River Flood Advisory 41, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
134 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

.DISCUSSION...

A surface boundary is situated along the Cumberland Plateau early
this morning, with widespread showers still occurring on the warm
side of the front, and only scant activity ongoing farther west.
Even though rainfall rates have diminished, the Flood Watch
remains in effect until noon today. The models hint at some
regeneration by morning, but drier air will work its way in by the
afternoon as a surface low develops over East Tennessee or
southwest Virginia and pulls the front east of the region.
Unfortunately, a strong shortwave will pull into Middle Tennessee
Thursday evening, and this time the atmosphere should be cold
enough for light snow, especially late Thursday night and early
Friday morning. Some accumulation is possible, but amounts should
remain under an inch so we'll not consider an advisory at this
point. All precipitation is expected to exit the mid state by
Friday morning, although a subsequent weak shortwave may bring
additional light precipitation to the mid state on Saturday. Next
week looks to be messy, with a frontal system bringing more rain
to a beleaguered, rain-soaked mid state Monday and Monday evening,
then again Wednesday or Wednesday night and possibly into
Thursday. Total QPF from today though Thursday night of next week
ranges from more than 2 inches around Clarksville to more than 5
inches over parts of the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures will
warm back up next week, so that we'll be in the 60's Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Rainfall will continue to lift off to the east overnight. a strong
shortwave will be on approach on Thursday with colder air
advecting in at all levels. Energy in advance of the shortwave
trough will translate into a period of rain and then snow
beginning on Thursday evening. The snowfall will spread south and
east during the evening and overnight, reaching the CKV area
around 7 pm, BNA area around 10 pm and then CSV around midnight.
The warm ground will limit accumulations on area runways. But
slick spots will develop as lows dip into the upper 20s for many
areas. Otw, snowfall accumulation, mainly on grassy areas will
reach up to a half inch across the north and up to 1 inch across
the Plateau.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      45  33  40  32  47 /  60  50  10  10  20
Clarksville    41  30  39  30  44 /  40  40   0  10  20
Crossville     57  30  36  27  42 /  80  60  10  10  30
Columbia       46  32  41  31  48 /  60  50   0  10  20
Lawrenceburg   47  32  41  31  48 /  70  50   0  10  20
Waverly        42  30  41  31  46 /  50  50   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon CST today for Bedford-Cannon-Clay-Coffee-
Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Jackson-
Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-
Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
511 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071115-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
511 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Light to moderate rain will continue to affect southeastern Middle
Tennessee this morning. Some flooding of roads and other low lying
areas will continue before waters recede later today.

Light rain is expected to redevelop this evening, then mix with
and change to light snow tonight across Middle Tennessee. A
dusting to a few tenths of an inch is possible, with up to 1 inch
on the Cumberland Plateau.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Several more waves of heavy rainfall are likely from Monday
through Friday of next week, which could lead to additional
significant flooding across the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated until the middle of next
week.

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