Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture will wrap around Atlantic high pressure and into
our area through Friday, bringing daily shower and thunderstorm
chances. A cold front will stall over the area this weekend, and the
remnants of Tropical Storm Fred may arrive early next week, possibly
resulting in periods of heavy rainfall Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Wednesday: We've already seen some robust cells
fire up over the higher terrain and foothills over the past few
hours, with coverage expected to increase thru the late afternoon
and into the evening with similar (or slightly greater) overall
coverage compared to yesterday. Otherwise, expect little change
in the overall environment today, with the sub-tropical ridge
firmly over the Southeast and an associated Bermuda High sfc
pattern. So expect another hot and muggy day, with scattered
to numerous aftn showers and thunderstorms. A few storms will
likely pulse up to severe levels, with the main threat being
damaging wind gusts. There will also continue to be a non-zero
flash flood threat, given the high PWATs and slow storm motions
expected. Tonight, convection should wane during the early evening
hours, leaving plenty of mid and high clouds that gradually thin
out overnight. Mountain valley fog will likely develop, with some
of it possibly being dense. Lows will be slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wed: Mid level ridging will remain in place across the
region Thursday night through Saturday. This will keep temperatures
slightly above normal with highs in the lower to middle 90s in the
Piedmont and mid to upper 80s in the mountain valleys. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours both Friday and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wed: A seasonably weak cold front will approach the
area from the north on Sunday. This will lead to an increased focus
for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday so pops will be fairly high
especially in the mountains. Based on the latest NHC track for Fred,
expect increased deep moisture to overspread the area on Monday and
Tuesday which may lead to some heavy rainfall especially in the
favored upslope areas. If the forecast for Fred changes, that would
lower the chance for heavy rainfall.

With the increased cloud cover and rainfall from Sunday into early
next week, expect highs to be in the 80s except for the higher
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Outside of the typical, diurnally-driven
summertime convection, I expect VFR conditions to prevail at most
sites thru the taf period. We've already seen some fairly robust
cells fire up over the higher terrain over the past couple of hours,
and I expect the coverage to increase thru the afternoon and into
the evening with similar (or slightly greater) overall coverage
compared to yesterday. Winds should remain generally light out of
the SW thru the period, except in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
Another round of mountain valley fog and patchy fog elsewhere is
expected again overnight and tomorrow morning, as winds remain light
and skies gradually clear out.

Outlook: Diurnal convection remains in the fcst for the rest of the
week. Fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially
over mountain valleys and areas primed by rainfall from the previous
evening.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  95%     Low   51%     Med   77%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     High  95%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High  95%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
411 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-122015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
411 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon into this
evening across portions of the forecast area. Some of these storms
could become strong to severe. Main impacts are cloud-to-ground
lightning, brief damaging wind gusts, and heavy downpours which may
lead to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
359 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     HAIL             CARNESVILLE             34.37N 83.23W
08/11/2021  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           GA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTED QUARTER (1.00") SIZE HAIL IN
            CARNESVILLE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
424 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

NCZ068-506-508-112100-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
424 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Rutherford and northwestern Cleveland Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 423 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Forest City, or 9 miles southwest of South Mountains
State Park, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Casar and Sunshine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 8172 3548 8159 3540 8181 3555 8194
      3558 8183 3558 8180 3559 8180 3559 8177
      3560 8177 3561 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 232DEG 11KT 3553 8181

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

WJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORGANTON               35.74N 81.70W
08/11/2021                   BURKE              NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES ON HILLSIDE LN
            CAUSING POWER OUTAGE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
427 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

SCZ007-112100-
Spartanburg SC-
427 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Spartanburg
County through 500 PM EDT...

At 426 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles north of Spartanburg to 14 miles
northeast of Greenville Downtown. These storms were nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Spartanburg, Boiling Springs SC, Duncan, Lyman, Wellford, USC
Upstate, Reidville and Greer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8183 3484 8220 3499 8218 3511 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 047DEG 1KT 3501 8194 3493 8215

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
428 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ029-112100-
Elbert GA-
428 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Elbert County through
500 PM EDT...

At 428 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles east of Elberton to 11 miles east of
Danielsville. These storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elberton, Bowman, Middleton, Russell State Park, Lake Russell, Dewy
Rose, Sweet City and Ruckersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3402 8294 3403 8294 3404 8298 3408 8300
      3410 8304 3411 8303 3412 8305 3420 8310
      3423 8307 3423 8299 3422 8300 3421 8298
      3425 8291 3426 8284 3409 8268 3401 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 151DEG 2KT 3409 8279 3418 8302

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
431 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

NCZ035-036-056-112100-
Iredell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
431 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Catawba,
southeastern Alexander and west central Iredell Counties through 500
PM EDT...

At 430 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Newton, or near Catawba, moving northeast at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Statesville, Troutman, Stony Point, Claremont, Catawba, Lookout
Shoals Lake, Lake Norman State Park, Bandys, Scotts and Oxford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 8108 3576 8122 3592 8104 3571 8084
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 232DEG 5KT 3573 8108

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

WJM