Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
725 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
As an upper level disturbance moves off the East Coast tonight,
drier high pressure builds into the area Sunday.  This will bring
the return of typical summertime weather across the region through
the start of the week. Moisture and the chances for showers and
thunderstorms return for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 600 PM: Water vapor imagery and the latest RAP 500 mb height
fields indicate that the main H5 trough axis is right over the
southern Appalachians early this evening. DPVA trigging aloft, along
with initiation on earlier outflows, will keep decent convective
coverage going east of the mountains, and primarily over western NC,
through mid evening before dissipating quickly with the loss of
daytime heating. The HREF solution suggests that updraft strength
should already be waning and radar trends support this. Still,
cannot rule out some low end strong to severe wind gusts with the
remaining tall cells, and some isolated excessive rainfall with any
training or redeveloping heavy showers. This remains addressed in
the HWO for now, but can probably be pulled mid to late evening.

Otherwise, the upper trough will pass later this evening, and skies
should gradually clear. Winds turning light/variable as high
pressure settles over the mtns will set up a good potential for fog
development in the pre-dawn hours, particularly where rain fell this
afternoon. Low temps will be about a category below normal. Sunday
should be a fairly quiet day with weak high pressure hanging around,
and isolated to scattered at best mountain showers/thunderstorms
triggering during the afternoon. High temps will be right around
normal for early August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...Upper ridging dominates across the FA
thru the short term as an h5 trof approaches yet attenuates across
ern TN by Tue. With a classic Atl sfc ridge config, winds will align
generally sw/ly thru the period and maintain high td/s and allow
for weak temp adv within the BL. This will generate low-end sbCAPE
values arnd 1000 J/kg breaking a mlvl cap each afternoon wihin very
weak column flow. Thus, expect diurnally driven pulse and outflow
driven storms each afternoon, a few a which may briefly become quite
strong. Max and min temps will remain arnd normal each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...The ext range continues to show good
confidence in the overall pattern. Expect subTrop ridging to
dominate with any sigfnt upper waves remaining well north of the FA.
This will continue normal summertime wx over the region with similar
fcsts for each day. Little column flow along with skinny sbCAPE
depicted by the models, will lead to non/organized thunderstorms
each afternoon with increasing PWATS as a weak sfc front settles in
from the NW. With slow moving or perhaps anchored storms, there may
be some localized hydro issues, mainly confined to the mtns where
the better chance of deep convec is likely. Surface td/s will remain
high and along with temps at or a little abv normal, expect muggy
conds each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere...Thunderstorm coverage continues to diminish
quickly across the terminal forecast area. Modest activity along I-
77 for the next hour or two could send an outflow to or near KCLT,
but instability continues to wane. With the convection allowing
models now very quiet at KCLT going forward, have pulled any TSRA
mention from the TAF sites for the rest of the night. This will
permit us to turn attention primarily to the early morning fog or
low cloud threat as some measure of scattering clouds occurs from
the west with the passing trough axis. Given the rainfall at KAVL
and KHKY, these locations seem like prime candidates for IFR to LIFR
visibility in fog and low stratus. Will also feature some MVFR fog
at KCLT and the Upstate sites even though it's a bit more uncertain
there - at least the MOS is fairly confident of fog before daybreak
at these locations. Expect light winds to turn around the dial under
surface high pressure, with mainly S to SW flow at less than 10 kt
developing late through Sunday with mixing. Cumulus should be
patchier on Sunday, and any showers or thunderstorms too isolated to
mention in the TAFs.

Outlook: Diurnal shower/thunderstorm activity will return for most
of the upcoming week. Fog and low stratus will be possible each
morning, particularly over the mtn valleys and areas primed by any
rainfall from the previous evening.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Low   51%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
336 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-081945-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
336 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia late this afternoon through
early this evening. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding will
be the primary threat. However, these thunderstorms will also be
capable of producing dangerous lightning, small hail, and very gusty
to damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
546 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

NCZ052-059-063-064-072230-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Southern Jackson NC-Northern Jackson NC-
546 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central
Transylvania, northeastern Jackson and southwestern Haywood Counties
through 630 PM EDT...

At 546 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Waynesville, or near Balsam, moving south at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesville, Balsam, B.R. Parkway-Black Balsam To Mount Pisgah,
Graveyard Fields, B.R. Parkway-Balsam Gap To Black Balsam Area, Black
Balsam Area, Lake Junaluska, B.R. Parkway-Smoky Mountains To Balsam
Gap, Tuckasegee and Sunburst.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 8314 3552 8297 3527 8280 3521 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 344DEG 15KT 3543 8303

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
548 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

SCZ006-007-012-072230-
Laurens SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
548 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Laurens, east central Greenville and southwestern Spartanburg
Counties through 630 PM EDT...

At 548 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Spartanburg, or near Moore, moving southwest at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fountain Inn, Woodruff, Roebuck, Reidville, Moore, Gray Court,
Simpsonville, Enoree, Ora and Pauline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8207 3487 8187 3456 8194 3467 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 023DEG 15KT 3482 8202

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
602 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

NCZ035-056-068-069-502-504-072245-
Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
602 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Catawba,
southwestern Alexander, northwestern Lincoln, southern Caldwell,
north central Cleveland and southeastern Burke Counties through 645
PM EDT...

At 602 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Lenoir, or near Cajah's Mountain, moving southeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hickory, Lenoir, Morganton, Newton, St. Stephens, Conover, Longview,
Sawmills, Granite Falls and Valdese.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 8111 3544 8165 3586 8175 3592 8168
      3597 8159 3599 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 334DEG 21KT 3583 8152

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
619 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

NCZ035-036-072300-
Iredell NC-Alexander NC-
619 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Alexander
and northern Iredell Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 619 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Taylorsville, or 5 miles west of Love Valley,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Statesville, Taylorsville, Stony Point, Harmony, Love Valley,
Hiddenite, Turnersburg, Olin, Vashti and Union Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 8071 3571 8091 3591 8126 3603 8115
      3604 8111 3603 8110 3603 8107 3606 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 292DEG 11KT 3597 8109

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
720 PM EDT SAT AUG 07 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW MARION             35.66N 82.03W
08/07/2021                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MCDOWELL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED SEVERAL
            TREES DOWN, INCLUDING A FEW LARGE OAK TREES, FROM VETERANS DR
            TO SPAULDING RD TO RANKIN DR NEAR MISSION HOSPITAL.

&&

JMP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
735 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

NCZ036-057-072-080015-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-Cabarrus NC-
735 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Cabarrus,
southeastern Iredell and southern Rowan Counties through 815 PM
EDT...

At 734 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Kannapolis, or near Enochville, moving southeast
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Salisbury, Mooresville, China Grove,
Landis, Enochville, Granite Quarry, Rockwell and Mt Pleasant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3529 8048 3548 8078 3551 8079 3551 8082
      3552 8085 3573 8075 3564 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 292DEG 18KT 3557 8067

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT