Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
645 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

All modes of severe weather and flooding are expected this evening
into tonight. A warm front has pushed into the southern portions
of the area this afternoon and is expected to make little
northward progress through this evening and early tonight. Along
and south of that front, storms will try to become surface based
with all modes of severe weather possible. Strongest storms will
be over southwest MO and extreme southeast KS where large hail to
2", damaging winds to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be
possible. This is very conditional on the evolution of upstream
convection, though, and will need to be watched closely. Flooding
will also be a significant concern over the southwester part of
the CWA as training convection and ample moisture coincide. A
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect.

A line of severe thunderstorms is then expected to move west to
east across the area on Tuesday, starting midday and going through
the evening. Strong winds and an isolated tornado will be the
primary threat with large hail also being possible. Additional
heavy rain, although brief given the speed of the line, will lead
to additional flooding where excessive rain falls into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

No significant changes were made to the long term forecast.
Looking at above normal temperatures with highs in the 80s and
chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly NW of I-44.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Occasional showers and thunderstorms will continue through much of
tonight, some strong to severe. A break in thunderstorms is
expected Tuesday morning before additional storms move west to
east through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MOZ066-077>079-
     088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
313 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-212015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
313 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Extreme flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact areas
 mainly along and west of Highway 65 into this evening as an
 unstable airmass interacts with warm front moving northward
 across the region. The main threat will be large hail to the
 size of golf balls and damaging winds up to 70 mph.

 Late this evening, and tonight, severe weather is expected to
 continue with all modes of severe weather possible.

 Moderate to heavy rainfall will bring the potential for
 flooding, mainly along and west of Highway 65 this afternoon
 through tonight. Multiple rounds of storms are expected to occur
 with 1 to 4 inches of rain possible. Some localized rainfall
 amounts may exceed 5 inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

 On Tuesday another round of strong to severe storms will be
 possible across the entire region as a strong storm system
 approaches the area. All modes of severe weather will be
 possible.

 The potential for flooding will continue Tuesday, as additional
 moderate to heavy rainfall is expected.

 Intermittent storm activity is expected through the end of next
 weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed in the next six hours for
  southwest Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
842 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PITTSBURG               37.41N 94.70W
05/20/2019                   CRAWFORD           KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED DUE TO
            HEAVY RAIN.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
851 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N ORONOGO             37.21N 94.47W
05/20/2019                   JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

            FLOODING AT KAFIR AND O INTERSECTION NEAR
            ORONOGO, MO. VIA SOCIAL MEDIAL.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
855 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW MARCH             37.51N 93.14W
05/20/2019                   DALLAS             MO   PUBLIC

            BARN LIFTED UP SLIGHTLY. TIN OFF OF THE MILK
            BARN ROOF, TORE TREES OUT AND TOOK OUT A
            SMALL POLE BARN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
916 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW JOPLIN             37.10N 94.53W
05/20/2019  M3.46 INCH       JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

            3.46 INCHES OF RAIN AND CLIMBING.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
917 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW JOPLIN             37.09N 94.53W
05/20/2019                   JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

            CAR UNDER WATER NEAR MC DONALDS.

&&

TEO