Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
329 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Impulse on SW extent of upper low will continue to aid convective
forcing this afternoon into evening as it pushes SEWD. While
weakly sheared, the destabilization with this feature will allow
for scattered to numerous storms with isolated strong to severe
development. Strong to damaging winds is main threat from
multicell clusters or wet microbursts given the still high PWATs.

We finally get a push of some drier air ahead of some weak NW
flow aloft for Sunday so pops/precip coverage look to be decently
lower, but still have slight to low end chance across northern
majority of area and some higher chances for parts of central GA.
Temps look to be slightly lower for Sunday afternoon, but should
still make it to the upper 80s for most locations.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Long term forecast continues to show relief from frequent diurnal
storm activity and a return to a more dry weather pattern.

Extended forecast models are in good agreement over the next week
with a large ridge of high pressure positioned over the western US
and broad trough over the Northeast. Expect this trough to dig down
the east coast late Monday, dragging a cold front through Georgia.
Models continue to show a slow progression with the front through
the state with a little assistance from another shortwave to push it
through on Wednesday. Highest rain chances Monday will generally be
south of I-20 - along and south of the front, and low-end PoPs over
far central/south Georgia Tuesday and Wednesday. Although there will
be a marked humidity change through midweek over much of the area,
by Friday another trough will usher back in the higher dew points
and precip chances.

Temperatures will be warmest Monday and Tuesday ahead of the front.
Highs will largely be in the 90s each day, with muggy lows Monday
morning around 70 and above. By Tuesday morning should start seeing
a little cooler morning low temperatures. Near normal temperatures
are expected mid week with pleasant morning lows and highs in the
80s Wednesday and Thursday. Warming temperatures return for the
weekend.

There continues to be a suggestion of a tropical low in the  Gulf by
Friday/Saturday, but with a good amount of uncertainty yet, will
have to continue watching.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly 3500-5000 ft cu deck this afternoon with isolated to
scattered showers and TSRA development. Have tempo TSRA until
21/22z though could linger later esp for southern sites. Some MVFR
cigs could build into most sites Sunday morning. Shower and TSRA
chances are lower for Sunday, though may be high enough to warrant
prob30 TS at some locations. Winds mainly NW 8-10 kts with higher
and more VRB from any TSRA or outflows. Wind shift to NE after 05z
for KATL.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on extent of MVFR cigs Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon
precip coverage.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  88  70  93 /  50  20  10  20
Atlanta         70  88  71  92 /  30  20  10  20
Blairsville     63  83  65  87 /  20  30  20  10
Cartersville    67  89  69  91 /  20  20  10  10
Columbus        70  91  71  93 /  40  30  20  30
Gainesville     68  86  70  90 /  30  30  20  20
Macon           68  89  69  94 /  60  30  10  30
Rome            68  91  70  93 /  20  10  10  10
Peachtree City  68  88  69  92 /  40  20  10  20
Vidalia         71  87  71  92 /  70  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1103 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131515-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1103 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into evening across
North and Central Georgia. A few strong to severe storms are
possible, especially across central Georgia, with strong to
damaging wind, heavy rain, and frequent lightning being the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

There will be a chance of thunderstorms across North and Central
Georgia Sunday, then mainly confined to parts of central Georgia
Monday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms will again be possible
across North and Central Georgia on Friday. The greatest chance
will be during the afternoon and evening hours. A few stronger
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on any of these days, however no
organized or widespread severe weather is expected. The primary
threat from any thunderstorms will be frequent lightning, gusty
winds and brief heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
445 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ109-110-122115-
Telfair GA-Dodge GA-
445 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TELFAIR AND SOUTHEASTERN DODGE
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 445 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Milan, or 8 miles
southwest of McRae...moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
McRae, Helena, Lumber City, Milan, Jacksonville, Horse Creek Wma,
Workmore and Achord.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3178 8292 3179 8298 3196 8321 3203 8307
      3212 8300 3192 8267 3190 8269 3190 8270
      3186 8276 3186 8278 3185 8279 3184 8278
      3181 8282 3182 8284 3178 8286 3178 8289
      3179 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 309DEG 22KT 3199 8303

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
450 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ080-081-093-094-122115-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Taylor GA-Crawford GA-
450 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MACON...SOUTHWESTERN
PEACH...NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

At 450 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Reynolds, or 8 miles
south of Roberta...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Fort Valley, Reynolds, Lee Pope, Nakomis and Fickling Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3264 8419 3271 8416 3272 8411 3258 8386
      3250 8389 3246 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 307DEG 16KT 3260 8405

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
456 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ078-089-122130-
Harris GA-Muscogee GA-
456 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HARRIS AND NORTHWESTERN
MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 456 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Mulberry Grove, or
near Hamilton...moving south at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Hamilton, Ellerslie, Flat Rock, Laurel Hills, Midland, Cataula,
Columbus Metropolitan Airport, Fortson and Mulberry Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3278 8501 3282 8488 3259 8475 3251 8486
      3251 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 342DEG 15KT 3270 8493

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
457 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ074-122130-
Washington GA-
457 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

At 456 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered 4 miles north of
Sandersville...moving south at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Sandersville, Davisboro, Tennille, Riddleville and Warthen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3315 8280 3309 8271 3301 8264 3291 8256
      3285 8279 3296 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 359DEG 13KT 3304 8278

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
506 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ080-093-122130-
Macon GA-Taylor GA-
506 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MACON AND SOUTHERN
TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 505 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Garden Valley, or 7
miles southeast of Butler...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Butler, Garden Valley, Hicks and Potterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3248 8428 3254 8426 3257 8419 3243 8399
      3238 8402 3235 8411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 305DEG 12KT 3247 8415

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
515 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ074-076-085-122145-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Johnson GA-
515 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 514 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered 3 miles east of
Sandersville, moving south at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Sandersville, Davisboro, Tennille, Harrison, Bartow, Riddleville, New
Home and Pringle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3275 8244 3276 8264 3283 8288 3303 8286
      3303 8269 3296 8247 3281 8241 3280 8242
      3278 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 359DEG 13KT 3297 8274

WIND...40MPH