Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
633 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

The focus for the remainder of the overnight has shifted to a flash
flood concern as bulk of the current convection related to last
evening's MCS was exiting southeast but more cells were going up
over central Illinois along a northwest to southeast outflow
boundary that extended into southeastern Indiana. Even more ominous
was convection over south central Iowa into west central Illinois.
This area is well underway into becoming an MCS that will track
southeast along the outflow boundary and within the fast northwest
flow aloft and end up moving across central Indiana after 09z per
the convective allowing models. This will lead to even more serious,
potential life threatening flash flooding as convection trains
southeast across south central parts of the forecast area that are
already dealing with flash flooding. Areas of Clay, Owen, Monroe and
Morgan have already seen over 4 inches since last evening per MRMS.
May need to extend the Flash Flood Watch over these areas and pull
some of the northeast counties that have seen little rain and are
not expected today later today.

The bulk of the Iowa MCS should be southeast of the area after 15z.
Confidence is not great on chances of convection the rest of day
with mesoscale boundaries continuing to play a key role on where
storms fire up given lack of obvious forcing mechanisms. That said,
models continue to show strong instability with afternoon CAPEs over
2000 J/kg and 30 plus knot 850 millibar westerly low resulting in
decent low level shear for this time of year. The main front will
remain quasi-stationary over far northern Indiana. This setup
supports at least scattered thunderstorms through this evening with
perhaps a break overnight into Sunday morning.

On Sunday afternoon, more of the same but with upper flow switching
to the west and southwest as a trough digs in over the Plains.
Perturbation ahead of the trough may help things fire up as well.
SPC Day1 and Day2 Outlooks both feature a Marginal Severe Risk over
all of central Indiana, which looks reasonable given the very moist
and unstable atmosphere and sufficient shear. Any storm that dumps
rain over areas that saw a lot earlier tonight, could pose a flood
threat, but expected coverage precludes further headlines at this
time.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Models suggest a cold front will dive southeast across central
Indiana Monday. This front will interact with the stagnant moist and
unstable atmosphere and bring more widespread convection to the area
Monday. Early day timing would discourage severe weather chances.
The convection will be ending from northwest to southeast, and a
much cooler and drier air mass will settle in in the wake of the
front on Tuesday with afternoon highs only in the 70s and dew points
only in the 40s. However, temperatures will be on their way up as
will chances of convection late week as the cool surface high moves
east of the area allowing for a return to southerly and
southwesterly inflow.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 633 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

IMPACTS:

- Widespread convection will continue to effect the terminals through 16z.
- Convection will become more scattered after 16z with chances too low
  to include VCTS.
- Winds mostly 190-230 degrees to 10 knots or so and gusts around 20 knots
  16-24z. Gusts higher at times in convection and direction will vary
  at times due to convective outflow.

DISCUSSION: Convective system ongoing across central Indiana will exit
southeast mid morning. Tempo MVFR and worse flying conditions
in the heavier convection. More storms are possible this afternoon and
tonight, but coverage is expected to only be isolated to scattered.

Plenty of uncertainty remains in the specific timing for the sites
themselves.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ035>037-
043>048-051>057-062>065-071-072.

&&

Short Term...MK
Long Term...MK
Aviation...MK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
334 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

INZ035>037-043>048-051>057-062>065-071-072-201000-
Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-
Hancock-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Monroe-Brown-
Bartholomew-Decatur-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Attica, Covington, Veedersburg,
Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Clinton, Newport, Rockville,
Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis,
Greenfield, Terre Haute, Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville,
Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
334 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms today. A few storms
could be strong or severe this morning and a few more could be strong
or severe this afternoon and early evening. The main severe threats
will be damaging winds. Isolated tornadoes and large hail will also
be possible. Frequent lightning is expected. Heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will also be possible, especially this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

More thunderstorms are possible at times from Sunday through Monday
and again by late next week. There is a Marginal Risk for severe
weather Sunday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail and
isolated tornadoes are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be possible at times this weekend. Spotters
are encouraged to report any flooding issues.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ021-028>031-038>042-049-060-061-067>070-201000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-
Delaware-Randolph-Henry-Sullivan-Greene-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, New Castle,
Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee,
Shoals, Bedford, and Mitchell
334 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms today. A few storms
could be strong or severe this morning and a few more could be strong
or severe this afternoon and early evening. The main severe threats
will be damaging winds. Isolated tornadoes and large hail will also
be possible. Frequent lightning is expected. Heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will also be possible, especially this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

More thunderstorms are possible at times from Sunday through Monday
and again by late next week. There is a Marginal Risk for severe
weather Sunday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail and
isolated tornadoes are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be possible at times this weekend. Spotters
are encouraged to report any flooding issues.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
344 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             NEW PALESTINE           39.72N 85.89W
06/18/2021  M3.40 INCH       HANCOCK            IN   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. PHOTOGRAPHED NEXT
            TO TAPE MEASURE.

&&

AGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             LAWRENCE                39.87N 85.99W
06/18/2021  M1.75 INCH       MARION             IN   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. SOCIAL MEDIA POST
            FROM LAWRENCE. PHOTO WITH TWO 1.75 INCH
            STONES NEXT TO A QUARTER. SEVERAL OTHER
            STONES 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES.

&&

AGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
508 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      INDIANA UNIVERSITY      39.17N 86.53W
06/18/2021                   MONROE             IN   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED. VIDEO OF 2-3 FEET STANDING
            WATER ON WALNUT STREET BETWEEN 7TH AND 8TH
            STREETS.

&&

AGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
515 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ESE FREEDOM           39.18N 86.80W
06/19/2021                   OWEN               IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            VEHICLE UNDER WATER RESULTING IN WATER
            RESCUE.

&&

AGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
523 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW ELLETTSVILLE       39.18N 86.69W
06/19/2021                   OWEN               IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            STATE ROAD 43 FLOODED. TWO OCCUPANTS ON ROOF
            OF VEHICLE, RESCUED BY NEIGHBOR WITH HIS
            BOAT.

&&

AGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
645 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

INZ061>064-067>072-191130-
Daviess-Knox-Brown-Martin-Lawrence-Bartholomew-Greene-Jackson-Monroe-
Jennings-
645 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MONROE...
SOUTHERN BROWN...SOUTHERN BARTHOLOMEW...CENTRAL KNOX...MARTIN...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE...LAWRENCE...JACKSON...JENNINGS AND DAVIESS
COUNTIES...

At 644 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Nashville to St. Francisville.
Movement was southeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Vincennes, Seymour, Bedford, Washington, North Vernon,
Brownstown, Nashville, Shoals, Vernon, Mitchell, Bicknell, Loogootee,
Crothersville, Odon, Oolitic, Medora, Monroe City, Elizabethtown and
Wheatland.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 37 and 67.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3855 8721 3851 8730 3854 8743 3850 8750
      3855 8766 3865 8760 3924 8614 3903 8544
      3891 8545 3891 8554 3882 8563 3881 8579
      3873 8587 3876 8591 3878 8620 3876 8628
      3869 8631 3869 8668 3853 8668 3849 8695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1044Z 294DEG 43KT 3920 8618 3862 8763

Ryan