Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Twin Cities, MN

998 
WWUS53 KMPX 142330
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNC085-142340-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0132.000000T0000Z-200814T2345Z/
McLeod MN-
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MCLEOD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central
Minnesota.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
east central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4489 9382 4502 9401 4516 9380 4496 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 234DEG 33KT 4503 9381 

$$

MNC019-053-171-142345-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0132.000000T0000Z-200814T2345Z/
Wright MN-Hennepin MN-Carver MN-
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WRIGHT...WEST CENTRAL HENNEPIN AND NORTH CENTRAL
CARVER COUNTIES...

At 630 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Delano, or 11
miles south of Buffalo, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Orono, Rockford and Maple Plain around 640 PM CDT.
  Independence around 645 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Greenfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central
Minnesota.

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted act quickly and move to a place
of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a basement or small
interior room.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4489 9382 4502 9401 4516 9380 4496 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 234DEG 33KT 4503 9381 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TDH

716 
WWUS53 KMPX 142343 RRB
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNC019-053-171-142353-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0132.000000T0000Z-200814T2345Z/
Wright MN-Hennepin MN-Carver MN-
643 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WRIGHT...WEST
CENTRAL HENNEPIN AND NORTH CENTRAL CARVER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645
PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central
Minnesota.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
east central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4489 9382 4502 9401 4516 9380 4496 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 234DEG 33KT 4509 9370 

$$

TDH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
324 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through tonight) Issued at 300 PM CDT
Fri Aug 14 2020

The key messages are the risk for severe storms this afternoon
across western Minnesota, transitioning eastward during the
evening hours. The main threat for tornadoes is across western
Minnesota, where there is a tornado watch in effect. The risk
transitions to more of a wind threat this evening as storms are
expected to form a line as they move east. There is also a risk of
large hail.

Complex severe weather scenario this afternoon, with a surface low
across the Minnesota/SD/ND border and a warm front draped out
eastward ahead of it. A cold front extended to the southwest, and
this will be the main focus for surface-based convection. The warm
sector in between had residual influences from the cold pool of
the morning convection, and was characterized by southeast winds,
and low T/Td depressions. This led to fairly high storm relative
helicity values and lower cloud bases. Combine that with the
building instability, and this set the stage for the potential of
tornadic thunderstorms as indicated by the Sig/Effective Sig Tor
parameters of 3 to 6. A tornado watch is in effect until 8PM this
evening for parts of west central Minnesota.

This watch may transition to a Severe Thunderstorm watch as storms
become more widespread, develop a cold pool, and transition into a
line of storms. We'll have to see how the convection evolved over
the next few hours before making this decision.

In summary, the parameter space is favorable for organize severe
weather, including tornadoes. The one element that gives some
pause is the idea that the HiRes CAMS show low Updraft Helicity
values, and the area of instability becomes more narrow and lower
with time this evening. In other words, the potential is there,
but this is certainly not a guarantee for widespread severe
weather.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri
Aug 14 2020

There are few if any weather concerns in the extended forecast.
High pressure will build across the region in the wake if this
cold front. That will lead to clear skies with cooler temperatures
and lower humidity values. There is a small chance for some
showers across Lake Superior Saturday night, but those should be
northeast of the forecast area.

A shortwave trough in northwest flow will slide across the Upper
Midwest, but this too should pass through dry. In fact, the
region remains dry through Monday. On Tuesday another shortwave
trough will move across the region, and this could produce a
chance for showers or thunderstorms. Overall expect a fairly dry
forecast into next week, which lines up with the WPC QPF forecast
in the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

VFR conditions developing this afternoon, but a cold front located
in far eastern South Dakota will move through and be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms, as well as a stout wind shift from the
south to the west/northwest. These thunderstorms could produce
gusty winds as they pass through the region. Later tonight expect
VFR conditions which should last into Saturday.

KMSP...
Narrow layer of MVFR stratus left over from this morning's
convection to the north will dissipate and should have VFR
conditions this afternoon until a cold front arrives this evening.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front, and
winds will quickly shift and become west/northwesterly once the
front passes through.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1254 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
151800-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1254 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop this afternoon in
western Minnesota, moving into eastern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin during the evening. Numerous severe thunderstorms are
possible with this activity. Damaging winds and very large hail
are the primary hazards, but a few tornadoes are also possible.
The severe weather threat will be greatest west of the Interstate
35 corridor in Minnesota before storms weaken in Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and this
evening.

jrb

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
542 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W LITTLE FALLS        45.98N 94.41W
08/14/2020  M72 MPH          MORRISON           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED WITH PERSONAL WEATHER SENSOR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             GAYLORD                 44.55N 94.22W
08/14/2020  M1.00 INCH       SIBLEY             MN   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TORNADO          3 NE BROWNTON           44.76N 94.29W
08/14/2020                   MCLEOD             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO WAS REPORTED TO JUST BE TOUCHING
            DOWN WEST OF GLENCOE DURING CALL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TORNADO          1 ESE SPICER            45.23N 94.93W
08/14/2020                   KANDIYOHI          MN   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES
            DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF GREEN LAKE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TORNADO          8 ENE SPICER            45.26N 94.79W
08/14/2020                   KANDIYOHI          MN   911 CALL CENTER

            TORNADO STILL REPORTED ON THE GROUND EAST OF
            GREEN LAKE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     TORNADO          6 SSE PAYNESVILLE       45.30N 94.67W
08/14/2020                   MEEKER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO STILL REPORTED ON THE GROUND, WITH
            DEBRIS NOTED IN THE AIR.

&&