Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1175

July 7, 202125 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 7, 2021, 5:42 AM EDT for 25 counties in Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 7, 2021, 5:42 AM EDT (09:42 UTC)
Expired
Jul 7, 2021, 7:45 AM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 340
All 25 counties

Alachua County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, Citrus County, FL, Columbia County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Lake County, FL, Lee County, FL, Levy County, FL, Marion County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Union County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 58 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-07-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 46 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-07-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 60 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
46 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-60 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1020 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
3 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
266 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

485 
ACUS11 KWNS 070942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070942 
FLZ000-071145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 AM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

Areas affected...northern...western...and central portions of the
Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Tornado Watch 340...

Valid 070942Z - 071145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 340 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for brief tornadoes continues.

DISCUSSION...Little change with respect to tornado risk is evident
across Florida at this time, as the center of Elsa (now roughly 70
miles south-southwest of Cross City) continues drifting slowly
northward.

Brief/rather weak, transient circulations continue to be observed in
WSR-88D storm-relative velocity data, largely within the primary
convective band arcing from near Fort Myers, to north-northeast to
the Orlando area, and then north-northwest through Gainesville.

Over the past 1-2 hours, a few transient circulations have been
observed from the Ocala to the Gainesville vicinity, near and just
outside of the northern fringe of WW 340.  With time, as the center
of Elsa continues shifting northward, areas north and northwest of
the current watch will be monitored for any possible increase in
tornado potential.

..Goss.. 07/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   27318133 25988174 25588234 26168262 27268208 27768264
            27998302 28588310 28938371 29588394 30268378 30468323
            30258236 29628155 27318133

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 6, 10:37 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAlachua, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Gilchrist and 22 more9 hr
Jul 6, 11:59 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCharlotte, DeSoto, Hardee, Hillsborough2 hr
Jul 7, 3:03 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCharlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough and 5 more117 min
Jul 7, 6:46 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCBaker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Hamilton and 4 more6 hr
Jul 7, 7:06 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCharlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands and 10 more54 min
Jul 7, 10:30 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Hamilton and 3 more2 hr
Jul 7, 12:28 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Nassau and 1 more2 hr
Jul 7, 1:04 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBaker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Hamilton and 3 more7 hr
Jul 7, 4:47 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Nassau, Saint Johns and 1 more118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.