Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
205 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...18Z Aviation Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1202 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021/

UPDATE...

A Tornado Watch continues for portions of North and Central
Georgia until 4 PM EDT as environmental parameters ramped up
quickly to produce cyclic supercells around the Atlanta
metropolitan area earlier this morning with at least one radar
confirmed tornado in central Fulton county. Trends look to be
decreasing as storms are organizing into a more linear structure
with mesocyclones occluding quickly, but quick spin-up tornadoes
remain a possibility along with damaging wind gusts, and a chance
for large hail through the rest of the afternoon. Storms will
persist through the afternoon into the early evening with very
warm, and moist Gulf airmass in place over the forecast area. A
break is expected tonight with a lull in mid-level forcing before
storms make their way back into the forecast area tomorrow as
well.

Thiem

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 738 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Beginning to see some better convective initiation over eastern
Alabama this morning, and expect moderate instability will be
sufficient for strong to severe storms by this afternoon.

A Slight Risk for severe storms has been issued by SPC for Day 1 as
upper shortwave support and strong axis of deep moisture contribute
to moderate instability. Already seeing storms firing this morning
over western and north Georgia, and expect waves of activity today,
with the coverage and intensity of afternoon storms dependent on
this morning's activity. At this point, although highest threats are
large hail and damaging winds, the environment supports a non-zero
tornado threat as well. Breaks in the activity late this morning or
early afternoon would allow daytime heating to invigorate
convection, particularly since most Hi-Res solutions are now showing
a more prominent band of storms setting up north of the Atlanta area
by mid morning rather than over the northern Gulf. As such, we can't
count on upstream convection from cutting off available ingredients.

Though PoPs do diminish into the late evening hours as the system
pulls away from the region, have continued low-end chances over
north Georgia overnight, then likely/categorical over the area
Tuesday as ample southwest flow accompanies a front.

QPF through the short-term period appears manageable, particularly
given the recent dryness. Along the southern Appalachians and
surrounding areas, generally 3 to 4 inches of ran is expected.
Outside of this area, rainfall amounts are generally 1 to 3 inches
north of the fall line, and under 1 inch to the south. It's possible
that training storms or quickly accumulating rainfall could cause
isolated drainage or flooding issues.

Muggy conditions are expected with high temperatures in the 70s and
80s, and lows generally in the 60s, matched with high cloud cover
and moisture content.

31

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Highest impact portion of fcst period will be the beginning as the
upper wave pushes across the area Tuesday night ahead of the
translated sfc cold front. The CWA looks to remain in the warm
sector of the sfc low through the overnight, which is when some of
the better juxtaposition of decent conditional instability,
marginally strong deep layer shear, and helicity rich low levels
are in place. Given such a setup, strong to severe convection
could occur anytime Tuesday night with the main threats of
damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rain. The SPC Day 2
outlook did increase/expand to have Enhanced Risk in parts of
west, then NW majority of other area in Slight Risk.

As the stronger dynamics eject NEWD, the sfc cold front elongates
and pushes farther south across the area Wed, focusing the likely
pops for showers and storms mainly across central GA by Wed
afternoon. While shear/instability is more limited, a few storms
could still be strong to isolated severe in parts of the SE CWA,
which matches up with a lingering Day 3 Marginal Risk.

Otherwise rest of fcst period looks relatively quiet with mainly
drier zonal flow for Thursday, then NW flow transition with
continued dry airmass Fri/Sat, followed by some weaker moisture
return and possible upper impulse bringing some slight to low end
chance pops for showers/storms in north GA on Sunday.

Temps dip closer to norms Wed night post CFP then decently below
climo for Thurs night and Fri night with most areas reaching the
upper 40s to low 50s.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Widespread TSRA expected to persist into this evening through
23-03Z for most TAF sites followed by a lull overnight until
SHRA/TSRA picks up again between 14-17Z Tues. Cigs hovering at
MVFR for ATL/AHN and VFR for CSG/MCN. Guidance has cigs going high
VFR overnight but thinking is most cigs should top out at 4-6kft
overnight with patchy fog is cigs break. Winds primarily out of
the south to southwest light overnight but around 10G15kts during
the day in the storm environment.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low on overnight VSBYs/CIGs.
Medium on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          79  66  81  66 /  70  40  80  80
Atlanta         79  68  81  67 /  70  40  80  80
Blairsville     74  62  76  60 /  90  50  90  90
Cartersville    79  65  82  63 /  80  40  90  90
Columbus        82  69  85  67 /  70  40  70  80
Gainesville     76  66  79  66 /  90  40  90  90
Macon           84  68  85  67 /  50  30  70  60
Rome            80  66  82  64 /  80  40  90  90
Peachtree City  80  67  82  65 /  70  40  80  80
Vidalia         90  70  91  71 /  30  20  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for the following
zones: Baldwin...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Butts...Carroll...
Chattahoochee...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...
Crawford...DeKalb...Douglas...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...
Greene...Gwinnett...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...
Henry...Jasper...Jones...Lamar...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Pike...Polk...Putnam...Rockdale...South
Fulton...Spalding...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Troup...
Upson...Walton...Warren...Wilkes.

&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
506 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
506 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are likely across much of the area today.
Some could be strong to isolated severe with hail up to one inch,
damaging winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning as the primary
threats. A brief tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered thunderstorms are again likely across much of the area
for Tuesday and Tuesday night with another disturbance and
frontal system. Some could be strong to severe mainly late Tuesday
afternoon into the overnight with damaging winds, isolated
tornadoes, heavy rain and frequent lightning as the primary
threats.

While some isolated to scattered thunderstorms could occur on
Wednesday as a front pushes southward, any strong to isolated
severe potential should be limited to south and east central
Georgia.

No hazardous weather is expected Thursday through Saturday. A
slight chance of thunderstorms could return to north Georgia on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested at this time, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of severe weather through the web
by going to weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
109 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 AM     TORNADO          2 ENE BILL ARP          33.68N  84.78W
05/03/2021                   DOUGLAS            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            **PRELIMINARY REPORT** POSSIBLE TORNADO OCCURED JUST
            EAST OF THE BILL ARP COMMUNITY. SOME REPORTS OF TREES
            DOWN ALONG KINGS HWY IN THIS AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100280

LUSK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
118 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     HAIL             4 S WALKER MILL         33.24N  84.18W
05/03/2021  E1.00 INCH       SPALDING           GA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY
            16 AND SOUTH WALKERS MILL RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100281

NM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
119 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ027-031730-
Madison GA-
119 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM EDT...

At 119 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Paoli, or 8 miles east
of Danielsville...moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Comer and Paoli.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3417 8310 3416 8309 3415 8306 3412 8305
      3411 8303 3410 8304 3406 8299 3405 8314
      3416 8317 3419 8309
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 253DEG 27KT 3412 8308

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TORNADO          2 W SANDTOWN            33.71N  84.59W
05/03/2021                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PARTIAL COLLAPSE OF APARTMENT BUILDING AT RIVERSIDE DR
            AND FULTON INDUSTRIAL BLVD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100282

LUSK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE BETHLEHEM         33.94N  83.68W
05/03/2021                   BARROW             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO A HOME NEAR OLD
            PEPPERS ROAD AND JACKSON TRAIL ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100283

LUSK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
230 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ079-080-089>091-031915-
Chattahoochee GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-Talbot GA-Muscogee GA-
230 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTAHOOCHEE...WESTERN TAYLOR...
NORTHERN MARION...SOUTHWESTERN TALBOT AND EASTERN MUSCOGEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 229 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Sand Hill, or near
Cusseta...moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Talbotton, Cusseta, Junction City, Geneva, North Fort Benning,
Upatoi, Juniper, Vista Terrace, Jamestown/south Fort Benning,
Baughville, Oakland, Howard, Eelbeck/West Fort Benning, Benning
Hills, Christopher, Sand Hill, Battle Park, Baldwinville, Olive
Branch and Po Biddy Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3238 8497 3238 8499 3259 8479 3259 8469
      3268 8470 3278 8460 3253 8423 3225 8485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 227DEG 38KT 3237 8485

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH