River Flood Advisory 46, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
253 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon has resulted in mostly dry conditions for the Mid
State. Several locations are dealing with remnant flooding from
recent heavy rainfall, as creeks and streams slowly start to
recede. Tonight, a mid-level impulse will spark light
precipitation as it glides over the Mid State. With temperatures
dropping, any light rain or drizzle that develops will begin to
mix with snow. Forecast soundings show sufficient ice growth in
the dendritic growth zone, especially after midnight. Surface
temperatures will likely be just above freezing, falling into the
upper 20s and lows 30s by 6 AM. Ground temperatures will be
marginal, so accumulations are expected to remain light. However,
for spots along and north of I-40, do not be surprised to wake up
to a light dusting of snow on grassy and elevated surfaces. The
highest amounts will be focused east of I-65 and along the
Cumberland Plateau. Minor travel impacts are possible during the
Friday morning commute. A Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect
at 9 PM tonight for portions of Middle Tennessee. Please refer to
the advisory for more information.

A few snow showers could linger into the early afternoon on the
Plateau, with everyone else drying out. Friday's air will be about
10 degrees below normal, before warming to near normal on
Saturday. The Plateau may receive a passing shower on Saturday
afternoon, otherwise remaining dry. Sunday will be the pick day
of the weekend as temperatures reach into the 50s. Rain chances
return Monday morning ahead of a cold front, followed by
additional waves of wet weather midweek. The operational GFS/EURO
differ, with the EURO looking much soggier than its counterpart.
For now, the forecast reflects a less ambitious blend of
guidance...though, if the EURO pans out, flooding concerns will
markedly increase next week. QPF from Monday morning through late
week ranges from 2.5 inches across the north to 4 inches in the
south. Our eyes will be on the potential for at least some minor
flooding during this timeframe. Temperatures during the work week
will be near or above normal, feeling somewhat mild for mid
February.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR/IFR conditions will continue through all of this TAF cycle.
Rains are tapering off from west to east, improving vis, but more
light rain, then a changeover to snow is likely this evening for
all mid-state terminals. Some LIFR conditions will be possible for
a few hours during any heavier snow bands, but should be short-
lived.

Winds will begin to pick up this evening as well, as the surface
pressure gradient tightens. Look for west to northwest gusts of
18-20 kts overnight and into the Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      31  40  31  47  30 /  60  20  10  10   0
Clarksville    29  39  29  43  28 /  60  10  10  10   0
Crossville     28  35  26  43  26 /  70  30  10  20  10
Columbia       30  41  30  47  29 /  60  10  10  10   0
Lawrenceburg   31  41  31  48  29 /  60  10  10  10   0
Waverly        29  40  30  45  30 /  60  10  10  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
Friday for Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-
Dickson-Fentress-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Macon-Montgomery-
Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-
Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......Schaper
AVIATION........Unger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
511 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071115-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
511 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Light to moderate rain will continue to affect southeastern Middle
Tennessee this morning. Some flooding of roads and other low lying
areas will continue before waters recede later today.

Light rain is expected to redevelop this evening, then mix with
and change to light snow tonight across Middle Tennessee. A
dusting to a few tenths of an inch is possible, with up to 1 inch
on the Cumberland Plateau.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Several more waves of heavy rainfall are likely from Monday
through Friday of next week, which could lead to additional
significant flooding across the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated until the middle of next
week.

Shamburger