Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
207 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

Outer bands from Hurricane Sally are currently impacting DHN & TLH
with +RA, while ECP is seeing SHRA. The eastern band will
approach ABY and VLD over the next couple hrs, while ECP is seeing
lighter rain. The western band likely affects TLH & ABY later
this afternoon. As Sally continues tracking NNE, the heaviest rain
should shift to the northern terminals. Strongest winds will be
at DHN (possibly sustained at 30 kts from 0-6Z). MVFR conds, on/off
RA, and gusty winds are forecast, with IFR cigs/vsbys within bands.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [626 AM EDT]...

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM [Through Tonight]...

Hurricane Sally continues to move slowly to the north and
northeast at around 2 MPH, although it appears to have gained a
little speed and a landfall along the Alabama coast is close at
hand. It has been steadily raining over our western Florida
panhandle counties where flash flood warnings continue into the
morning hours. A mesonet site reported over 11 inches of rainfall
in southern Walton county after 2 AM ET. A gust of 43 mph was
reported at ECP airport last evening. Many special marine warnings
were issued for waterspouts overnight as well as several tornado
warnings issued just inland and along the coast of the FL
panhandle into Bay and Gulf counties.

The track of Sally will slowly move north and northeast into
southeast Alabama Wednesday night. The heaviest of rainfall will
continue in our FL panhandle and SE AL counties with lesser
amounts east of the Flint and Apalachicola rivers. Localized storm
total rainfall amounts up to 20 inches through Thursday night
with potentially catastrophic flooding possible; more on hydro in
the section below.

Tropical storm force winds will be felt across western Florida
panhandle and southeast Alabama today and tonight. This, coupled
with moist soils and heavy rainfall, could lead to down trees and
powerlines and power outages.

The tornado threat will continue today east of the center which
will encompass much of the area. SPC has a bulk of the area in a
slight risk from Panama City to Dothan to Albany to Tallahassee.
Would expect to have more of a tornado threat beginning this
morning with destabilization.

For a list of active watches, warnings, and advisories, please
scroll to the bottom of this discussion product.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Wednesday]...

Sally will keep moving northeastward into central Georgia later
Thursday and into the Carolinas Friday. Will keep high rain
chances for this time period but overall amounts will begin to
decrease some. Sally will merge with a frontal boundary later
Friday and Saturday as it heads into the Atlantic. That front and
northwest winds will filter in for the weekend with some
overrunning cloud and rainfall through the weekend. A punch of dry
air will push that front south and east at the beginning of the
next work week. If that solution holds, highs should only reach
the upper 70s throughout the weekend into early next week with
abundant cloud cover and on and off rain chances.

.MARINE...

Hurricane Sally will continue tracking slowly
northward tonight and is forecast to make landfall west of our
local waters Wednesday morning. Dangerous boating and beach
conditions will continue through mid-week, especially across
west of the Ochlocknee River.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hurricane Sally will move ashore this morning in southern Alabama
and move northeast into central Georgia by Thursday evening.
Rainfall will continue with increased transport winds and high
dispersions closer to the circulation as it moves northeast.

.HYDROLOGY...

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

Over the past 48 hours, 4 to 8 inches of rainfall has fallen in
the western Florida panhandle closer to the coast with decreasing
rainfall amounts towards southeast Alabama and southern Georgia.
An eleven inch rainfall amount was reported in southern Walton
county overnight. Rainfall amounts through Thursday night west of
the Flint and Apalachicola rivers will average another 5 to 10
inches with locally higher amounts. Isolated storm total amounts
of 20 inches are certainly possible in the western Florida
panhandle into extreme southeast Alabama. Rainfall amounts will
decrease east of the aforementioned rivers.

Rivers will begin to rise towards flood stage through the next
week, especially those along and downstream of the track of Sally
as it moves further inland. Currently, warnings are issued for the
Choctawhatchee at Bruce, Pea at Ariton and Shoal at Mossy Head.
Expect more rises into flood in these basins and additional basins
with time.

Upgraded the coastal flood advisory to a storm surge warning for
2-4 ft surge at the coast in Walton and Bay counties. Further
along the coast, no changes needed with 1-3 feet still expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  85  71  83  69 /  90  80  40  40  10
Panama City   76  84  73  84  72 /  90  70  40  30  20
Dothan        71  80  68  80  67 /  90  80  40  30  10
Albany        73  82  71  80  69 /  90  90  40  40  10
Valdosta      73  84  71  82  69 /  70  90  40  40  10
Cross City    74  86  74  85  71 /  70  80  50  50  20
Apalachicola  77  85  74  84  72 /  90  80  40  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland
     Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South
     Walton-Washington.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Jackson-North
     Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Storm Surge Warning for South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Baker-Calhoun-
     Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico
     Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for Apalachee Bay
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...IG
MARINE...Franck
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
227 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N BLOUNTSTOWN         30.45N 85.04W
09/16/2020                   CALHOUN            FL   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SR-69 BETWEEN LAMBERT RD AND BLOUNTSTOWN IS
            SHUT DOWN DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W FALLSCHASE          30.46N 84.23W
09/16/2020                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 1
            W FALLSCHASE. TREE REPORTED DOWN ON HOME
            NEAR JAYDELL CIR.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
257 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW PINE PARK         30.83N 84.15W
09/16/2020                   GRADY              GA   UTILITY COMPANY

            TSTM WIND CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES IN
            GRADY COUNTY.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE RALFORD GREENWAY  30.49N 84.16W
09/16/2020                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON MAHAN DRIVE NEAR I-10.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE OVERSTREET         30.04N 85.31W
09/16/2020                   GULF               FL   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WATER OVER CR 386 NEAR JARROTT DANIELS RD.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
318 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW SHARPSTOWN        30.35N 85.11W
09/16/2020                   CALHOUN            FL   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WATER OVER SR-71 NEAR CARLOS PEAVY RD.

&&

RH