Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
145 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
As an upper level disturbance moves off the East Coast tonight,
drier high pressure builds into the area Sunday.  This will bring
the return of typical summertime weather across the region through
the start of the week. Moisture and the chances for showers and
thunderstorms return for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 138 PM: Deep convection has been gradually increasing in
coverage and intensity over the mtns/foothills early this afternoon,
just as expected. The environment has sfc-based CAPE on the order
of 1500-2500 J/kg, which will be sufficient to fuel scattered to
numerous storms. Shear is not much, but probably enough to afford
some weak organization later this afternoon, especially if some
outflows can consolidate off the higher terrain. The mesoanalysis
shows just enough dCAPE around 800 J/kg to keep the storms capable
of producing strong/severe outflow winds. Chances will diminish
this evening diurnally and as a shortwave axis passes east. PWATs
with the afternoon activity won't be what they were this morning,
but storm motion vectors are fairly short and we can't rule out
some additional excessive rainfall.

Otherwise...clearing skies behind the shortwave tonight will allow
temps near or slightly below normal. The mountain valleys appear
to be at risk of radiation fog and possibly a few areas of the
Piedmont, per dense fog signal depicted in NAMNest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...Upper ridging dominates across the FA
thru the short term as an h5 trof approaches yet attenuates across
ern TN by Tue. With a classic Atl sfc ridge config, winds will align
generally sw/ly thru the period and maintain high td/s and allow
for weak temp adv within the BL. This will generate low-end sbCAPE
values arnd 1000 J/kg breaking a mlvl cap each afternoon wihin very
weak column flow. Thus, expect diurnally driven pulse and outflow
driven storms each afternoon, a few a which may briefly become quite
strong. Max and min temps will remain arnd normal each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...The ext range continues to show good
confidence in the overall pattern. Expect subTrop ridging to
dominate with any sigfnt upper waves remaining well north of the FA.
This will continue normal summertime wx over the region with similar
fcsts for each day. Little column flow along with skinny sbCAPE
depicted by the models, will lead to non/organized thunderstorms
each afternoon with increasing PWATS as a weak sfc front settles in
from the NW. With slow moving or perhaps anchored storms, there may
be some localized hydro issues, mainly confined to the mtns where
the better chance of deep convec is likely. Surface td/s will remain
high and along with temps at or a little abv normal, expect muggy
conds each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere...Prevailing VFR outside of thunderstorms
through the evening hours. First concern is thunderstorm activity
associated with an upper trof. Storms already developed over the
mtns will affect KAVL first, then will move east of the Blue Ridge
during the late afternoon/early evening. Will employ a TEMPO to
handle the associated restrictions. The storms should end by 01Z at
the latest. Clearing sky this evening, combined with light winds,
will set up a fog scenario in the pre-dawn hours tonight. Visibility
will probably drop lowest in places that experience rainfall late
today. For the time being, prevailing MVFR visibility will be used
as a placeholder starting from 06Z to 08Z. We will eventually add
a TEMPO group at some locations for possible IFR/LIFR conditions
as confidence increases. The fog should burn off quickly Sunday
morning, after which only scattered low clouds are expected with
a light wind. A few showers are possible Sunday afternoon, but
the chances are too low to mention at this time.

Outlook: Diurnal shower/thunderstorm activity will return for
the first part of next week. Fog and low stratus will be possible
each morning, particularly over the mtn valleys and areas primed
by rainfall from the previous evening.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High  94%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   61%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     Low   48%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
514 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
080915-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
514 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Piedmont of North and South
Carolina, plus a portion of northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers will occur this morning near a weak
area of low pressure over the region. Ample moisture will allow
these showers to produce locally heavy rainfall. The low will move
out of the area later today. Scattered thunderstorms also will
develop, mainly in the afternoon. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be
possible with any of these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-080915-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
514 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop today, with the greatest
coverage being in the afternoon. Any of these storms will be capable
of cloud-to-ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1235 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

NCZ052-071700-
Haywood NC-
1235 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Haywood
County through 100 PM EDT...

At 1235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Waynesville, or near Smoky Mountains-Cataloochee,
moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesville, Lake Junaluska, Clyde, Maggie Valley, Smoky
Mountains-Cataloochee, B.R. Parkway-Smoky Mountains To Balsam Gap,
Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain, Smoky Mountains-Big Creek, Cove
Creek and Fines Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 8290 3568 8290 3567 8288 3564 8287
      3563 8285 3543 8290 3552 8318 3554 8317
      3555 8316 3558 8317 3559 8318 3571 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 281DEG 10KT 3561 8309

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
104 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

GAZ010-SCZ001-071730-
Rabun GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
104 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Rabun
and north central Oconee Counties through 130 PM EDT...

At 104 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Walhalla, or 6 miles southeast of Highlands, moving
east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Walhalla, Salem, Devils Fork State Park, Oconee State Park, Lake
Jocassee, Mountain Rest, Bad Creek and Pine Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8324 3500 8311 3502 8302 3503 8301
      3501 8293 3499 8294 3497 8293 3477 8305
      3486 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 267DEG 9KT 3496 8315

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
125 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

NCZ052-053-071800-
Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-
125 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Haywood
and west central Buncombe Counties through 200 PM EDT...

At 125 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles west of Downtown Asheville, or 5 miles west of Leicester,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Leicester, Enka, Candler and Canto.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8263 3557 8288 3569 8287 3570 8284
      3569 8281 3570 8279 3570 8277 3571 8275
      3573 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 273DEG 14KT 3562 8279

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
133 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

SCZ001-002-004-005-071815-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
133 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Pickens
and central Oconee Counties through 215 PM EDT...

At 132 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walhalla, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Seneca, Walhalla, Westminster, Six Mile, Salem, Lake Keowee, Oconee
State Park, Mountain Rest, Oakway and Townville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 8328 3491 8318 3490 8311 3488 8278
      3459 8288 3455 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 285DEG 11KT 3480 8309

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
155 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

NCZ048-049-053-505-071845-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Madison NC-
155 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
McDowell, east central Madison, northeastern Buncombe and southern
Yancey Counties through 245 PM EDT...

At 154 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Burnsville, or 4 miles east of Mars Hill, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Black Mountain, Mars Hill, B.R. Parkway-East Asheville To Craggy
Gardens, Mount Mitchell State Park, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To Little
Switzerland, Swannanoa, Montreat, Busick, Barnardsville and Celo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 8214 3584 8215 3582 8214 3582 8212
      3583 8211 3583 8210 3556 8232 3579 8260
      3596 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 303DEG 15KT 3583 8247

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT