River Flood Warning 62, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
651 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Thursday]

Outer bands from Hurricane Sally continue to impact the area, with
ECP, TLH, and DHN seeing RA w/gusty SE winds, and lighter rain/winds
at VLD and ABY. Mainly MVFR conds prevail thru this TAF cycle outside
of the heaviest bands where IFR vsbys are possible. IFR cigs are
forecast at all terminals in 4-9Z timeframe before coming back up
to MVFR. On and off rain is expected with periods of heavy rain
(especially at ECP, DHN, and TLH).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [444 PM EDT]...

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Hurricane Sally continues to move slowly northward possibly
making landfall just west of Pensacola after daybreak Wednesday
and then gradually turning more to the northeast into central
Georgia by Thursday night. Impacts from Sally will extend well
north and east of the center and continue across our area. These
impacts include very heavy rainfall potentially leading to
significant flash flooding especially along and west of the
rivers, tropical storm force winds along the immediate coast,
minor storm surge flooding above normally dry ground, the
potential for a few tornadoes, and hazardous beach and marine
conditions. Please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement on our
webpage at www.weather.gov/tae for all current watches/warnings
and impacts from Hurricane Sally. The biggest change from our
previous forecast package is that we've expanded the Flash Flood
Watch to include most of our west central Georgia counties along
with Gadsden County in Florida. The watch is in effect through
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Sally or it's remnants is forecast to be moving northeastward
across the Carolina's on Friday with a continuation of high rain
chances locally due to a moist southwest flow off the gulf. Over
the weekend, a cold front will approach from the north and
possibly push through our CWA over the weekend before stalling
just to our south. However, models hint of an overrunning event
setting up with clouds and rain chances continuing into early next
week. Temperatures will be below seasonal normals through the
extended period.

.MARINE...

Hurricane Sally will continue tracking slowly northward tonight
and is forecast to make landfall west of our local waters
Wednesday morning. Dangerous boating and beach conditions will
continue, especially across our western segments until at least
Thursday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Nighttime dispersion values will be elevated the next few nights
due to higher than normal transport winds due to Hurricane Sally.
There are no fire weather concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...

Rain bands will continue to move onshore over the next few days
as Sally slowing moves northward and then northeast around the
western and northern periphery of our forecast area. Therefore,
the threat for flooding will continue and the Flash Flood Watch
has been expanded to include most of our west central Georgia
counties along with Gadsden County Florida. WPC has a moderate
risk for flash flooding for the western Florida Panhandle and
southeast Alabama through Wednesday night.

As Coastal Flood Advisory continues for the entire coast as 1 to
3 feet of storm surge will be possible through Wednesday. River
levels are rising slowly and we are monitoring them closely. River
flooding may become an issue later this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  83  74  85  73 /  80  90  80  80  50
Panama City   74  83  76  85  74 /  90 100  90  80  40
Dothan        71  78  71  81  70 /  80  90  90  80  40
Albany        71  78  73  82  72 /  70  90  80  90  50
Valdosta      73  81  73  84  73 /  60  80  60  90  40
Cross City    73  85  74  86  75 /  60  80  60  90  60
Apalachicola  76  84  77  85  75 /  90  90  90  80  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Jackson-
     Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-North Walton-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-South
     Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Baker-Calhoun-
     Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee-Geneva.

GM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico
     Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for Apalachee Bay
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...IG
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Barry

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
642 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW SANTA ROSA BEACH  30.42N 86.24W
09/15/2020                   WALTON             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEAL CIR FLOODED NEAR WHISPER LN.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
644 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N TURQUOISE BEACH     30.42N 86.31W
09/15/2020                   WALTON             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DRIFTWOOD CT/DRIFTWOOD POINT RD FLOODED.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
646 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MIRAMAR BEACH           30.38N 86.36W
09/15/2020                   WALTON             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            N GERONIMO/CREST DR FLOODED.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
648 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW MIRAMAR BEACH     30.39N 86.38W
09/15/2020                   WALTON             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING AT N LAKE POINT RD/ SHORE DR.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
654 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E SEAGROVE BEACH      30.31N 86.09W
09/15/2020                   WALTON             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD FLOODING REPORTED AT BUDS LN/HWY 30A.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
657 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E SANTA ROSA BEACH    30.39N 86.17W
09/15/2020                   WALTON             FL   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            OUTSIDE LANE OF 331 NEAR CHAT HOLLEY RD
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

RH