Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
610 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

.UPDATE...

A Flash Flood Watch was issued for all of north and portions of
central Georgia through 2 AM Wednesday. Several swaths of heavy
rainfall have already occurred throughout the day wherein 1 to 3
inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts up to 5 inches have
occurred. The main swath of heavy rainfall is generally centered
across the Atlanta metro and points east and west. Given
supportive upper diffluence and 850mb moisture transport nearly
parallel to storm motion, localized areas of storm training and
heavy rainfall may continue to occur over the next couple of hours
this evening before convective strength and coverage are expected
to wane. Additional heavy rainfall is again expected on Tuesday
with subsequent expected convection, so for this reason the Watch
was extended through the day tomorrow.

RW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021/

..Afternoon Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of North
and most of Central Georgia, replacing the previously issued
Tornado Watch. This change was due to the downward trend of
storm scale organization with the upper-level trough supporting
mid-level lift now moving off to the northeast, but several other
severe parameters remaining relatively high. For example, MLCAPE
remains around 1500-2000 J/kg, 0-6 km Bulk Shear of 30-40kts, and
0-1 km SRH remaining around 100-150 m2/s2. CAMs have not been
overly reliable through this period, but still suggest a
southeasterly push to the line of storms going into the evening
with most convection shutting down between 8PM and midnight. For
the rest of the evening, damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat, with a chance for isolated severe hail or a brief tornado
or two also a concern. Some flash flooding will also be possible
where storms continuously train over previously saturated areas.

There should be a lull in the storms headed into the overnight,
with convection picking up once again on Tuesday. Currently, an
Enhanced Risk (3 on a scale of 0-5) for severe thunderstorms
exists over far northwestern portions of the warning area, with a
Slight Risk (2 on a scale of 0-5) existing for most of the rest
of the area. Multiple waves of storms will be possible, with
damaging wind gusts remaining the primary threat with a couple
tornadoes and storms capable of producing severe hail also a
concern. Flash flooding will also be a concern, especially over
portions of northwest Georgia with continued rainfall over areas
saturated by rains today. These storms will form ahead of a stout,
positively tilted 850 hPa trough which will act to increase low-
level lifting, provide stronger low-level winds thus increasing
the wind threat and organize a cold front that will push through
the forecast area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Thiem

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Minimal updates to Long term period with ongoing weather in the
short term. Please see previous discussion below for details.

Thiem

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 456 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021/

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Highest impact portion of fcst period will be the beginning as the
upper wave pushes across the area Tuesday night ahead of the
translated sfc cold front. The CWA looks to remain in the warm
sector of the sfc low through the overnight, which is when some of
the better juxtaposition of decent conditional instability,
marginally strong deep layer shear, and helicity rich low levels
are in place. Given such a setup, strong to severe convection
could occur anytime Tuesday night with the main threats of
damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rain. The SPC Day 2
outlook did increase/expand to have Enhanced Risk in parts of
west, then NW majority of other area in Slight Risk.

As the stronger dynamics eject NEWD, the sfc cold front elongates
and pushes farther south across the area Wed, focusing the likely
pops for showers and storms mainly across central GA by Wed
afternoon. While shear/instability is more limited, a few storms
could still be strong to isolated severe in parts of the SE CWA,
which matches up with a lingering Day 3 Marginal Risk.

Otherwise rest of fcst period looks relatively quiet with mainly
drier zonal flow for Thursday, then NW flow transition with
continued dry airmass Fri/Sat, followed by some weaker moisture
return and possible upper impulse bringing some slight to low end
chance pops for showers/storms in north GA on Sunday.

Temps dip closer to norms Wed night post CFP then decently below
climo for Thurs night and Fri night with most areas reaching the
upper 40s to low 50s.

Baker

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Widespread TSRA expected to persist into this evening through
23-03Z for most TAF sites followed by a lull overnight until
SHRA/TSRA picks up again between 14-17Z Tues. Cigs hovering at
MVFR for ATL/AHN and VFR for CSG/MCN. Guidance has cigs going high
VFR overnight but thinking is most cigs should top out at 4-6kft
overnight with patchy fog is cigs break. Winds primarily out of
the south to southwest light overnight but around 10G15kts during
the day in the storm environment.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low on overnight VSBYs/CIGs.
Medium on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  80  64  80 /  50  80  70  60
Atlanta         68  79  65  78 /  50  80  80  50
Blairsville     63  73  60  72 /  50  90  90  50
Cartersville    66  78  63  77 /  50  90  80  40
Columbus        69  83  67  80 /  60  70  60  60
Gainesville     66  77  64  77 /  50  80  80  50
Macon           69  84  66  82 /  50  70  60  60
Rome            66  78  63  77 /  40  90  90  40
Peachtree City  67  80  63  80 /  50  80  70  50
Vidalia         70  87  71  84 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Butts...Carroll...
Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...
Coweta...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...
Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...Gordon...Greene...
Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Heard...Henry...Jackson...
Jasper...Jefferson...Jones...Lamar...Lumpkin...Madison...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Newton...North Fulton...
Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Putnam...Rockdale...South Fulton...Spalding...Taliaferro...
Towns...Troup...Union...Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...
White...Whitfield...Wilkes.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Baldwin...Barrow...Bibb...Butts...Carroll...
Chattahoochee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...
DeKalb...Dooly...Douglas...Fayette...Glascock...Greene...
Gwinnett...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...
Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Macon...
Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pike...
Polk...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Troup...
Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...
Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
545 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-042145-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
545 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of north
and most of central Georgia until 9 PM EDT. Numerous
thunderstorms are expected across much of the area this afternoon
and evening. Several storms could be strong to severe. Large hail,
damaging wind gusts, brief tornadoes, and frequent lightning will
all be threats with any severe thunderstorms that occur.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of north and central
Georgia. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches overnight
could lead to localized flash flooding and river flooding
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered thunderstorms are again likely across much of the area
for Tuesday and Tuesday night with another disturbance and
frontal system. Some could be strong to severe mainly late Tuesday
afternoon into the overnight with damaging winds, isolated
tornadoes, and frequent lightning as the primary threats.

The Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect for portions of north
and central Georgia until 2 AM Wednesday morning. Additional
heavy rain would easily allow for runoff and flash flooding
potential given saturated soils.

While some isolated to scattered thunderstorms could occur on
Wednesday as a front pushes southward, any strong to isolated
severe potential should be limited to south and east central
Georgia.

No hazardous weather is expected Thursday through Saturday. A
slight chance of thunderstorms could return to north Georgia on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested until 9 PM across north and
central Georgia. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
618 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ019-020-030-031-032245-
Polk GA-Bartow GA-Paulding GA-Floyd GA-
618 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK...SOUTHWESTERN BARTOW...
NORTHERN PAULDING AND SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 618 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Esom Hill, or 9 miles
southwest of Cedartown...moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome, Cartersville, Cedartown, Rockmart, Euharlee, Aragon, Cave
Spring, Kingston, Braswell, Taylorsville, Fish Creek, Burnt Hickory
Ridge, Etna, Lindale, Esom Hill, Antioch, Van Wert, Seney and
Stilesboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3432 8497 3400 8476 3390 8517 3391 8521
      3390 8522 3390 8538 3407 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 246DEG 48KT 3396 8540

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
650 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ086-098-032315-
Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-
650 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EMANUEL AND TREUTLEN COUNTIES
UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 649 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Blackville, or near
Soperton...moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Swainsboro, Soperton, Twin City, Adrian, Stillmore, Oak Park,
Garfield, Nunez, Covena, Modoc, Canoochee, Orland, Rockledge,
Orianna, Norristown, Norristown Junction, Lexsy, Blackville, Zaidee
and George L Smith State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3256 8208 3252 8215 3244 8219
      3232 8263 3244 8270 3246 8269 3247 8265
      3250 8264 3251 8265 3252 8262 3252 8260
      3253 8259 3253 8256 3255 8257 3275 8212
      3266 8208 3265 8206 3256 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 246DEG 49KT 3243 8260

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
657 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N BONAIRE             32.57N  83.60W
05/03/2021                   HOUSTON            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** A TREE FELL ONTO A HOME. A RESIDENT OF
            THE HOME WAS KILLED BY THE TREE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100288

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
721 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE PERRY             32.47N  83.71W
05/03/2021                   HOUSTON            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE FELL ON A VEHICLE PARKED IN DRIVEWAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100289

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW WARNER ROBINS     32.63N  83.65W
05/03/2021                   HOUSTON            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWNED IN WARNER ROBBINS. ONE ON COVENTRY
            CIRCLE, ONE ON HERITAGE DRIVE AND ANOTHER ON OLA DR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100290

KS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
727 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ013-020-021-040000-
Cherokee GA-Bartow GA-Pickens GA-
727 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHEROKEE...NORTHEASTERN
BARTOW AND WESTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 727 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over White, or 9 miles
northeast of Cartersville...moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Canton, Cartersville, Ball Ground, White, Waleska, Lake Arrowhead,
Salacoa Valley, Pine Log, Blaine, Talmadge, Funkhouser and Hinton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3433 8433 3417 8476 3431 8488 3440 8478
      3440 8473 3441 8473 3441 8465 3444 8466
      3446 8465 3450 8466 3455 8460 3455 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 235DEG 23KT 3429 8473

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH