Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
738 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 456 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Beginning to see some better convective initiation over eastern
Alabama this morning, and expect moderate instability will be
sufficient for strong to severe storms by this afternoon.

A Slight Risk for severe storms has been issued by SPC for Day 1 as
upper shortwave support and strong axis of deep moisture contribute
to moderate instability. Already seeing storms firing this morning
over western and north Georgia, and expect waves of activity today,
with the coverage and intensity of afternoon storms dependent on
this morning's activity. At this point, although highest threats are
large hail and damaging winds, the environment supports a non-zero
tornado threat as well. Breaks in the activity late this morning or
early afternoon would allow daytime heating to invigorate
convection, particularly since most Hi-Res solutions are now showing
a more prominent band of storms setting up north of the Atlanta area
by mid morning rather than over the northern Gulf. As such, we can't
count on upstream convection from cutting off available ingredients.

Though PoPs do diminish into the late evening hours as the system
pulls away from the region, have continued low-end chances over
north Georgia overnight, then likely/categorical over the area
Tuesday as ample southwest flow accompanies a front.

QPF through the short-term period appears manageable, particularly
given the recent dryness. Along the southern Appalachians and
surrounding areas, generally 3 to 4 inches of ran is expected.
Outside of this area, rainfall amounts are generally 1 to 3 inches
north of the fall line, and under 1 inch to the south. It's possible
that training storms or quickly accumulating rainfall could cause
isolated drainage or flooding issues.

Muggy conditions are expected with high temperatures in the 70s and
80s, and lows generally in the 60s, matched with high cloud cover
and moisture content.

31

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Highest impact portion of fcst period will be the beginning as the
upper wave pushes across the area Tuesday night ahead of the
translated sfc cold front. The CWA looks to remain in the warm
sector of the sfc low through the overnight, which is when some of
the better juxtaposition of decent conditional instability,
marginally strong deep layer shear, and helicity rich low levels
are in place. Given such a setup, strong to severe convection
could occur anytime Tuesday night with the main threats of
damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rain. The SPC Day 2
outlook did increase/expand to have Enhanced Risk in parts of
west, then NW majority of other area in Slight Risk.

As the stronger dynamics eject NEWD, the sfc cold front elongates
and pushes farther south across the area Wed, focusing the likely
pops for showers and storms mainly across central GA by Wed
afternoon. While shear/instability is more limited, a few storms
could still be strong to isolated severe in parts of the SE CWA,
which matches up with a lingering Day 3 Marginal Risk.

Otherwise rest of fcst period looks relatively quiet with mainly
drier zonal flow for Thursday, then NW flow transition with
continued dry airmass Fri/Sat, followed by some weaker moisture
return and possible upper impulse bringing some slight to low end
chance pops for showers/storms in north GA on Sunday.

Temps dip closer to norms Wed night post CFP then decently below
climo for Thurs night and Fri night with most areas reaching the
upper 40s to low 50s.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Showers and thunderstorms will impact the area today in two
'waves'. Following this morning's activity, a brief lull is
expected before a band or line of storms develops and moves south
of Atlanta-area sites and into central Georgia this afternoon and
evening. Winds will be generally SSW at 8-12kt with gusts to
20-22kt, but could briefly go SSE. Mostly IFR/MVFR conditions this
morning will improve to high MVFR or low VFR today, then degrade
again to IFR Tuesday morning.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low on specific TS timing at KATL.
High on wind speeds.
Medium on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          79  66  81  66 /  70  40  80  80
Atlanta         79  68  81  67 /  80  40  90  80
Blairsville     74  62  76  60 /  90  50  90  90
Cartersville    79  65  82  63 /  80  40  90  90
Columbus        82  69  85  67 /  70  40  80  80
Gainesville     76  66  79  66 /  80  40  90  90
Macon           84  68  85  67 /  50  40  70  60
Rome            80  66  82  64 /  80  40  90  90
Peachtree City  80  67  82  65 /  70  30  90  80
Vidalia         90  70  91  71 /  30  20  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
506 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
506 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are likely across much of the area today.
Some could be strong to isolated severe with hail up to one inch,
damaging winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning as the primary
threats. A brief tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered thunderstorms are again likely across much of the area
for Tuesday and Tuesday night with another disturbance and
frontal system. Some could be strong to severe mainly late Tuesday
afternoon into the overnight with damaging winds, isolated
tornadoes, heavy rain and frequent lightning as the primary
threats.

While some isolated to scattered thunderstorms could occur on
Wednesday as a front pushes southward, any strong to isolated
severe potential should be limited to south and east central
Georgia.

No hazardous weather is expected Thursday through Saturday. A
slight chance of thunderstorms could return to north Georgia on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested at this time, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of severe weather through the web
by going to weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
850 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ041-042-031315-
Haralson GA-Carroll GA-
850 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARALSON AND
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM EDT...

At 850 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Mount Zion to near Micaville...and moving east at
30 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Carrollton, Villa Rica, Bremen, Temple, Bowdon, Mount Zion, Waco,
Abilene, John Tanner State Park, Bowdon Junction and Tyus.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3372 8527 3377 8490 3376 8490 3346 8518
      3345 8530 3366 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1250Z 254DEG 26KT 3366 8523 3348 8551

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
911 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ076-085-086-031345-
Jefferson GA-Emanuel GA-Johnson GA-
911 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHERN
EMANUEL AND EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM EDT...

At 911 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Blundale, or 10 miles
northwest of Swainsboro...moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Summertown, Blundale, Three Points, Colemans Lake and Dellwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3264 8245 3275 8252 3289 8230 3284 8232
      3283 8231 3283 8226 3281 8225 3281 8223
      3280 8221 3282 8216 3281 8214 3276 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 1311Z 237DEG 33KT 3273 8243

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH