Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1211 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Moderate to heavy rainfall was impacting the Missouri Ozarks
early this morning with widespread flooding occurring. Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 5 inches had been reported through 2 am. With rain
continuing and additional rainfall amounts of between 1 and 3
inches expected across the region through this evening, have
expanded the flash Flood Watch across the entire CWA through 7PM.

There has been some indication of a brief rain free period this
morning across far southern Missouri fro the short range models.
This should be rather brief before a strong cold front begins to
move east and bring additional strong to severe thunderstorms and
additional heavy rain to the region through this afternoon.

As the low in the plains begins to lift north, the warm front
that was suppressed south by the ongoing convection should lift
into southwest Missouri. This will continue the chance for severe
storms along with a few brief spin ups possible.

The cold front will move through the region fairly rapidly as the
upper level system lift north. The expectation is for the eastern
portions of the area to see the front and associated strong to
severe storms around daybreak with the front progressing across
the area through the afternoon and be east of the area by late
this afternoon into early this evening. Once again, all models of
severe weather will be possible.

The region will then see clearing tonight with lows in the 50s
across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Wednesday should be rather nice and potentially the only day for
the remainder of the week where showers or thunderstorms won't
impact the area. This will be thanks to a surface high that will
filter through the region behind Tuesdays cold front.

Sadly, the deep southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place
through the coming Memorial Day weekend. The Ozarks will be on
the periphery of upper level high pressure over the southeastern
CONUS. with severe short waves moving through the upper level
flow, and depending on the strength of the high, additional rounds
of showers and storms will be possible. Will need to monitor this
boundary to determine how far north/south the rain will impact.

In general, the remainder of the week with the exception of
Wednesday look to be fairly active and wet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

A couple of line segments of convection were pushing across the
forecast area early this afternoon. The first one has pushed
through SGF within the past hour. The second has pushed through
JLN and was shifting towards SGF by 18z and will linger for an
hour or two. Convection for BBG will be slightly later more likely
between 19z-22z. IFR conditions are expected during the most
intense convection with variable winds of 20 to 40 kts. Outside of
the convection, generally MVFR to VFR conditions and a southerly
wind at 15 to 25 kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-221745-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1239 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

  A line of thunderstorms will push across the Missouri Ozarks
  this afternoon. The strongest storms will likely be over south
  central Missouri, closer to a warm front over far southern
  Missouri. Some severe weather will be possible over south
  central Missouri with damaging wind gusts over 60 mph, large
  hail to the size of quarters and isolated tornadoes can't be
  ruled out either.

  Torrential rain will accompany the storms and will fall on
  already saturated ground from last nights rainfall. This will
  likely runoff as flooding.

  Wind gusts outside of the thunderstorms may gust over 30 mph at
  times this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

  Intermittent storm activity is expected from Wednesday night
  through the coming holiday weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed in the next six hours for
  locations over south central Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1225 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

MOZ090-094-095-211815-
Greene MO-Lawrence MO-Christian MO-
1225 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN...
SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND CENTRAL GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1224 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Marionville, or 7 miles northeast of Aurora, moving northeast at 50
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield...                    Republic...
Aurora...                         Battlefield...
Willard...                        Marionville...
Clever...                         Fair Grove...
Billings...                       Brookline...
Sacville...                       Glidewell...
Ebenezer...                       Bassville...
Bois D'arc...                     Cave Springs...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 60 and 80.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for southwestern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3698 9372 3743 9346 3742 9324 3735 9312
      3699 9348 3699 9361 3692 9362
TIME...MOT...LOC 1724Z 213DEG 43KT 3704 9362

Titus

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
115 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 PM     FLOOD            3 SW SPRINGFIELD        37.16N 93.32W
05/21/2019                   GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER ON THE ROADWAY AT BATTLEFIELD AND
            KANSAS EXPRESSWAY. REPORT OF STALLED CAR DUE
            TO THE HIGH WATER ON ROADWAY PER MEDIA
            PARTNER.

&&

CKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW BATTLEFIELD        37.16N 93.42W
05/21/2019                   GREENE             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            12 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN AND 10 INCH
            DIAMETER TREE UPROOTED ON ORR ST.

&&

CKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
149 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE SPRINGFIELD       37.20N 93.27W
05/21/2019                   GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            TOP OF TREE SNAPPED OFF IN ROUNTREE
            NEIGHBORHOOD OF SPRINGFIELD. PICTURE VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

CKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
153 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIR GROVE              37.39N 93.15W
05/21/2019                   GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            PICTURES OF 3 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES
            BROKEN ON ORCHARD ROAD IN FAIR GROVE.

&&

CKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW BUFFALO           37.64N 93.12W
05/21/2019  E1.59 INCH       DALLAS             MO   COCORAHS

            REPORT OF 1.59 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 2
            HOURS.

&&

KP