River Flood Advisory 33, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
134 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

.DISCUSSION...

A surface boundary is situated along the Cumberland Plateau early
this morning, with widespread showers still occurring on the warm
side of the front, and only scant activity ongoing farther west.
Even though rainfall rates have diminished, the Flood Watch
remains in effect until noon today. The models hint at some
regeneration by morning, but drier air will work its way in by the
afternoon as a surface low develops over East Tennessee or
southwest Virginia and pulls the front east of the region.
Unfortunately, a strong shortwave will pull into Middle Tennessee
Thursday evening, and this time the atmosphere should be cold
enough for light snow, especially late Thursday night and early
Friday morning. Some accumulation is possible, but amounts should
remain under an inch so we'll not consider an advisory at this
point. All precipitation is expected to exit the mid state by
Friday morning, although a subsequent weak shortwave may bring
additional light precipitation to the mid state on Saturday. Next
week looks to be messy, with a frontal system bringing more rain
to a beleaguered, rain-soaked mid state Monday and Monday evening,
then again Wednesday or Wednesday night and possibly into
Thursday. Total QPF from today though Thursday night of next week
ranges from more than 2 inches around Clarksville to more than 5
inches over parts of the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures will
warm back up next week, so that we'll be in the 60's Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Rainfall will continue to lift off to the east overnight. a strong
shortwave will be on approach on Thursday with colder air
advecting in at all levels. Energy in advance of the shortwave
trough will translate into a period of rain and then snow
beginning on Thursday evening. The snowfall will spread south and
east during the evening and overnight, reaching the CKV area
around 7 pm, BNA area around 10 pm and then CSV around midnight.
The warm ground will limit accumulations on area runways. But
slick spots will develop as lows dip into the upper 20s for many
areas. Otw, snowfall accumulation, mainly on grassy areas will
reach up to a half inch across the north and up to 1 inch across
the Plateau.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      45  33  40  32  47 /  60  50  10  10  20
Clarksville    41  30  39  30  44 /  40  40   0  10  20
Crossville     57  30  36  27  42 /  80  60  10  10  30
Columbia       46  32  41  31  48 /  60  50   0  10  20
Lawrenceburg   47  32  41  31  48 /  70  50   0  10  20
Waverly        42  30  41  31  46 /  50  50   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon CST today for Bedford-Cannon-Clay-Coffee-
Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Jackson-
Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-
Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1054 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-061700-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
1054 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Middle Tennessee
through Noon Thursday. Moderate to heavy rain will continue this
afternoon into tomorrow morning, with an additional 1 to 3 inches
of rain expected. Localized flooding of roads, low lying areas,
and rivers and streams is possible.

Strong to severe storms will be possible between 2 and 9 pm CST
for areas of Middle TN south of I-40. A few storms may contain
winds of 50-60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Light rain may mix with light snow Thursday night into early
Friday morning. A dusting of snow is possible on elevated surfaces
in the Upper Cumberland and on the Cumberland Plateau, but no
accumulation is expected elsewhere.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for this afternoon and evening
across southern and eastern Middle Tennessee due to the potential
for flooding and a few severe storms.

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
831 PM CST WED FEB 05 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEWISBURG               35.45N  86.79W
02/05/2020                   MARSHALL           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADS WERE FLOODED AND SEVERAL WATER RESCUES TOOK PLACE
            ACROSS MARSHALL COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000067

SH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
840 PM CST WED FEB 05 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GAINESBORO              36.36N  85.65W
02/05/2020                   JACKSON            TN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SCATTERED ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000068

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
853 PM CST WED FEB 05 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N SHELBYVILLE         35.53N  86.45W
02/05/2020  M58 MPH          BEDFORD            TN   ASOS

            58 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED BY SHELBYVILLE ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000069

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
933 PM CST WED FEB 05 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LORETTO                 35.08N  87.44W
02/05/2020                   LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE ACROSS MAIN ST

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000070

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
934 PM CST WED FEB 05 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E LAWRENCEBURG        35.25N  87.30W
02/05/2020                   LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOUSE DAMAGED AT 4345 GIMLET RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000071

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1226 AM CST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHELBYVILLE             35.49N  86.45W
02/05/2020                   BEDFORD            TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON APARTMENT BUILDING ON LANDERS STREET

0726 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE CENTERTOWN         35.75N  85.89W
02/05/2020                   WARREN             TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            BARN BLOWN INTO THE ROAD AND NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON
            PIGEON HILL ROAD

0729 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE CENTERTOWN         35.76N  85.86W
02/05/2020                   WARREN             TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND COLUMNS BLOWN OFF PORCHES OF
            HOMES NEAR CRISP SPRINGS ROAD AT SHORT MOUNTAIN ROAD

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW SPARTA            35.90N  85.50W
02/05/2020                   WHITE              TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON HENSLEY CHAPEL ROAD...PARKER
            ROAD...AND CROSSVINE ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000072
EVENT NUMBER OHX2000073
EVENT NUMBER OHX2000074
EVENT NUMBER OHX2000075

SHAMBURGER