River Flood Advisory 29, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
730 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

&&

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

Main line of storms extends from Auburntown to Manchester. Looking
at a comparison of 23z and 00z instability parameters along and in
advance of that aforementioned line, we see a decrease in
instability levels. Helicity values, and surface capes are slowly
decreasing. Showalter are slowly increasing. LAL shows a slow
decrease in frequency and coverage as well.

The main sfc low is now over central MS. The event looks as though
it will unfold toward more of a flood threat across our Plateau.
As the sfc low moves across the area later tonight, rainfall in
our east may intensify once again. The flood watch still looks
good at this point. As for the tor watch, we will continue to
slowly clear the counties from west to east across our far south.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED /
FXUS64 KOHX 052349
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
549 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

UPDATE...
FOR MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Stationary frontal boundary currently draped from sw-ne across the
mid state. Latest sfc analysis places a surface low near Tupelo
MS. This feature will ride northeastward overnight and bring an
increasing threat of heavy rainfall. Additionally, thunderstorm
activity will also be possible along and to the southeast of the
sfc low track. Rainfall will be heavy at times across southern
middle TN and the central and southern Plateau. Therefore, the CSV
area could experience some tstm activity with the potential for
higher wind gusts.

Further northwest across the remaining taf sites, these areas will
be to the northwest of the low track. Thus, tstm activity is less
likely. However, some heavier rainfall will still be possible for
the BNA and MQY areas.

Otw, look for cloudiness and shower activity to persist through
the day on Thursday. Beyond the 24 hr taf period, look for the
potential for some snowfall on Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      46  48  33  41  34 /  90  40  40  10  20
Clarksville    40  42  31  40  32 /  80  30  40  10  20
Crossville     57  60  31  37  28 / 100  80  60  20  20
Columbia       47  49  32  43  34 /  90  50  40  10  20
Lawrenceburg   50  50  33  43  34 /  90  70  40  10  20
Waverly        41  43  30  42  33 /  90  30  40  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Bedford-Cannon-Clay-
Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Jackson-
Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-
Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1054 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-061700-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
1054 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Middle Tennessee
through Noon Thursday. Moderate to heavy rain will continue this
afternoon into tomorrow morning, with an additional 1 to 3 inches
of rain expected. Localized flooding of roads, low lying areas,
and rivers and streams is possible.

Strong to severe storms will be possible between 2 and 9 pm CST
for areas of Middle TN south of I-40. A few storms may contain
winds of 50-60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Light rain may mix with light snow Thursday night into early
Friday morning. A dusting of snow is possible on elevated surfaces
in the Upper Cumberland and on the Cumberland Plateau, but no
accumulation is expected elsewhere.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for this afternoon and evening
across southern and eastern Middle Tennessee due to the potential
for flooding and a few severe storms.

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
807 PM CST WED FEB 05 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LAWRENCEBURG            35.25N  87.34W
02/05/2020                   LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RESCUE ON JAP RD. UNCONFIRMED REPORT OF PEOPLE
            TRAPPED IN A VEHICHLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000060

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
809 PM CST WED FEB 05 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SW LIVINGSTON         36.33N  85.40W
02/05/2020                   OVERTON            TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MAN WAS RESCUED ON HARDYS CHAPEL RD AFTER DRIVING OFF
            ROAD INTO WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000061

SH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
811 PM CST WED FEB 05 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW MURFREESBORO       35.82N  86.43W
02/05/2020                   RUTHERFORD         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER RESCUE...BOTTOM FLOOR OF A HOME IS FLOODED ALONG
            JACKSON RIDGE RD IN ROCKVALE COMMUNITY. PEOPLE TRAPPED
            ON 2ND FLOOR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000062

21

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