Special Marine Warning 252, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
122 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Thursday]

Hurricane Sally is slowly drifting towards the southern Alabama
coastline early this morning. The official track from NHC has
Sally moving into southern and southeast Alabama Wednesday night.
Expect a continuance of low MVFR and IFR in rain and isold storms
this period, especially from TLH-ABY and westward. Winds will also
increase and be gusty through the day; higher wind speeds will be
closer to the track (ECP and DHN) and in heavier rain bands on the
east side of the center.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1019 PM EDT]...

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Hurricane Sally continues to move slowly northward possibly
making landfall just west of Pensacola after daybreak Wednesday
and then gradually turning more to the northeast into central
Georgia by Thursday night. Impacts from Sally will extend well
north and east of the center and continue across our area. These
impacts include very heavy rainfall potentially leading to
significant flash flooding especially along and west of the
rivers, tropical storm force winds along the immediate coast,
minor storm surge flooding above normally dry ground, the
potential for a few tornadoes, and hazardous beach and marine
conditions. Please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement on our
webpage at www.weather.gov/tae for all current watches/warnings
and impacts from Hurricane Sally. The biggest change from our
previous forecast package is that we've expanded the Flash Flood
Watch to include most of our west central Georgia counties along
with Gadsden County in Florida. The watch is in effect through
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Sally or it's remnants is forecast to be moving northeastward
across the Carolina's on Friday with a continuation of high rain
chances locally due to a moist southwest flow off the gulf. Over
the weekend, a cold front will approach from the north and
possibly push through our CWA over the weekend before stalling
just to our south. However, models hint of an overrunning event
setting up with clouds and rain chances continuing into early next
week. Temperatures will be below seasonal normals through the
extended period.

.MARINE...

Hurricane Sally will continue tracking slowly northward tonight
and is forecast to make landfall west of our local waters
Wednesday morning. Dangerous boating and beach conditions will
continue, especially across our western segments until at least
Thursday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Nighttime dispersion values will be elevated the next few nights
due to higher than normal transport winds due to Hurricane Sally.
There are no fire weather concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...

Rain bands will continue to move onshore over the next few days
as Sally slowing moves northward and then northeast around the
western and northern periphery of our forecast area. Therefore,
the threat for flooding will continue and the Flash Flood Watch
has been expanded to include most of our west central Georgia
counties along with Gadsden County Florida. WPC has a moderate
risk for flash flooding for the western Florida Panhandle and
southeast Alabama through Wednesday night.

As Coastal Flood Advisory continues for the entire coast as 1 to
3 feet of storm surge will be possible through Wednesday. River
levels are rising slowly and we are monitoring them closely. River
flooding may become an issue later this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   82  74  85  71  85 /  90  90  80  50  50
Panama City   82  76  85  73  86 / 100  90  70  40  40
Dothan        77  71  80  68  82 /  90  90  80  40  40
Albany        77  73  82  71  81 /  90  90  90  50  50
Valdosta      82  73  84  71  84 /  80  80  90  40  60
Cross City    85  74  86  74  87 /  80  70  80  50  60
Apalachicola  83  77  85  74  85 /  90  90  80  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Jackson-
     Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-North Walton-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Storm Surge Warning for South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Baker-Calhoun-
     Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee-Geneva.

GM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico
     Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Barry

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
146 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW BLUE MOUNTAIN BEA 30.35N 86.23W
09/16/2020  M9.75 INCH       WALTON             FL   MESONET

            A RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 9.75 INCHES WAS
            MEASURED BY A MESONET LOCATED AT THE ED
            WALLINE BEACH ACCESS.

&&

LF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
148 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N INLET BEACH         30.28N 86.01W
09/16/2020  M11.01 INCH      WALTON             FL   MESONET

            A RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 11.01 INCHES WAS
            MEASURED BY A MESONET LOCATED AT FSWN INLET
            BEACH.

&&

LF