Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture will wrap around Atlantic high pressure and into
our area through Friday, bringing daily shower and thunderstorm
chances. A cold front will stall over the area this weekend, and the
remnants of Tropical Storm Fred may arrive early next week, possibly
resulting in periods of heavy rainfall Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Wednesday: We've already seen some robust cells
fire up over the higher terrain and foothills over the past few
hours, with coverage expected to increase thru the late afternoon
and into the evening with similar (or slightly greater) overall
coverage compared to yesterday. Otherwise, expect little change
in the overall environment today, with the sub-tropical ridge
firmly over the Southeast and an associated Bermuda High sfc
pattern. So expect another hot and muggy day, with scattered
to numerous aftn showers and thunderstorms. A few storms will
likely pulse up to severe levels, with the main threat being
damaging wind gusts. There will also continue to be a non-zero
flash flood threat, given the high PWATs and slow storm motions
expected. Tonight, convection should wane during the early evening
hours, leaving plenty of mid and high clouds that gradually thin
out overnight. Mountain valley fog will likely develop, with some
of it possibly being dense. Lows will be slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wed: Mid level ridging will remain in place across the
region Thursday night through Saturday. This will keep temperatures
slightly above normal with highs in the lower to middle 90s in the
Piedmont and mid to upper 80s in the mountain valleys. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours both Friday and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wed: A seasonably weak cold front will approach the
area from the north on Sunday. This will lead to an increased focus
for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday so pops will be fairly high
especially in the mountains. Based on the latest NHC track for Fred,
expect increased deep moisture to overspread the area on Monday and
Tuesday which may lead to some heavy rainfall especially in the
favored upslope areas. If the forecast for Fred changes, that would
lower the chance for heavy rainfall.

With the increased cloud cover and rainfall from Sunday into early
next week, expect highs to be in the 80s except for the higher
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Outside of the typical, diurnally-driven
summertime convection, I expect VFR conditions to prevail at most
sites thru the taf period. We've already seen some fairly robust
cells fire up over the higher terrain over the past couple of hours,
and I expect the coverage to increase thru the afternoon and into
the evening with similar (or slightly greater) overall coverage
compared to yesterday. Winds should remain generally light out of
the SW thru the period, except in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
Another round of mountain valley fog and patchy fog elsewhere is
expected again overnight and tomorrow morning, as winds remain light
and skies gradually clear out.

Outlook: Diurnal convection remains in the fcst for the rest of the
week. Fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially
over mountain valleys and areas primed by rainfall from the previous
evening.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  95%     Low   51%     Med   77%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     High  95%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High  95%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
411 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-120400-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
411 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area today, with the
greatest coverage during the afternoon. Any of these storms will be
capable of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning as well as heavy
downpours, which may cause localized flash flooding. A few storms
will produce brief damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Wimberley

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
232 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001-111900-
Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
232 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS...
CENTRAL HABERSHAM...CENTRAL RABUN AND CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL
300 PM EDT...

At 232 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of thunderstorms
along a line extending from 9 miles north of Walhalla to near
Clarkesville, and moving east at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clarkesville, Toccoa, Tallulah Falls, Salem, Lake Rabun, Devils Fork
State Park, Lakemont, Tallulah Gorge State Park, Oconee State Park
and Lake Jocassee.

Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8365 3470 8364 3497 8322 3497 8292
      3490 8290 3489 8291 3454 8345 3466 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 266DEG 6KT 3491 8309 3465 8350

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

NCZ502-504-111915-
Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
251 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Caldwell and central Burke Counties through 315 PM EDT...

At 251 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Morganton, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morganton, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Valdese, Hudson, Icard,
Cajah's Mountain, Drexel and Hildebran.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 8141 3563 8148 3565 8173 3583 8175
      3590 8144
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 264DEG 11KT 3575 8166

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
324 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

NCZ505-507-508-112000-
McDowell Mountains NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
324 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
McDowell and northwestern Rutherford Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 324 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Marion, or 5 miles northeast of Lake Lure. This
storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Lure, Chimney Rock Village, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave,
Shingle Hollow and Green Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 8206 3554 8208 3554 8202 3536 8201
      3537 8211 3540 8213 3541 8216 3540 8227
      3545 8228 3547 8226 3546 8225 3550 8222
      3552 8223 3553 8217 3554 8220 3556 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 008DEG 3KT 3551 8215

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

SCZ006-112000-
Greater Greenville SC-
328 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Greenville County through 400 PM EDT...

At 327 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Greenville Downtown, or near Greenville Eastside,
moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Greenville Eastside, West Greenville, Mauldin,
Simpsonville, Five Forks, Donaldson Center, GSP Airport, Fountain Inn
and Welcome.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 8245 3491 8224 3489 8222 3488 8223
      3485 8223 3483 8219 3480 8217 3480 8216
      3479 8216 3478 8215 3471 8218 3464 8241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 340DEG 5KT 3482 8232

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDP