brown, Carver, Cottonwood, Dakota, Dodge and 22 more63 min
Aug 28, 5:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBlue Earth, Brown, Carver, Faribault, Freeborn, Le Sueur and 11 more6 hr
Aug 28, 6:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlue Earth, Brown, Cottonwood, Nicollet, Watonwan66 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.