Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Twin Cities, MN

054 
WWUS53 KMPX 142136
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
436 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNC041-121-142145-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-200814T2145Z/
Douglas MN-Pope MN-
436 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN DOUGLAS AND NORTH CENTRAL POPE COUNTIES...

At 436 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Parkers Prairie, or 14 miles northeast of Alexandria, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
eastern Douglas and north central Pope Counties, including the
following locations... Alexandria Airport, Nelson, Forada, Garfield,
Miltona, Rose City, Holmes City and Belle River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central and
west central Minnesota.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
the Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4609 9514 4578 9514 4568 9555 4592 9557
      4611 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 225DEG 36KT 4607 9521 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CTG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
324 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through tonight) Issued at 300 PM CDT
Fri Aug 14 2020

The key messages are the risk for severe storms this afternoon
across western Minnesota, transitioning eastward during the
evening hours. The main threat for tornadoes is across western
Minnesota, where there is a tornado watch in effect. The risk
transitions to more of a wind threat this evening as storms are
expected to form a line as they move east. There is also a risk of
large hail.

Complex severe weather scenario this afternoon, with a surface low
across the Minnesota/SD/ND border and a warm front draped out
eastward ahead of it. A cold front extended to the southwest, and
this will be the main focus for surface-based convection. The warm
sector in between had residual influences from the cold pool of
the morning convection, and was characterized by southeast winds,
and low T/Td depressions. This led to fairly high storm relative
helicity values and lower cloud bases. Combine that with the
building instability, and this set the stage for the potential of
tornadic thunderstorms as indicated by the Sig/Effective Sig Tor
parameters of 3 to 6. A tornado watch is in effect until 8PM this
evening for parts of west central Minnesota.

This watch may transition to a Severe Thunderstorm watch as storms
become more widespread, develop a cold pool, and transition into a
line of storms. We'll have to see how the convection evolved over
the next few hours before making this decision.

In summary, the parameter space is favorable for organize severe
weather, including tornadoes. The one element that gives some
pause is the idea that the HiRes CAMS show low Updraft Helicity
values, and the area of instability becomes more narrow and lower
with time this evening. In other words, the potential is there,
but this is certainly not a guarantee for widespread severe
weather.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri
Aug 14 2020

There are few if any weather concerns in the extended forecast.
High pressure will build across the region in the wake if this
cold front. That will lead to clear skies with cooler temperatures
and lower humidity values. There is a small chance for some
showers across Lake Superior Saturday night, but those should be
northeast of the forecast area.

A shortwave trough in northwest flow will slide across the Upper
Midwest, but this too should pass through dry. In fact, the
region remains dry through Monday. On Tuesday another shortwave
trough will move across the region, and this could produce a
chance for showers or thunderstorms. Overall expect a fairly dry
forecast into next week, which lines up with the WPC QPF forecast
in the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

VFR conditions developing this afternoon, but a cold front located
in far eastern South Dakota will move through and be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms, as well as a stout wind shift from the
south to the west/northwest. These thunderstorms could produce
gusty winds as they pass through the region. Later tonight expect
VFR conditions which should last into Saturday.

KMSP...
Narrow layer of MVFR stratus left over from this morning's
convection to the north will dissipate and should have VFR
conditions this afternoon until a cold front arrives this evening.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front, and
winds will quickly shift and become west/northwesterly once the
front passes through.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1254 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
151800-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1254 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop this afternoon in
western Minnesota, moving into eastern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin during the evening. Numerous severe thunderstorms are
possible with this activity. Damaging winds and very large hail
are the primary hazards, but a few tornadoes are also possible.
The severe weather threat will be greatest west of the Interstate
35 corridor in Minnesota before storms weaken in Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and this
evening.

jrb

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1034 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE ALEXANDRIA        45.91N 95.37W
08/14/2020  M3.85 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MN-DS-17 ALEXANDRIA 2.3 N.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1035 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE WESTPORT          45.69N 95.10W
08/14/2020  M3.49 INCH       STEARNS            MN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MN-SR-27 WESTPORT 3ESE.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1036 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE LONG PRAIRIE      46.01N 94.85W
08/14/2020  M3.10 INCH       TODD               MN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MN-TD-12 LONG PRAIRIE 2.1
            NNE.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1037 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW CARLOS             46.01N 95.34W
08/14/2020  M3.03 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION LCLM5 3.2 NW CARLOS.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1038 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BELGRADE                45.45N 95.01W
08/14/2020  M2.81 INCH       STEARNS            MN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MN-SR-50 BELGRADE 0.4 WNW.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1039 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE ALEXANDRIA        45.89N 95.34W
08/14/2020  M2.66 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MN-DS-8 ALEXANDRIA 1ENE.

&&

MKM