Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1174

July 7, 202111 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 7, 2021, 3:03 AM EDT for 11 counties in Florida. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 7, 2021, 3:03 AM EDT (07:03 UTC)
Expired
Jul 7, 2021, 5:00 AM EDT
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 340

Counties Charlotte County, FL, Citrus County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Lee County, FL, Levy County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Polk County, FL, Sumter County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 21 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-07-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 46 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-07-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 60 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
46 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-60 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1020 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
3 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
266 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

326 
ACUS11 KWNS 070704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070703 
FLZ000-070900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1174
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

Areas affected...western and central Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 340...

Valid 070703Z - 070900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 340 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for brief tornadoes continues across portions of
western and central Florida.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite loops show the center of
Tropical Storm Elsa west of Tampa, moving slowly northward -- in
line with the latest NHC track forecast.

East of the center, several spiral bands are noted in radar, with
the most pronounced band onshore, extending in an arc from roughly
Fort Myers to Cross City.  Within this band, several
occasional/somewhat transient circulations have been observed, some
cyclically weakening and then increasing again.  While not
particularly strong, any of these circulations -- aided by 35 kt
0-1km shear per the latest TBW WSR-88D VWP -- may be associated with
brief tornadic spin-ups.

..Goss.. 07/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   26308255 26928221 27308222 27628234 28028282 29228325
            29378283 29088200 28438145 27258140 26628154 26178195
            26308255

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 6, 10:37 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAlachua, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Gilchrist and 22 more9 hr
Jul 6, 11:59 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCharlotte, DeSoto, Hardee, Hillsborough2 hr
Jul 7, 5:42 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlachua, Bradford, Charlotte, Citrus, Columbia, DeSoto and 19 more2 hr
Jul 7, 6:46 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCBaker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Hamilton and 4 more6 hr
Jul 7, 7:06 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCharlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands and 10 more54 min
Jul 7, 10:30 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Hamilton and 3 more2 hr
Jul 7, 12:28 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Nassau and 1 more2 hr
Jul 7, 1:04 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBaker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Hamilton and 3 more7 hr
Jul 7, 4:47 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Nassau, Saint Johns and 1 more118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.