Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
547 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Although there was uncertainty about the influence of the low-
level jet earlier this morning, an organized complex of showers
and thunderstorms is just entering our northwestern counties this
morning. High res guidance has not handled the evolution of this
system well, but based on conditions ahead of the complex, opted
to maintain similar PoPs for this morning and afternoon. The
environment across North and Central Texas is characterized by
precipitable water values upwards of 1.7 inches, shear values near
30 knots, and MUCAPE upwards of 1500 J/kg, which should be able to
sustain the complex as it moves east and southeast this morning.
The main threats along the leading edge of the complex are strong
to severe wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and lightning. The Severe
Thunderstorm Watch goes through 10 am for areas northwest of the
Metroplex as conditions for marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible. Rainfall rates of 1-3" are possible as the complex moves
through, but additional showers behind the leading edge may result
in isolated higher amounts. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
through this evening across North and East Texas to account for
this.

Behind the complex this afternoon, expected rain-free conditions
and a gradual clearing of cloud cover. Additional thunderstorms
should develop across West Texas late this afternoon and pose a
threat for our northwestern counties after midnight tonight.

Garcia

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tonight/

Radar and satellite imagery depict North and Central Texas mostly
rain-free and clear, except for our far northeastern counties
along the Red River where lingering showers and cloudy skies
associated with a departing cluster of storms exists. Off to our
west, strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing along a north to
south oriented line mainly between I-40 and I-20. This is the area
we are monitoring, as it is expected to congeal into a
thunderstorm complex as the thunderstorms move to the east.

A 30-35 knot low-level jet across the Big Country and parts of
North and Central Texas, should be sufficient to sustain the
complex at least through the next several hours. The main threats
would be heavy rainfall and gusty winds, possibly a few severe
wind gusts, as the complex moves across the region this morning.
One caveat is whether the outflow boundary surges out ahead of the
complex if the low-level jet weakens or becomes more southwesterly,
which would result in the complex weakening as it approaches our
region. However, if this scenario were to pan out, it may result
in showers and thunderstorms developing near the remnant outflow
boundary later on in the day as instability increases. Still, with
high moisture content in place, heavy rainfall can be expected
across North Texas through the morning hours with any thunderstorms
moving through the area.

We'll have to keep an eye on another complex of thunderstorms
expected to develop tonight out west once again, which may result
in additional flash flooding issues in parts of the region that
receive heavy rainfall today. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be
extended, but we'll hold off at this time and continue to monitor
trends through this morning.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 328 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021/
/Tuesday Through Next Weekend/

A lot uncertainty with regard to convective initiation late
Monday night and how that evolves to our west/northwest, as well
as our thermodynamic environment and how it pertains to storm
coverage and threats. As noted the previous morning, high-
resolution CAMs and other short-term models continue to struggle
mightily with all these parameters mentioned. For now, best
moisture flux through 850mb will be across the Ark-La-Tex region
and Ozarks region early in the day and have trimmed slight
chance/chance PoPs to account for any east/southeast movement of
earlier nocturnal convection to just our far E/NE counties. By
afternoon, I tried to account for any S/SW-moving outflow boundary
and redestabilization back toward I-35 in Central Texas. These
both differ slightly with initial NBM PoPs as I used HRRR/NAM12
trends for my forecast.

Otherwise, Tuesday will likely be the coolest day within the
extended forecast due to the clouds and lower mid level heights
aloft. As the old broad mid level low opens up and becomes
absorbed in stronger westerly flow in the mid-latitudes, it will
quickly be shunted northeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
region, while a full latitude mid level trough evolves over the
the western Canadian and U.S. Coasts. This long-awaited long wave
pattern shift will allow heights to increase across the Southern
Plains and Gulf Coast regions. The long duration dry period will
allow us to dry out with very warm and humid conditions through
late week and early next weekend. Highs will be primarily in the
upper 80s across East Texas, to the 90s elsewhere with reading
pushing the century mark Thursday/Friday across Young/Stephens
counties.

By next weekend, I have included slight chance PoPs back into the
forecast for primarily East Texas due to the late week upper
ridge retrograding west across the Desert Southwest and the
Southern Rockies. This may allow for the typical nocturnal MCSs
developing and moving south or southeast across Oklahoma and
toward our area late weekend into early the following week.

05/

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Ongoing convection across the northwestern cornerposts will
continue to move south and east this morning, likely reaching the
Metroplex terminals close to 11-12Z. Lightning, gusty winds, and
heavy rainfall will accompany this cluster of thunderstorms will
as it moves across the region. Reductions in visibility will also
occur, especially along the leading edge of the thunderstorms. MVFR/IFR
ceilings continue to surge northward from the Texas Hill Country,
aided by a 30-35 knot low level jet.

VFR should gradually return this afternoon as the convection moves
to the south and east. Behind the complex this afternoon,
generally rain- free conditions are expected. Additional showers
and thunderstorms may develop over West Texas late this
afternoon/evening and attempt to head toward the region once
again, but there remains a lot of uncertainty about timing at this
time. With low confidence at this time, we'll keep any mention of
thunder out at this time and allow subsequent TAF issuances to
narrow down the potential and timing.

Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  73  90  74  92 / 100  30  10   0   0
Waco                86  74  90  74  90 / 100  30  10   0   0
Paris               80  70  85  72  86 / 100  50  40  10  10
Denton              82  70  90  73  91 / 100  40  10   0   0
McKinney            82  72  89  74  90 / 100  40  20   0   0
Dallas              84  74  90  75  92 / 100  30  10   0   0
Terrell             83  72  89  74  89 / 100  40  20   0   5
Corsicana           84  74  89  75  90 / 100  30  20   0   5
Temple              86  74  90  74  91 /  70  20  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       83  72  91  73  93 / 100  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131-133>135-145-146-148.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
325 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-080830-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
325 AM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will move into the Big Country early this morning and
may pose a strong to damaging wind threat...mainly west of the U.S.
highway 281 corridor. The potential for flash flooding, especially
along the I-20 corridor, will exist through late this morning and
early afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Widely scattered thunderstorms remain possible east of a Sherman, to
Dallas, to Cameron line on Tuesday. Severe weather is not expected.
However, a few stronger storms with gusty winds and frequent
lightning are possible. Very localized heavy rainfall may result in
renewed instances of flooding. Flooding is not expected to be
widespread.

Isolated thunderstorms may return to the parts of the area by next
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time. However, reports of
heavy rainfall and flooding to the National Weather Service is
appreciated.

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