Mesoscale Discussion 1172

Issued

Jul 6, 2021, 11:59 PM EDT (03:59 UTC)

Expired

Jul 7, 2021, 2:00 AM EDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Tornado watch 340

Counties Charlotte County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

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324 
ACUS11 KWNS 070359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070359 
FLZ000-070600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021

Areas affected...Parts of the west central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Tornado Watch 340...

Valid 070359Z - 070600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 340 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for storms capable of producing tornadoes could
still increase through about 1-3 AM EDT, primarily inland of coastal
areas, near and southeast through north of the Greater Tampa area.

DISCUSSION...After enlarging with short-lived earlier
intensification of Elsa, low-level hodographs have shrunk some in
the Tampa VWP.  However, they remain sizable, with clockwise
curvature and appear favorable to strengthening low-level
mesocyclone development in the more vigorous convection.  Still,
though, rain-cooled, relatively stable boundary layer air remains a
mitigating factor around and south-southeast of the Greater Tampa
area.

Boundary-layer temperatures and dew points have risen several
degrees from late afternoon minima across the interior peninsula,
and it is possible that recovery northwestward toward the west
central coastal areas, and the offshore low-level circulation center
will continue during the next few hours.  While it appears that this
may coincide with weakening of the jet core around 850 mb, as it
propagates up coastal areas across and north of Tampa, there may be
a window of opportunity for strengthening low-level mesocyclones
capable of producing tornadoes through 1-3 AM EDT.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

LAT...LON   27138212 27988276 28358229 27448147 26818162 26848199
            27138212

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.