Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
240 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 115 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/
/Through Tuesday/

The main concerns through the next few hours will be the
potential for heavy precipitation east of I-35 as a complex of
storms and attendant MCV move across the region. In addition to
the heavy precipitation, instability ahead of the line of storms
will continue to rise as daytime heating continues. With
increasing instability and enhanced low-level forcing for ascent,
a few strong storms can't be ruled out across the Brazos
Valley/Southeast Texas this afternoon.

There remains some uncertainty regarding the forward progression
of the line across Central Texas. Strong southerly flow around
925-850mb will supply a constant fetch of moisture into the area.
Confidence remains too low at this time to expand the Flash Flood
Watch into more portions of Central Texas. Regardless of whether
there is a watch or not, we will need to monitor the forward
progression of the line as we go into the evening hours in case we
begin to get training thunderstorms.

As this line of convection moves east of our area tonight, another
complex of thunderstorms will be approaching from West Texas.
Whether or not this line makes it through our area remains highly
uncertain at this time given the current state of the atmosphere.
If this line does make it into our region, a few strong wind gusts
and brief heavy rain will be the primary concerns.

Temperatures tomorrow afternoon are expected to be about 10
degrees warmer compared to the temperatures we will experience
today. Much of the region will be in the 90s, with heat index
values in the mid to upper 90s.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday night through next Monday/

Any lingering convection Tuesday night will shift to the
east/northeast as the upper trough moves east. Then, an upper
high pressure will begin to build over the region keeping us on
the dry side for the next several days. This also means that
temperatures will warm up to near or above normal for early-mid
June. Model trends show very warm air in the low levels spreading
northward mid to late week. However, the recent rainfall and high
humidity in our environment will likely keep the surface
temperatures from being too hot. While many locations will see
highs in the 90s Wednesday through Saturday, the expected humidity
will bump up the heat indices into the mid/upper 90s. A few spots
across the far western zones could reach the triple digit
Thursday and Friday.

In general, the dry weather is expected to continue into next
weekend but we will have to monitor the potential for nocturnal
complexes from the northwest and daytime convection across the east.
Some of the extended guidance show a weakness in the ridge that
could result in a few passing disturbances over the region. It is
too early to discuss any details, so for now we will show a low
chance of precipitation Sunday and Monday.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 115 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Ongoing lingering rain along with MVFR. Improvement to
VFR expected later this afternoon before additional MVFR arrives
tonight.

A mesoscale convective vortex is moving across North Texas at this
time in the wake of this morning's thunderstorms. Expect to see a
diminishing potential for precipitation through the early
afternoon hours. Lightning has significantly decreased in the past
hour, therefore, a mention of lightning has been removed in the
TAF. Recent satellite trends have also shown significant
improvements to the cloud cover as subsidence increases behind the
departing line of storms. For Waco, another small storm is
approaching the airport as of 18Z and should move off to the east
through the next two hours.

The rest of the afternoon should remain precipitation free
throughout with VFR gradually expanding. Another round of MVFR is
looking likely as a low-level jet once again strengthens
overnight. There will be storms that develop in West Texas tonight
and move toward our region. There remains too much uncertainty whether
the line of convection reaches the I-35 corridor. For that
reason, no mention of precipitation has been included with this
package. If probability of rain increases through the afternoon,
it's possible a mention of showers or storms will be added later
today.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  90  75  91  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
Waco                74  91  74  92  74 /  30  10   0   0   0
Paris               70  85  73  88  74 /  50  50  10   5   5
Denton              70  89  73  91  74 /  20  10   0   0   0
McKinney            72  88  74  90  75 /  30  20   5   0   0
Dallas              74  90  76  92  77 /  20  20   0   0   0
Terrell             72  88  74  90  74 /  30  20   5   0   0
Corsicana           74  89  75  91  75 /  30  20   0   0   0
Temple              73  92  73  91  72 /  30   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       72  90  73  93  73 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-131-133>135-145-146-148.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
111 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081130-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
111 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Storms will continue to affect portions of Central and East Texas.
The overall severe weather threat is low, but a few strong storms
with gusty winds will be possible. In addition, heavy rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding across Central Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A few morning showers and storms will be possible around a Sulphur
Springs to Paris line. No severe weather is expected.

Isolated thunderstorms may return to the parts of the area by next
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time. However, reports of
heavy rainfall and flooding to the National Weather Service is
appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

TXZ122-135-147-148-162-071745-
Van Zandt TX-Anderson TX-Leon TX-Freestone TX-Henderson TX-
1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FREESTONE...SOUTHEASTERN
VAN ZANDT...NORTHEASTERN LEON...HENDERSON AND ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL
1245 PM CDT...

At 1159 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fruitvale to near Brownsboro to 12 miles
southeast of Athens to 11 miles northwest of Palestine to 6 miles
northwest of Buffalo. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

 Locations impacted include...
Palestine, Athens, Canton, Teague, Fairfield, Grand Saline, Chandler,
Van, Elkhart, Frankston, Brownsboro, Berryville, Fruitvale, Edom,
Coffee City, Fairfield Lake State Park, Murchison, Oakwood, Poynor
and Moore Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to flooding of small streams and creeks. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways!

&&

LAT...LON 3155 9557 3151 9574 3146 9575 3145 9571
      3155 9633 3202 9599 3223 9591 3266 9591
      3271 9561 3248 9560 3235 9545 3223 9549
      3215 9548 3208 9542 3185 9545 3182 9540
      3176 9540 3175 9536
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 267DEG 40KT 3262 9580 3233 9568 3207 9573 3184
9582 3153 9614

Bain

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
112 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE GARLAND           32.94N 96.62W
06/07/2021                   DALLAS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CLOSED FLOODGATES ON NAAMAN SCHOOL ROAD
            BETWEEN TWO SECTIONS OF BRAND ROAD AND MILES
            ROAD, BETWEEN PLEASANT VALLEY AND CASTLE.

&&

PRATER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
114 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E RICHARDSON          32.97N 96.67W
06/07/2021                   DALLAS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CLOSED FLOODGATES ON CAMPBELL RD AT ROWLETT
            CREEK.

&&

PRATER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
226 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

TXZ159-160-072000-
Falls TX-McLennan TX-
226 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCLENNAN AND
NORTHERN FALLS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 226 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Robinson, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Waco, Hewitt, Robinson, Marlin, Mart, Lorena, Riesel, Golinda and
Hallsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3129 9722 3148 9723 3161 9686 3130 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 257DEG 28KT 3141 9714

Bonnette

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     FLOOD            LOTT                    31.21N 97.03W
06/07/2021                   FALLS              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM RELAYED THAT LOTT PD HAS PICTURES OF
            HEAVY WATER IN DITCHES AND SOME WATER ON
            HIGHWAY 320 JUST OUTSIDE OF THE LOTT CITY
            LIMITS. THERE IS ALSO ADDITIONAL STANDING
            WATER ON THE STREETS WITHIN THE LOTT CITY
            LIMITS.

&&

PRATER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
337 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

TXZ159-160-072100-
Falls TX-McLennan TX-
337 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCLENNAN AND
NORTHEASTERN FALLS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 336 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Robinson, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Waco, Robinson, Mart, Beverly Hills, Riesel, Golinda and Hallsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and will
likely lead to flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways!

&&

LAT...LON 3137 9714 3153 9715 3157 9683 3132 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 270DEG 17KT 3144 9707

Bonnette