Tornado Warning 62, NWS Tallahassee, FL

771 
WWUS52 KTAE 160850
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
350 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

FLC005-013-160900-
/O.EXP.KTAE.TO.W.0062.000000T0000Z-200916T0900Z/
Bay FL-Calhoun FL-
350 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BAY AND SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN
COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 400 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for the Panhandle
of Florida.

LAT...LON 3044 8549 3046 8549 3050 8533 3026 8527
      3022 8540 3044 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 0850Z 165DEG 46KT 3049 8543 

$$

04-MCD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
426 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM [Through Tonight]...

Hurricane Sally continues to move slowly to the north and
northeast at around 2 MPH, although it appears to have gained a
little speed and a landfall along the Alabama coast is close at
hand. It has been steadily raining over our western Florida
panhandle counties where flash flood warnings continue into the
morning hours. A mesonet site reported over 11 inches of rainfall
in southern Walton county after 2 AM ET. A gust of 43 mph was
reported at ECP airport last evening. Many special marine warnings
were issued for waterspouts overnight as well as several tornado
warnings issued just inland and along the coast of the FL
panhandle into Bay and Gulf counties.

The track of Sally will slowly move north and northeast into
southeast Alabama Wednesday night. The heaviest of rainfall will
continue in our FL panhandle and SE AL counties with lesser
amounts east of the Flint and Apalachicola rivers. Localized storm
total rainfall amounts up to 20 inches through Thursday night
with potentially catastrophic flooding possible; more on hydro in
the section below.

Tropical storm force winds will be felt across western Florida
panhandle and southeast Alabama today and tonight. This, coupled
with moist soils and heavy rainfall, could lead to down trees and
powerlines and power outages.

The tornado threat will continue today east of the center which
will encompass much of the area. SPC has a bulk of the area in a
slight risk from Panama City to Dothan to Albany to Tallahassee.
Would expect to have more of a tornado threat beginning this
morning with destabilization.

For a list of active watches, warnings, and advisories, please
scroll to the bottom of this discussion product.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Wednesday]...

Sally will keep moving northeastward into central Georgia later
Thursday and into the Carolinas Friday. Will keep high rain
chances for this time period but overall amounts will begin to
decrease some. Sally will merge with a frontal boundary later
Friday and Saturday as it heads into the Atlantic. That front and
northwest winds will filter in for the weekend with some
overrunning cloud and rainfall through the weekend. A punch of dry
air will push that front south and east at the beginning of the
next work week. If that solution holds, highs should only reach
the upper 70s throughout the weekend into early next week with
abundant cloud cover and on and off rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Thursday]

Hurricane Sally is slowly drifting towards the southern Alabama
coastline early this morning. The official track from NHC has
Sally moving into southern and southeast Alabama Wednesday night.
Expect a continuance of low MVFR and IFR in rain and isold storms
this period, especially from TLH-ABY and westward. Winds will also
increase and be gusty through the day; higher wind speeds will be
closer to the track (ECP and DHN) and in heavier rain bands on the
east side of the center.

&&

.MARINE...

Hurricane Sally will continue tracking slowly
northward tonight and is forecast to make landfall west of our
local waters Wednesday morning. Dangerous boating and beach
conditions will continue through mid-week, especially across
west of the Ochlocknee River.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hurricane Sally will move ashore this morning in southern Alabama
and move northeast into central Georgia by Thursday evening.
Rainfall will continue with increased transport winds and high
dispersions closer to the circulation as it moves northeast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

Over the past 48 hours, 4 to 8 inches of rainfall has fallen in
the western Florida panhandle closer to the coast with decreasing
rainfall amounts towards southeast Alabama and southern Georgia.
An eleven inch rainfall amount was reported in southern Walton
county overnight. Rainfall amounts through Thursday night west of
the Flint and Apalachicola rivers will average another 5 to 10
inches with locally higher amounts. Isolated storm total amounts
of 20 inches are certainly possible in the western Florida
panhandle into extreme southeast Alabama. Rainfall amounts will
decrease east of the aforementioned rivers.

Rivers will begin to rise towards flood stage through the next
week, especially those along and downstream of the track of Sally
as it moves further inland. Currently, warnings are issued for the
Choctawhatchee at Bruce, Pea at Ariton and Shoal at Mossy Head.
Expect more rises into flood in these basins and additional basins
with time.

Upgraded the coastal flood advisory to a storm surge warning for
2-4 ft surge at the coast in Walton and Bay counties. Further
along the coast, no changes needed with 1-3 feet still expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   82  74  85  71  85 /  90  90  80  50  50
Panama City   82  76  85  73  86 / 100  90  70  40  40
Dothan        77  71  80  68  82 /  90  90  80  40  40
Albany        77  73  82  71  81 /  90  90  90  50  50
Valdosta      82  73  84  71  84 /  70  70  90  40  60
Cross City    85  74  86  74  87 /  70  70  80  50  60
Apalachicola  83  77  85  74  85 /  90  90  80  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Jackson-
     Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-North Walton-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Storm Surge Warning for South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Baker-Calhoun-
     Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee-Geneva.

GM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico
     Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Franck
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
146 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW BLUE MOUNTAIN BEA 30.35N 86.23W
09/16/2020  M9.75 INCH       WALTON             FL   MESONET

            A RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 9.75 INCHES WAS
            MEASURED BY A MESONET LOCATED AT THE ED
            WALLINE BEACH ACCESS.

&&

LF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
148 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N INLET BEACH         30.28N 86.01W
09/16/2020  M11.01 INCH      WALTON             FL   MESONET

            A RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 11.01 INCHES WAS
            MEASURED BY A MESONET LOCATED AT FSWN INLET
            BEACH.

&&

LF