Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
353 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...Afternoon Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of North
and most of Central Georgia, replacing the previously issued
Tornado Watch. This change was due to the downward trend of
storm scale organization with the upper-level trough supporting
mid-level lift now moving off to the northeast, but several other
severe parameters remaining relatively high. For example, MLCAPE
remains around 1500-2000 J/kg, 0-6 km Bulk Shear of 30-40kts, and
0-1 km SRH remaining around 100-150 m2/s2. CAMs have not been
overly reliable through this period, but still suggest a
southeasterly push to the line of storms going into the evening
with most convection shutting down between 8PM and midnight. For
the rest of the evening, damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat, with a chance for isolated severe hail or a brief tornado
or two also a concern. Some flash flooding will also be possible
where storms continuously train over previously saturated areas.

There should be a lull in the storms headed into the overnight,
with convection picking up once again on Tuesday. Currently, an
Enhanced Risk (3 on a scale of 0-5) for severe thunderstorms
exists over far northwestern portions of the warning area, with a
Slight Risk (2 on a scale of 0-5) existing for most of the rest
of the area. Multiple waves of storms will be possible, with
damaging wind gusts remaining the primary threat with a couple
tornadoes and storms capable of producing severe hail also a
concern. Flash flooding will also be a concern, especially over
portions of northwest Georgia with continued rainfall over areas
saturated by rains today. These storms will form ahead of a stout,
positively tilted 850 hPa trough which will act to increase low-
level lifting, provide stronger low-level winds thus increasing
the wind threat and organize a cold front that will push through
the forecast area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Thiem

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Minimal updates to Long term period with ongoing weather in the
short term. Please see previous discussion below for details.

Thiem

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 456 AM EDT Mon May 3 2021/

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Highest impact portion of fcst period will be the beginning as the
upper wave pushes across the area Tuesday night ahead of the
translated sfc cold front. The CWA looks to remain in the warm
sector of the sfc low through the overnight, which is when some of
the better juxtaposition of decent conditional instability,
marginally strong deep layer shear, and helicity rich low levels
are in place. Given such a setup, strong to severe convection
could occur anytime Tuesday night with the main threats of
damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rain. The SPC Day 2
outlook did increase/expand to have Enhanced Risk in parts of
west, then NW majority of other area in Slight Risk.

As the stronger dynamics eject NEWD, the sfc cold front elongates
and pushes farther south across the area Wed, focusing the likely
pops for showers and storms mainly across central GA by Wed
afternoon. While shear/instability is more limited, a few storms
could still be strong to isolated severe in parts of the SE CWA,
which matches up with a lingering Day 3 Marginal Risk.

Otherwise rest of fcst period looks relatively quiet with mainly
drier zonal flow for Thursday, then NW flow transition with
continued dry airmass Fri/Sat, followed by some weaker moisture
return and possible upper impulse bringing some slight to low end
chance pops for showers/storms in north GA on Sunday.

Temps dip closer to norms Wed night post CFP then decently below
climo for Thurs night and Fri night with most areas reaching the
upper 40s to low 50s.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Widespread TSRA expected to persist into this evening through
23-03Z for most TAF sites followed by a lull overnight until
SHRA/TSRA picks up again between 14-17Z Tues. Cigs hovering at
MVFR for ATL/AHN and VFR for CSG/MCN. Guidance has cigs going high
VFR overnight but thinking is most cigs should top out at 4-6kft
overnight with patchy fog is cigs break. Winds primarily out of
the south to southwest light overnight but around 10G15kts during
the day in the storm environment.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low on overnight VSBYs/CIGs.
Medium on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  80  64  80 /  50  80  70  60
Atlanta         68  79  65  78 /  50  80  80  50
Blairsville     63  73  60  72 /  50  90  90  50
Cartersville    66  78  63  77 /  50  90  80  40
Columbus        69  83  67  80 /  60  70  60  60
Gainesville     66  77  64  77 /  50  80  80  50
Macon           69  84  66  82 /  50  70  60  60
Rome            66  78  63  77 /  40  90  90  40
Peachtree City  67  80  63  80 /  50  80  70  50
Vidalia         70  87  71  84 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Baldwin...Barrow...Bibb...Butts...Carroll...
Chattahoochee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...
DeKalb...Dooly...Douglas...Fayette...Glascock...Greene...
Gwinnett...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...
Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Macon...
Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pike...
Polk...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Troup...
Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...
Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
545 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-042145-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
545 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of north
and most of central Georgia until 9 PM EDT. Numerous
thunderstorms are expected across much of the area this afternoon
and evening. Several storms could be strong to severe. Large hail,
damaging wind gusts, brief tornadoes, and frequent lightning will
all be threats with any severe thunderstorms that occur.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of north and central
Georgia. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches overnight
could lead to localized flash flooding and river flooding
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered thunderstorms are again likely across much of the area
for Tuesday and Tuesday night with another disturbance and
frontal system. Some could be strong to severe mainly late Tuesday
afternoon into the overnight with damaging winds, isolated
tornadoes, and frequent lightning as the primary threats.

The Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect for portions of north
and central Georgia until 2 AM Wednesday morning. Additional
heavy rain would easily allow for runoff and flash flooding
potential given saturated soils.

While some isolated to scattered thunderstorms could occur on
Wednesday as a front pushes southward, any strong to isolated
severe potential should be limited to south and east central
Georgia.

No hazardous weather is expected Thursday through Saturday. A
slight chance of thunderstorms could return to north Georgia on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested until 9 PM across north and
central Georgia. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
431 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ035>037-047-049-032100-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Barrow GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-
431 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MORGAN...NORTHEASTERN
WALTON...SOUTHERN BARROW...CLARKE AND OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

At 431 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Nicholasville, or near
Monroe...moving east at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Winder, Monroe, Watkinsville, Athens, Statham, Winterville, Bogart,
North High Shoals, Bethlehem, Bostwick, Between, Good Hope, Bishop,
Hull, Whitehall, Athens-Clarke County, Westgate Park, Fort Yargo
State Park, Beechwood Hills and Oconee Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3400 8326 3395 8328 3390 8324 3381 8330
      3379 8328 3376 8328 3373 8330 3370 8340
      3369 8340 3379 8384 3391 8383 3393 8380
      3398 8382 3401 8355 3397 8354 3399 8350
      3400 8350 3399 8348 3402 8341 3403 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 274DEG 49KT 3388 8374

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
437 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ073-074-032100-
Washington GA-Baldwin GA-
437 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN
BALDWIN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 437 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Hebron, or 10 miles
southeast of Milledgeville...moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Sandersville, Tennille, Harrison, Oconee, Deepstep, Warthen and
Hebron.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3287 8304 3294 8307 3298 8312 3300 8313
      3301 8315 3297 8316 3297 8317 3300 8316
      3308 8316 3309 8312 3305 8310 3308 8305
      3308 8301 3311 8297 3315 8270 3279 8269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 271DEG 26KT 3299 8308

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
438 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ042-052-053-032115-
Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Heard GA-
438 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COWETA...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND
NORTHEASTERN HEARD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 438 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Centralhatchee, or 7
miles north of Franklin...moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Newnan, Franklin, Palmetto, Whitesburg, Centralhatchee, Moreland,
Sharpsburg, Turin, Roopville, East Newnan, Plant Yates,
Arnco-Sargent, Powers Crossroads, Handy, Dunaway Gardens, Cannongate,
Lowell, Plant Wansley, Roscoe and Thomas Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3353 8482 3351 8482 3351 8466 3329 8462
      3327 8513 3345 8517
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 261DEG 31KT 3338 8507

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
448 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE MILLEDGEVILLE      33.11N  83.18W
05/03/2021                   BALDWIN            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON A HOME AT THE 100 BLOCK OF JUNIOR
            HILL RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100287

KING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
506 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ033-044-054-055-032130-
Fayette GA-North Fulton GA-Clayton GA-South Fulton GA-
506 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FAYETTE...NORTH
FULTON...CLAYTON AND SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 506 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Sandy Creek, or 8
miles northwest of Fayetteville...moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Peachtree City, East Point,
Stockbridge, Union City, Forest Park, Riverdale, College Park,
Fairburn, Tyrone, Morrow, Lovejoy, Hapeville, Palmetto, Lake City,
Hartsfield-Jackson Airport, Grant Park-Zoo Atlanta and Lake Spivey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3375 8435 3365 8435 3365 8429 3363 8426
      3361 8426 3359 8425 3358 8426 3355 8426
      3355 8429 3349 8428 3348 8429 3344 8429
      3342 8462 3346 8463 3350 8461 3351 8462
      3351 8465 3359 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 254DEG 31KT 3353 8456

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
546 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

GAZ020-030>032-032215-
Polk GA-Cobb GA-Bartow GA-Paulding GA-
546 PM EDT Mon May 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN POLK...NORTHWESTERN
COBB...SOUTHERN BARTOW AND NORTHERN PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
EDT...

At 546 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Van Wert, or 10 miles
east of Cedartown...moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Marietta, Cartersville, Dallas, Kennesaw, Acworth, Rockmart,
Euharlee, Emerson, Aragon, White, Braswell, Taylorsville, Yorkville,
Fish Creek, Burnt Hickory Ridge, Red Top Mountain State Park, Lost
Mountain Park, Antioch, Van Wert and George Washington Carver St Pk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3410 8507 3410 8505 3411 8504 3429 8473
      3415 8466 3408 8466 3408 8462 3395 8455
      3387 8504 3390 8504 3391 8514 3402 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 244DEG 37KT 3398 8508

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH