Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
329 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Impulse on SW extent of upper low will continue to aid convective
forcing this afternoon into evening as it pushes SEWD. While
weakly sheared, the destabilization with this feature will allow
for scattered to numerous storms with isolated strong to severe
development. Strong to damaging winds is main threat from
multicell clusters or wet microbursts given the still high PWATs.

We finally get a push of some drier air ahead of some weak NW
flow aloft for Sunday so pops/precip coverage look to be decently
lower, but still have slight to low end chance across northern
majority of area and some higher chances for parts of central GA.
Temps look to be slightly lower for Sunday afternoon, but should
still make it to the upper 80s for most locations.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Long term forecast continues to show relief from frequent diurnal
storm activity and a return to a more dry weather pattern.

Extended forecast models are in good agreement over the next week
with a large ridge of high pressure positioned over the western US
and broad trough over the Northeast. Expect this trough to dig down
the east coast late Monday, dragging a cold front through Georgia.
Models continue to show a slow progression with the front through
the state with a little assistance from another shortwave to push it
through on Wednesday. Highest rain chances Monday will generally be
south of I-20 - along and south of the front, and low-end PoPs over
far central/south Georgia Tuesday and Wednesday. Although there will
be a marked humidity change through midweek over much of the area,
by Friday another trough will usher back in the higher dew points
and precip chances.

Temperatures will be warmest Monday and Tuesday ahead of the front.
Highs will largely be in the 90s each day, with muggy lows Monday
morning around 70 and above. By Tuesday morning should start seeing
a little cooler morning low temperatures. Near normal temperatures
are expected mid week with pleasant morning lows and highs in the
80s Wednesday and Thursday. Warming temperatures return for the
weekend.

There continues to be a suggestion of a tropical low in the  Gulf by
Friday/Saturday, but with a good amount of uncertainty yet, will
have to continue watching.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly 3500-5000 ft cu deck this afternoon with isolated to
scattered showers and TSRA development. Have tempo TSRA until
21/22z though could linger later esp for southern sites. Some MVFR
cigs could build into most sites Sunday morning. Shower and TSRA
chances are lower for Sunday, though may be high enough to warrant
prob30 TS at some locations. Winds mainly NW 8-10 kts with higher
and more VRB from any TSRA or outflows. Wind shift to NE after 05z
for KATL.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on extent of MVFR cigs Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon
precip coverage.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  88  70  93 /  50  20  10  20
Atlanta         70  88  71  92 /  30  20  10  20
Blairsville     63  83  65  87 /  20  30  20  10
Cartersville    67  89  69  91 /  20  20  10  10
Columbus        70  91  71  93 /  40  30  20  30
Gainesville     68  86  70  90 /  30  30  20  20
Macon           68  89  69  94 /  60  30  10  30
Rome            68  91  70  93 /  20  10  10  10
Peachtree City  68  88  69  92 /  40  20  10  20
Vidalia         71  87  71  92 /  70  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1103 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131515-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1103 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into evening across
North and Central Georgia. A few strong to severe storms are
possible, especially across central Georgia, with strong to
damaging wind, heavy rain, and frequent lightning being the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

There will be a chance of thunderstorms across North and Central
Georgia Sunday, then mainly confined to parts of central Georgia
Monday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms will again be possible
across North and Central Georgia on Friday. The greatest chance
will be during the afternoon and evening hours. A few stronger
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on any of these days, however no
organized or widespread severe weather is expected. The primary
threat from any thunderstorms will be frequent lightning, gusty
winds and brief heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
515 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ074-076-085-122145-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Johnson GA-
515 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 514 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered 3 miles east of
Sandersville, moving south at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Sandersville, Davisboro, Tennille, Harrison, Bartow, Riddleville, New
Home and Pringle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3275 8244 3276 8264 3283 8288 3303 8286
      3303 8269 3296 8247 3281 8241 3280 8242
      3278 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 359DEG 13KT 3297 8274

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
516 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ093-122145-
Macon GA-
516 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 516 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Hicks, or 11 miles
north of Oglethorpe...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Oglethorpe, Montezuma, Marshallville, Whitewater State Park, Garden
Valley, Winchester and Hicks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3228 8405 3246 8414 3252 8406 3251 8403
      3250 8403 3250 8402 3249 8401 3242 8384
      3241 8384 3233 8391
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 313DEG 16KT 3246 8406

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
518 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ072-082-083-122145-
Bibb GA-Jones GA-Twiggs GA-
518 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BIBB...SOUTHERN JONES AND
NORTHWESTERN TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 518 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Cross Keys, or near
Macon...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Macon, Payne, Payne City, Cross Keys, Wesleyan, Dry Branch, Rutland,
Franklinton, Middle Georgia Regional Airport, Fitzpatrick and Huber.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3268 8366 3289 8373 3295 8358 3276 8340
      3268 8347 3267 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 332DEG 15KT 3283 8357

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
528 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ107>109-122200-
Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
528 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILCOX...SOUTHWESTERN DODGE AND
SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 528 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Finleyson, or 10 miles
south of Hawkinsville...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Abbeville, Rochelle, Pineview, Rhine, Union, Cedar Creek, Antioch
Church, Pope City, Ocmulgee Banks, Finleyson, Wallace, Browning and
Five Points.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3213 8360 3224 8349 3207 8317 3194 8321
      3188 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 313DEG 17KT 3213 8347

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
532 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ085-086-098-122200-
Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Johnson GA-
532 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN EMANUEL...
NORTHEASTERN TREUTLEN AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
EDT...

At 532 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered near Meeks, or 11
miles west of Swainsboro...moving south at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Swainsboro, Adrian, Stillmore, Oak Park, Nunez, Covena, Orianna,
Norristown, Norristown Junction, Meeks, Lexsy, Blackville and Gillis
Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3247 8218 3243 8219 3235 8225 3239 8248
      3246 8265 3249 8264 3250 8264 3265 8259
      3253 8219 3249 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 346DEG 14KT 3259 8254

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
533 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

GAZ111-122200-
Wheeler GA-
533 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHEELER COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM EDT...

At 533 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Jordan, or 8 miles
northwest of Hazlehurst...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Telfair,
southeastern Wheeler and southern Montgomery Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3200 8273 3206 8262 3205 8260 3203 8261
      3203 8260 3201 8260 3199 8256 3197 8254
      3196 8255 3196 8257 3193 8259 3194 8260
      3193 8261 3192 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 313DEG 17KT 3198 8266

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH