Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1202 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

.UPDATE...

A Tornado Watch continues for portions of North and Central
Georgia until 4 PM EDT as environmental parameters ramped up
quickly to produce cyclic supercells around the Atlanta
metropolitan area earlier this morning with at least one radar
confirmed tornado in central Fulton county. Trends look to be
decreasing as storms are organizing into a more linear structure
with mesocyclones occluding quickly, but quick spin-up tornadoes
remain a possibility along with damaging wind gusts, and a chance
for large hail through the rest of the afternoon. Storms will
persist through the afternoon into the early evening with very
warm, and moist Gulf airmass in place over the forecast area. A
break is expected tonight with a lull in mid-level forcing before
storms make their way back into the forecast area tomorrow as
well.

Thiem

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 738 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Beginning to see some better convective initiation over eastern
Alabama this morning, and expect moderate instability will be
sufficient for strong to severe storms by this afternoon.

A Slight Risk for severe storms has been issued by SPC for Day 1 as
upper shortwave support and strong axis of deep moisture contribute
to moderate instability. Already seeing storms firing this morning
over western and north Georgia, and expect waves of activity today,
with the coverage and intensity of afternoon storms dependent on
this morning's activity. At this point, although highest threats are
large hail and damaging winds, the environment supports a non-zero
tornado threat as well. Breaks in the activity late this morning or
early afternoon would allow daytime heating to invigorate
convection, particularly since most Hi-Res solutions are now showing
a more prominent band of storms setting up north of the Atlanta area
by mid morning rather than over the northern Gulf. As such, we can't
count on upstream convection from cutting off available ingredients.

Though PoPs do diminish into the late evening hours as the system
pulls away from the region, have continued low-end chances over
north Georgia overnight, then likely/categorical over the area
Tuesday as ample southwest flow accompanies a front.

QPF through the short-term period appears manageable, particularly
given the recent dryness. Along the southern Appalachians and
surrounding areas, generally 3 to 4 inches of ran is expected.
Outside of this area, rainfall amounts are generally 1 to 3 inches
north of the fall line, and under 1 inch to the south. It's possible
that training storms or quickly accumulating rainfall could cause
isolated drainage or flooding issues.

Muggy conditions are expected with high temperatures in the 70s and
80s, and lows generally in the 60s, matched with high cloud cover
and moisture content.

31

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Highest impact portion of fcst period will be the beginning as the
upper wave pushes across the area Tuesday night ahead of the
translated sfc cold front. The CWA looks to remain in the warm
sector of the sfc low through the overnight, which is when some of
the better juxtaposition of decent conditional instability,
marginally strong deep layer shear, and helicity rich low levels
are in place. Given such a setup, strong to severe convection
could occur anytime Tuesday night with the main threats of
damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rain. The SPC Day 2
outlook did increase/expand to have Enhanced Risk in parts of
west, then NW majority of other area in Slight Risk.

As the stronger dynamics eject NEWD, the sfc cold front elongates
and pushes farther south across the area Wed, focusing the likely
pops for showers and storms mainly across central GA by Wed
afternoon. While shear/instability is more limited, a few storms
could still be strong to isolated severe in parts of the SE CWA,
which matches up with a lingering Day 3 Marginal Risk.

Otherwise rest of fcst period looks relatively quiet with mainly
drier zonal flow for Thursday, then NW flow transition with
continued dry airmass Fri/Sat, followed by some weaker moisture
return and possible upper impulse bringing some slight to low end
chance pops for showers/storms in north GA on Sunday.

Temps dip closer to norms Wed night post CFP then decently below
climo for Thurs night and Fri night with most areas reaching the
upper 40s to low 50s.

Baker

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Showers and thunderstorms will impact the area today in two
'waves'. Following this morning's activity, a brief lull is
expected before a band or line of storms develops and moves south
of Atlanta-area sites and into central Georgia this afternoon and
evening. Winds will be generally SSW at 8-12kt with gusts to
20-22kt, but could briefly go SSE. Mostly IFR/MVFR conditions this
morning will improve to high MVFR or low VFR today, then degrade
again to IFR Tuesday morning.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low on specific TS timing at KATL.
High on wind speeds.
Medium on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          79  66  81  66 /  70  40  80  80
Atlanta         79  68  81  67 /  70  40  90  80
Blairsville     74  62  76  60 /  90  50  90  90
Cartersville    79  65  82  63 /  80  40  90  90
Columbus        82  69  85  67 /  70  40  80  80
Gainesville     76  66  79  66 /  90  40  90  90
Macon           84  68  85  67 /  50  40  70  60
Rome            80  66  82  64 /  80  40  90  90
Peachtree City  80  67  82  65 /  70  30  90  80
Vidalia         90  70  91  71 /  30  20  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for the following
zones: Baldwin...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Butts...Carroll...
Chattahoochee...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...
Crawford...DeKalb...Douglas...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...
Greene...Gwinnett...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...
Henry...Jasper...Jones...Lamar...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Pike...Polk...Putnam...Rockdale...South
Fulton...Spalding...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Troup...
Upson...Walton...Warren...Wilkes.

&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
506 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
506 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are likely across much of the area today.
Some could be strong to isolated severe with hail up to one inch,
damaging winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning as the primary
threats. A brief tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered thunderstorms are again likely across much of the area
for Tuesday and Tuesday night with another disturbance and
frontal system. Some could be strong to severe mainly late Tuesday
afternoon into the overnight with damaging winds, isolated
tornadoes, heavy rain and frequent lightning as the primary
threats.

While some isolated to scattered thunderstorms could occur on
Wednesday as a front pushes southward, any strong to isolated
severe potential should be limited to south and east central
Georgia.

No hazardous weather is expected Thursday through Saturday. A
slight chance of thunderstorms could return to north Georgia on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested at this time, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of severe weather through the web
by going to weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1246 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ021-022-032>034-045-031715-
North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-DeKalb GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-
1246 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...NORTHEASTERN
COBB...SOUTHERN CHEROKEE...NORTHWESTERN DEKALB...SOUTHWESTERN FORSYTH
AND WESTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

At 1246 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Sandy Plains, or near
Marietta...moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Marietta, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Smyrna,
Dunwoody, Milton, Duluth, Woodstock, Lilburn, Chamblee, Norcross,
Doraville, Berkeley Lake, Fair Oaks, North Atlanta, Mountain Park,
Mount Bethel and Brookwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3408 8455 3414 8444 3418 8427 3417 8413
      3390 8411 3388 8455
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 256DEG 44KT 3401 8449

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1254 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ048-056>059-068-070-071-031730-
Butts GA-Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Jasper GA-Spalding GA-Newton GA-Pike GA-
Henry GA-
1254 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTTS...NORTHERN LAMAR...NORTHERN
MONROE...SOUTHWESTERN JASPER...EASTERN SPALDING...SOUTHERN NEWTON...
NORTHEASTERN PIKE AND SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

At 1254 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Orchard Hill, or near
Griffin...moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Griffin, Jackson, Locust Grove, Flovilla, Milner, Jenkinsburg,
Orchard Hill, East Griffin, Highland Mills, Worthville, Experiment,
Walker Mill, McKibben, Chappel Mill, High Falls State Park, Blount,
Liberty Hill, Indian Springs State Park, Fincherville and Stark.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3309 8424 3326 8433 3345 8390 3319 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 246DEG 39KT 3321 8421

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
106 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ036-037-031730-
Clarke GA-Oconee GA-
106 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLARKE AND NORTHERN OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

At 106 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Bogart, or near
Athens...moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Watkinsville, Athens, Winterville, Bogart, Hull, Athens-Clarke
County, Whitehall, Westgate Park, James Holland Youth Sports Cmpx,
Beechwood Hills, Oconee Heights, Barretts Mill, State Botanical
Garden Of Ga, Eastville and Sandy Creek Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3402 8331 3400 8326 3399 8327 3398 8327
      3396 8326 3395 8328 3393 8327 3386 8329
      3389 8359 3395 8357 3398 8351 3400 8350
      3399 8348 3402 8343 3403 8336
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 266DEG 28KT 3394 8348

WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
109 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 AM     TORNADO          2 ENE BILL ARP          33.68N  84.78W
05/03/2021                   DOUGLAS            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            **PRELIMINARY REPORT** POSSIBLE TORNADO OCCURED JUST
            EAST OF THE BILL ARP COMMUNITY. SOME REPORTS OF TREES
            DOWN ALONG KINGS HWY IN THIS AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100280

LUSK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
118 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     HAIL             4 S WALKER MILL         33.24N  84.18W
05/03/2021  E1.00 INCH       SPALDING           GA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY
            16 AND SOUTH WALKERS MILL RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100281

NM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
119 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ027-031730-
Madison GA-
119 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM EDT...

At 119 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Paoli, or 8 miles east
of Danielsville...moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Comer and Paoli.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3417 8310 3416 8309 3415 8306 3412 8305
      3411 8303 3410 8304 3406 8299 3405 8314
      3416 8317 3419 8309
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 253DEG 27KT 3412 8308

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH