Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
329 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Impulse on SW extent of upper low will continue to aid convective
forcing this afternoon into evening as it pushes SEWD. While
weakly sheared, the destabilization with this feature will allow
for scattered to numerous storms with isolated strong to severe
development. Strong to damaging winds is main threat from
multicell clusters or wet microbursts given the still high PWATs.

We finally get a push of some drier air ahead of some weak NW
flow aloft for Sunday so pops/precip coverage look to be decently
lower, but still have slight to low end chance across northern
majority of area and some higher chances for parts of central GA.
Temps look to be slightly lower for Sunday afternoon, but should
still make it to the upper 80s for most locations.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Long term forecast continues to show relief from frequent diurnal
storm activity and a return to a more dry weather pattern.

Extended forecast models are in good agreement over the next week
with a large ridge of high pressure positioned over the western US
and broad trough over the Northeast. Expect this trough to dig down
the east coast late Monday, dragging a cold front through Georgia.
Models continue to show a slow progression with the front through
the state with a little assistance from another shortwave to push it
through on Wednesday. Highest rain chances Monday will generally be
south of I-20 - along and south of the front, and low-end PoPs over
far central/south Georgia Tuesday and Wednesday. Although there will
be a marked humidity change through midweek over much of the area,
by Friday another trough will usher back in the higher dew points
and precip chances.

Temperatures will be warmest Monday and Tuesday ahead of the front.
Highs will largely be in the 90s each day, with muggy lows Monday
morning around 70 and above. By Tuesday morning should start seeing
a little cooler morning low temperatures. Near normal temperatures
are expected mid week with pleasant morning lows and highs in the
80s Wednesday and Thursday. Warming temperatures return for the
weekend.

There continues to be a suggestion of a tropical low in the  Gulf by
Friday/Saturday, but with a good amount of uncertainty yet, will
have to continue watching.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly 3500-5000 ft cu deck this afternoon with isolated to
scattered showers and TSRA development. Have tempo TSRA until
21/22z though could linger later esp for southern sites. Some MVFR
cigs could build into most sites Sunday morning. Shower and TSRA
chances are lower for Sunday, though may be high enough to warrant
prob30 TS at some locations. Winds mainly NW 8-10 kts with higher
and more VRB from any TSRA or outflows. Wind shift to NE after 05z
for KATL.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on extent of MVFR cigs Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon
precip coverage.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  88  70  93 /  50  20  10  20
Atlanta         70  88  71  92 /  30  20  10  20
Blairsville     63  83  65  87 /  20  30  20  10
Cartersville    67  89  69  91 /  20  20  10  10
Columbus        70  91  71  93 /  40  30  20  30
Gainesville     68  86  70  90 /  30  30  20  20
Macon           68  89  69  94 /  60  30  10  30
Rome            68  91  70  93 /  20  10  10  10
Peachtree City  68  88  69  92 /  40  20  10  20
Vidalia         71  87  71  92 /  70  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1103 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131515-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1103 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into evening across
North and Central Georgia. A few strong to severe storms are
possible, especially across central Georgia, with strong to
damaging wind, heavy rain, and frequent lightning being the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

There will be a chance of thunderstorms across North and Central
Georgia Sunday, then mainly confined to parts of central Georgia
Monday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms will again be possible
across North and Central Georgia on Friday. The greatest chance
will be during the afternoon and evening hours. A few stronger
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on any of these days, however no
organized or widespread severe weather is expected. The primary
threat from any thunderstorms will be frequent lightning, gusty
winds and brief heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
603 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ096-097-122230-
Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-
603 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAURENS AND
NORTHEASTERN BLECKLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 602 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Montrose, or 14 miles
west of Dublin...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dublin, Dexter, Dudley, Rentz, Montrose, Harlow and Rebie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3242 8314 3245 8317 3244 8319 3252 8325
      3259 8321 3260 8319 3262 8311 3249 8289
      3238 8297 3237 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 318DEG 12KT 3255 8315

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
606 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ105-106-108-122230-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Wilcox GA-
606 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CRISP...SOUTHEASTERN
DOOLY AND NORTHWESTERN WILCOX COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 606 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Seville, or 12 miles
east of Cordele...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Pitts, Tremont, Pleasant View, Pope City, Seville and Tippettville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3207 8373 3214 8361 3212 8361 3212 8357
      3203 8343 3193 8350 3193 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 317DEG 19KT 3199 8357

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
611 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ104-106-122245-
Crisp GA-Sumter GA-
611 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CRISP AND SOUTHEASTERN
SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 610 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Lake Blackshear, or 9
miles west of Cordele...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Arabi, De Soto, Desoto, Cobb, Fort Early, Georgia Veterans Memorial
St Pk and Raines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3181 8383 3183 8384 3182 8385 3184 8386
      3185 8394 3186 8394 3186 8393 3188 8393
      3191 8392 3191 8407 3196 8407 3200 8386
      3181 8373 3180 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 326DEG 15KT 3193 8394

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
623 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ084-097-098-122245-
Wilkinson GA-Treutlen GA-Laurens GA-
623 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON...WESTERN
TREUTLEN AND LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 622 PM EDT...a clustere of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Nicklesville to near Chappells Mill to
Blackville. Another strong storm was located near Dudley on I-16.
The storms were moving south at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dublin, Soperton, East Dublin, Dexter, Dudley, Rentz, Montrose,
Lothair, Orland, Rockledge, Nicklesville, Orianna, Minter, Harlow,
Chappells Mill, Brewton and Blackville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3232 8259 3239 8288 3236 8310 3252 8319
      3278 8306 3276 8296 3275 8295 3271 8296
      3271 8291 3262 8281 3256 8267 3252 8267
      3250 8262 3250 8256 3233 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 344DEG 18KT 3272 8305 3262 8297 3247 8259

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
624 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ106-108-122300-
Crisp GA-Wilcox GA-
624 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRISP AND SOUTHERN WILCOX
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 624 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Wenona to Seville to near Antioch Church...and moving
south at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Cordele, Rochelle, Arabi, Pitts, East Crisp, Double Run, Tremont,
Wenona, Antioch Church, Owensboro, Seville and Hatley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3182 8385 3193 8386 3203 8362 3190 8326
      3185 8324 3185 8361 3180 8361 3180 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 342DEG 20KT 3189 8376 3194 8359 3186 8335

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
628 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ086-098-112-113-122300-
Toombs GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-
628 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TOOMBS...SOUTHERN
EMANUEL...SOUTHEASTERN TREUTLEN AND NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 628 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered near Oak Park, or
8 miles north of Lyons, moving southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lyons, Vidalia, Oak Park, Santa Claus, Ohoopee, Ponderosa, Zaidee,
Kibbee and Normantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3214 8220 3209 8220 3211 8231 3222 8242
      3227 8253 3241 8255 3240 8226 3238 8223
      3235 8225 3235 8224 3228 8223 3224 8221
      3223 8221 3218 8219 3216 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 315DEG 10KT 3232 8228

WIND...50MPH