Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1058 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.UPDATE...

Adjusted afternoon temps down a bit given some solar sheltering
from lingering stratocu deck. Also made some minor pop
adjustments but still looking like greatest convective chances
will be in parts of the east and south where greater deep layer
moisture and upper impulse will be this afternoon. While shear is
weak, the extra forcing and marginal instability could allow for a
few strong to severe storms with damaging winds as main threats
with any multicell clusters or wet microbursts with the higher
PWATS. Previous discussion follows...

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 736 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021/

.Morning Area Forecast Discussion for June 12...

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Current mosaic radar loop shows some isolated showers moving south
across the state in the Northwesterly flow. These showers are
dissipating and should be done with over the next few hours. Models
are still showing a descent amount of moisture continuing across the
area with the deep layer moisture remaining east of the state across
the Carolinas. Have kept likely pops to mainly eastern and central
sections of the state with the proximity to the better moisture and
expected instability development. With the northwesterly flow
setting up, slightly drier air begins to move in Sunday so expecting
a bit less diurnally driven convective coverage Sunday afternoon.

High temps today and Sunday expected in the upper 80s to near 90 with
lows in the 60s to near 70.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Relief from the daily on and off rainfall is almost here. The long
term picks up Sunday night, where HREF members show only a few
remaining storms from earlier in the day over the CWA. One or two
members do show the possibility of a self organizing complex of
storms moving from the upstate of SC into GA, so did keep some PoPs
around in north Georgia, though otherwise remaining storms
expected to be into central Georgia by this time.

Global models continue to be fairly good agreement about the
evolution of the forecast going through next week as can be noted by
little spread in NBM forecast. Large ridge continues to build out
over western CONUS under large anticyclonic PV anomaly undergoing
a wave break early in the week while TPV is drawn into trough
over the northeastern US. TPV embedded in trough combined with
aforementioned wave break will dig the long wave trough down into
the eastern US, bringing with it a cold front that should bring
temporary relief from the humidity for a few days Tuesday into
Wednesday. An initial surge of the front should happen on
Tuesday, though it will likely stall a bit in north Georgia before
another embedded shortwave in the long wave trough will help
propel it through most of the CWA by Wednesday. This trough moves
away by Friday, and with it our winds will switch back out of the
south ahead of the next quickly moving trough, bringing with it a
return of the summer humidity and rain chances.

Pops-wise, Monday and Tuesday will see scattered storms in
primarily central Georgia, though certainly won't rule out a storm
in the north given moisture still in place. By Wednesday, only
isolated storms in far central Georgia, and not expecting much on
Thursday. Chances of rain are expected to return by the weekend with
diurnally driven showers and storms. Temperatures will be warmest on
Monday and Tuesday ahead of the approaching front, with widespread
90s and parts of central Georgia surging into the mid 90s on
Tuesday. A small cool down happens after this, bringing temperatures
more in line with June averages in the upper 80s to lower 90s for
the rest of the week.

The end of the longterm still contains the possibility of a tropical
disturbance within the GoM. Piece of vorticity that is located
within the Central American Gyre (CAG) is expected to shear off into
the western GoM some point around the very end of next week,
something that is shown by most global deterministic models and has
substantial ensemble support in the ECENS and GEFS. Like yesterday,
this is where any confidence ends. Ensembles paint a picture of
developing tropical lows anywhere from the LA coastline to the
Mexican coastline. As such, take any one model run with a grain of
salt still, including those that show the system moving towards
Georgia. More confidence about how any system may develop will come
into next week, so stay tuned.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
IFR to MVFR ceilings across the area this morning. The lower
ceiling will dissipate by 13-14z but may see some more MVFR
ceilings with any afternoon convective activity. Will see some
afternoon storms but not expecting as much coverage as yesterday.
W to NW winds expected today with speeds 10kt or less. Will see
some higher gust in and around any stronger storms this afternoon.
Winds will turn to the NE after 06z Sun.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  68  87  69 /  60  50  30  20
Atlanta         89  69  87  71 /  50  30  40  20
Blairsville     86  63  83  64 /  40  20  40  20
Cartersville    89  67  88  68 /  30  20  30  10
Columbus        88  70  89  71 /  60  30  40  20
Gainesville     89  68  86  69 /  50  30  30  20
Macon           91  69  88  68 /  60  40  40  20
Rome            91  69  90  70 /  30  20  30  10
Peachtree City  89  68  87  68 /  50  30  40  20
Vidalia         90  72  84  71 /  70  50  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01/Baker
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1103 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131515-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1103 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into evening across
North and Central Georgia. A few strong to severe storms are
possible, especially across central Georgia, with strong to
damaging wind, heavy rain, and frequent lightning being the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

There will be a chance of thunderstorms across North and Central
Georgia Sunday, then mainly confined to parts of central Georgia
Monday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms will again be possible
across North and Central Georgia on Friday. The greatest chance
will be during the afternoon and evening hours. A few stronger
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on any of these days, however no
organized or widespread severe weather is expected. The primary
threat from any thunderstorms will be frequent lightning, gusty
winds and brief heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1259 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ030-031-041-042-121730-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-Carroll GA-Paulding GA-
1259 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN
HARALSON...NORTHERN CARROLL AND SOUTHWESTERN PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL
130 PM EDT...

At 1259 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Yorkville, or 10
miles west of Dallas...moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dallas, Villa Rica, Temple, Rockmart, Hiram, Braswell, Yorkville,
Draketown, Eubank Lake, New Georgia and Van Wert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3405 8499 3386 8472 3386 8473 3377 8488
      3378 8490 3376 8490 3370 8500 3384 8509
      3384 8510 3385 8510 3394 8516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 323DEG 20KT 3394 8503

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
140 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ031-032-043-121815-
Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Paulding GA-
140 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS...SOUTHWESTERN COBB AND
SOUTHEASTERN PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 140 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Hiram, or near
Dallas...moving south at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Douglasville, Dallas, Powder Springs, Austell, Hiram, Lithia Springs,
Sweetwater Creek State Park, Brownsville, Chapel Hill and Bill Arp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3392 8472 3373 8460 3370 8463 3369 8463
      3368 8464 3368 8465 3366 8466 3365 8471
      3362 8474 3363 8475 3361 8477 3359 8480
      3389 8484
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 338DEG 13KT 3386 8475

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
201 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ044-053-054-121830-
Fayette GA-Coweta GA-South Fulton GA-
201 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAYETTE...NORTHEASTERN COWETA AND
SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 201 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Palmetto, or 12 miles
northwest of Fayetteville...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Fayetteville, Peachtree City, East Point, Union City, Fairburn,
Tyrone, Palmetto, Senoia, Turin, Chattahoochee Hills, Cannongate,
Sandy Creek and Campbellton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3363 8475 3362 8474 3365 8471 3366 8466
      3368 8465 3368 8464 3373 8460 3357 8446
      3355 8446 3355 8444 3350 8442 3348 8439
      3345 8439 3344 8440 3340 8439 3330 8461
      3360 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 324DEG 17KT 3355 8464

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH