Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture will wrap around Atlantic high pressure and into
our area through Friday, bringing daily shower and thunderstorm
chances. A cold front will stall over the area this weekend, and the
remnants of Tropical Storm Fred may arrive early next week, possibly
resulting in periods of heavy rainfall Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Wednesday: We've already seen some robust cells
fire up over the higher terrain and foothills over the past few
hours, with coverage expected to increase thru the late afternoon
and into the evening with similar (or slightly greater) overall
coverage compared to yesterday. Otherwise, expect little change
in the overall environment today, with the sub-tropical ridge
firmly over the Southeast and an associated Bermuda High sfc
pattern. So expect another hot and muggy day, with scattered
to numerous aftn showers and thunderstorms. A few storms will
likely pulse up to severe levels, with the main threat being
damaging wind gusts. There will also continue to be a non-zero
flash flood threat, given the high PWATs and slow storm motions
expected. Tonight, convection should wane during the early evening
hours, leaving plenty of mid and high clouds that gradually thin
out overnight. Mountain valley fog will likely develop, with some
of it possibly being dense. Lows will be slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wed: Mid level ridging will remain in place across the
region Thursday night through Saturday. This will keep temperatures
slightly above normal with highs in the lower to middle 90s in the
Piedmont and mid to upper 80s in the mountain valleys. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours both Friday and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wed: A seasonably weak cold front will approach the
area from the north on Sunday. This will lead to an increased focus
for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday so pops will be fairly high
especially in the mountains. Based on the latest NHC track for Fred,
expect increased deep moisture to overspread the area on Monday and
Tuesday which may lead to some heavy rainfall especially in the
favored upslope areas. If the forecast for Fred changes, that would
lower the chance for heavy rainfall.

With the increased cloud cover and rainfall from Sunday into early
next week, expect highs to be in the 80s except for the higher
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Outside of the typical, diurnally-driven
summertime convection, I expect VFR conditions to prevail at most
sites thru the taf period. We've already seen some fairly robust
cells fire up over the higher terrain over the past couple of hours,
and I expect the coverage to increase thru the afternoon and into
the evening with similar (or slightly greater) overall coverage
compared to yesterday. Winds should remain generally light out of
the SW thru the period, except in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
Another round of mountain valley fog and patchy fog elsewhere is
expected again overnight and tomorrow morning, as winds remain light
and skies gradually clear out.

Outlook: Diurnal convection remains in the fcst for the rest of the
week. Fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially
over mountain valleys and areas primed by rainfall from the previous
evening.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  95%     Low   51%     Med   77%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     High  95%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High  95%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
411 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-122015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
411 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon into this
evening across portions of the forecast area. Some of these storms
could become strong to severe. Main impacts are cloud-to-ground
lightning, brief damaging wind gusts, and heavy downpours which may
lead to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
610 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

NCZ070-112245-
Gaston NC-
610 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Gaston
County through 645 PM EDT...

At 610 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Gastonia, or near Stanley. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mt Holly, Stanley, Ranlo and Lowell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8112 3535 8115 3539 8105 3530 8100
      3529 8103
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 249DEG 1KT 3533 8109

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ABBEVILLE               34.18N 82.38W
08/11/2021                   ABBEVILLE          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TREE DOWN ON VIENNA ST.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
616 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

NCZ057-072-112245-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
616 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Cabarrus and
southeastern Rowan Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 616 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles east of Salisbury to 4 miles southeast
of Downtown Concord to 10 miles northeast of Uptown Charlotte.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Downtown Concord, Salisbury, Harrisburg, Spencer, Granite Quarry,
Rockwell, Mt Pleasant, Faith, Charlotte Motor Speedway and High Rock
Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3520 8050 3527 8067 3535 8070
      3542 8061 3573 8044 3572 8038 3572 8034
      3571 8032 3568 8033 3567 8031 3563 8029
      3562 8025 3558 8021 3555 8021 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 304DEG 21KT 3568 8038 3537 8054 3530 8068

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW PACOLET           34.91N 81.81W
08/11/2021                   SPARTANBURG        SC   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED TREE DOWN ON S PINE ST.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W FINGERVILLE         35.14N 82.06W
08/11/2021                   SPARTANBURG        SC   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED TREE DOWN ON N PACOLET RD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
647 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

NCZ057-072-112315-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
647 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Cabarrus and
southeastern Rowan Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 646 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles east of Salisbury to 11 miles east of
Kannapolis to 6 miles south of Downtown Concord. Movement was east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Downtown Concord, Rockwell, Mt Pleasant, Charlotte Motor Speedway,
High Rock Lake, West Concord, Harrisburg, Gold Hill and High Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3524 8047 3536 8071 3548 8049
      3567 8032 3567 8031 3563 8029 3562 8025
      3558 8021 3555 8021 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 282DEG 23KT 3561 8028 3544 8042 3532 8064

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KRENTZ