Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture will wrap around Atlantic high pressure and into
our area through Friday, bringing daily shower and thunderstorm
chances. A cold front will stall over the area this weekend, and the
remnants of Tropical Storm Fred may arrive early next week, possibly
resulting in periods of heavy rainfall Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Wednesday: We've already seen some robust cells
fire up over the higher terrain and foothills over the past few
hours, with coverage expected to increase thru the late afternoon
and into the evening with similar (or slightly greater) overall
coverage compared to yesterday. Otherwise, expect little change
in the overall environment today, with the sub-tropical ridge
firmly over the Southeast and an associated Bermuda High sfc
pattern. So expect another hot and muggy day, with scattered
to numerous aftn showers and thunderstorms. A few storms will
likely pulse up to severe levels, with the main threat being
damaging wind gusts. There will also continue to be a non-zero
flash flood threat, given the high PWATs and slow storm motions
expected. Tonight, convection should wane during the early evening
hours, leaving plenty of mid and high clouds that gradually thin
out overnight. Mountain valley fog will likely develop, with some
of it possibly being dense. Lows will be slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wed: Mid level ridging will remain in place across the
region Thursday night through Saturday. This will keep temperatures
slightly above normal with highs in the lower to middle 90s in the
Piedmont and mid to upper 80s in the mountain valleys. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours both Friday and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wed: A seasonably weak cold front will approach the
area from the north on Sunday. This will lead to an increased focus
for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday so pops will be fairly high
especially in the mountains. Based on the latest NHC track for Fred,
expect increased deep moisture to overspread the area on Monday and
Tuesday which may lead to some heavy rainfall especially in the
favored upslope areas. If the forecast for Fred changes, that would
lower the chance for heavy rainfall.

With the increased cloud cover and rainfall from Sunday into early
next week, expect highs to be in the 80s except for the higher
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Outside of the typical, diurnally-driven
summertime convection, I expect VFR conditions to prevail at most
sites thru the taf period. We've already seen some fairly robust
cells fire up over the higher terrain over the past couple of hours,
and I expect the coverage to increase thru the afternoon and into
the evening with similar (or slightly greater) overall coverage
compared to yesterday. Winds should remain generally light out of
the SW thru the period, except in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
Another round of mountain valley fog and patchy fog elsewhere is
expected again overnight and tomorrow morning, as winds remain light
and skies gradually clear out.

Outlook: Diurnal convection remains in the fcst for the rest of the
week. Fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially
over mountain valleys and areas primed by rainfall from the previous
evening.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  95%     Low   51%     Med   77%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     High  95%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High  95%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
411 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-122015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
411 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon into this
evening across portions of the forecast area. Some of these storms
could become strong to severe. Main impacts are cloud-to-ground
lightning, brief damaging wind gusts, and heavy downpours which may
lead to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
542 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

SCZ007-008-013-112215-
Cherokee SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
542 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Spartanburg, southwestern Cherokee and northwestern Union Counties
through 615 PM EDT...

At 541 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Spartanburg, or near Pacolet. This storm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pacolet, Jonesville, Pacolet Mills, Croft State Park and Thicketty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 8177 3488 8189 3503 8174 3480 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 236DEG 2KT 3485 8177

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
546 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

NCZ071-112215-
Mecklenburg NC-
546 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Mecklenburg County through 615 PM EDT...

At 546 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Uptown Charlotte, or near Mint Hill. This storm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Matthews, Mint Hill, Stallings and East Charlotte.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 8064 3509 8072 3517 8078 3524 8064
      3519 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 338DEG 3KT 3516 8068

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
557 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

NCZ071-112230-
Mecklenburg NC-
557 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Mecklenburg
County through 630 PM EDT...

At 557 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Uptown Charlotte, or near The Plaza. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, East Charlotte, The Plaza, Hidden Valley, Freedom
Park, Central Charlotte and Northeast Charlotte.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3517 8084 3525 8086 3529 8075 3521 8070
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 254DEG 1KT 3524 8078

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MATTHEWS                35.12N 80.72W
08/11/2021                   MECKLENBURG        NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN ON
            PLEASANT PLAINS RD IN MATTHEWS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
609 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

SCZ008-112245-
Cherokee SC-
609 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Cherokee
County through 645 PM EDT...

At 608 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Gaffney. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gaffney, Cherokee Falls, Draytonville, Saratt and Kings Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 8159 3488 8162 3499 8173 3513 8159
      3506 8141 3505 8141 3505 8147 3503 8149
      3498 8148 3497 8149 3494 8149 3494 8148
      3487 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 308DEG 3KT 3502 8160

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
610 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

NCZ070-112245-
Gaston NC-
610 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Gaston
County through 645 PM EDT...

At 610 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Gastonia, or near Stanley. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mt Holly, Stanley, Ranlo and Lowell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8112 3535 8115 3539 8105 3530 8100
      3529 8103
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 249DEG 1KT 3533 8109

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KRENTZ